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Participant ○

Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@bilperk wrote:

I agree with Bentley.  It was not a personal attack.  The article warned against using stock tips.  Bentley agrees with it and the other warnings.  Intruder then suggests he got a good stock tip from his son without any background as to if his son is even in the investment business.  He then claims he gave his son another stock tip.  Both tips just happen to be for two of the hottest stocks ever.  I think it is fair to ask where he got one of the worst stock tips ever as a way of showing that tips are only hit or miss.

Those who don't like Bentley's (ANYBODY'S) posts, and say so often, should perhaps just quit reading them.


+1

I would like to generalize that to a lot of rancor that appears in posts. If you don't agree with the poster, unless he/she is just plain obnoxious, just SKIP THEIR POSTS. I personally like to hear even posts that I disagree with. Maybe I am wrong and there is something to learn. I am open to letting them try  to teach/convince me which are the primary reasons I follow these forums.   :-)))

PS: If I may make a suggestion, would it be better to attempt a personal message to the poster, if they accept them, than an angry post or reporting them to M* as a first attempt?

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

Judger wrote:

"Tell me how well that worked in early 2000 and 2008-2009. How long did it take you to recover then?"

Recover from what, Judger?

I retired in July 2000 at age 58.  I had a nice chunk of guaranteed income (thank you TIAA), no Social Security, but modest systematic withdrawal from a balanced portfolio of unannuitized mutual funds  including cap gains from equity and fixed income.

Now I have guaranteed income (it's grown modestly), Social Security (the full shot), RMDs from two sources (unannuitized) of  tax-deferred investments, and a taxable trust portfolio.  What is my problem supposed to be? :-)

Cheers.

Bob

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

Bob, I am glad for you. Ya didn't have any problem in those years. But Ya ain 't fair. You have all of those nice university benies. What if you were like me or others with only SS, no pension and you just lost your a.s in early 2000 or 2008-2009?

Maybe at 58 you could recover after a few years with your scenario. But what if you were 50, 65, 70.5, 72 with another scenario - in your late 40's looking for a jobs for 10 years? Luckily I had almost 15 years of TIAA vested contributions and years of extra supplementary contributions.


@GLI2019 wrote:

Judger wrote:

"Tell me how well that worked in early 2000 and 2008-2009. How long did it take you to recover then?"

Recover from what, Judger?

I retired in July 2000 at age 58.  I had a nice chunk of guaranteed income (thank you TIAA), no Social Security, but modest systematic withdrawal from a balanced portfolio of unannuitized mutual funds  including cap gains from equity and fixed income.

Now I have guaranteed income (it's grown modestly), Social Security (the full shot), RMDs from two sources (unannuitized) of  tax-deferred investments, and a taxable trust portfolio.  What is my problem supposed to be? :-)

Cheers.

Bob



late 40's and looking for jobs for 10 years.

 

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

I agree that one should not watch one's investment go to zero in the name of a buy-and-hold investment, but should have a cut off price beyond which one should refuse to let the investment go down in value (i.e., sell).  Yes, the investment might spring back in price right after you sell and there could be all sorts of other what ifs - one should answer those what ifs with an alternative but without the loser investment.

Rules and identifying oneself as this or that aside, I think success in investment is more about knowing oneself.

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@Anitya wrote:

I agree that one should not watch one's investment go to zero in the name of a buy-and-hold investment, but should have a cut off price beyond which one should refuse to let the investment go down in value (i.e., sell).  Yes, the investment might spring back in price right after you sell and there could be all sorts of other what ifs - one should answer those what ifs with an alternative but without the loser investment.

Rules and identifying oneself as this or that aside, I think success in investment is more about knowing oneself.


+1

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

Hi Judger,

You understand: there was no pension, but there was an extremely generous match (I put 5% in and the U put in 10%) and I rode TIAA-CREF for 32 years.

I was not one to underestimate the value of using TIAA Traditional as a substitute for a pension. This alone reduced the need to take on undue risk.

But from a career standpoint I was what Moshe Milevsky characterized as having a bond like career, for which I am grateful. No doubt this is why the 4% rule never made any sense to me personally.  It seemed unduly restrictive.

Bob

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@bilperk wrote:

I agree with Bentley.  It was not a personal attack.  The article warned against using stock tips.  Bentley agrees with it and the other warnings.  Intruder then suggests he got a good stock tip from his son without any background as to if his son is even in the investment business.  He then claims he gave his son another stock tip.  Both tips just happen to be for two of the hottest stocks ever.  I think it is fair to ask where he got one of the worst stock tips ever as a way of showing that tips are only hit or miss.

Those who don't like Bentley's posts, and say so often, should perhaps just quit reading them.


Bill

the reason I invested in AAPL is because my son who only owns AAPL products such as an iPhone and lap top explained to me why AAPL made superior products that appealed to millions of customers. Today I have an AAPL iPhone and iPad and am satisfied with their performance as are millions of AAPL customers. I researched  AMZN and realized how it controlled the market for retail products And services. I invested in KMI by doing my own research on the Company. No one gave me a tip. Why did you presume that I invested in KMI because of a tip? Because Brantley put that thought in your mind? If that’s the reason you are not too bright.

So Bill I am going to wait for you to make my day with a Future post for which I will follow all of Ryan’s rules for proper etiquette in my response.   

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

The article is good by making generic points but...

1) Any article that has words Best, Greatest, Biggest in it title is a suspect, the intention is to draw attention and then you realize you already read similar articles many times.

2) The biggest compliant of the article is day trading but most investors don't do day trading and many trade only a portion of their portfolio.  If you want to make your case mention the average + the extreme, not only the extreme.

3) I don't believe in timing the market for accumulators but retirees who made it and know they have a very high chance to sustain their lifestyle even with low return and don't care to maximize their return, I don't see why not use timing to protect their portfolio.

 

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

I agree with Bentley.  It was not a personal attack.  The article warned against using stock tips.  Bentley agrees with it and the other warnings.  Intruder then suggests he got a good stock tip from his son without any background as to if his son is even in the investment business.  He then claims he gave his son another stock tip.  Both tips just happen to be for two of the hottest stocks ever.  I think it is fair to ask where he got one of the worst stock tips ever as a way of showing that tips are only hit or miss.

Those who don't like Bentley's posts, and say so often, should perhaps just quit reading them.


Bill

the reason I invested in AAPL is because my son who only owns AAPL products such as an iPhone and lap top explained to me why AAPL made superior products that appealed to millions of customers. Today I have an AAPL iPhone and iPad and am satisfied with their performance as are millions of AAPL customers. I researched  AMZN and realized how it controlled the market for retail products And services. I invested in KMI by doing my own research on the Company. No one gave me a tip. Why did you presume that I invested in KMI because of a tip? Because Brantley put that thought in your mind? If that’s the reason you are not too bright.

So Bill I am going to wait for you to make my day with a Future post for which I will follow all of Ryan’s rules for proper etiquette in my response.   


Well, @Intruder , I'm sure few of us are as "bright" as you are but,  I'm bright enough to read.  I did not presume that you got a tip, I said that, based on your post, it was fair for Bentley to ask where you got a the KMI tip, and that it wasn't a personal attack, unlike questioning someone's "brightness".

BTW, just a personal opinion, but neither of those "tips" were anything but pure speculation which was the point of the warning.

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

Thank you, Learner, for the link. It is very informative and reaffirms my savings approach. Personally, I settled on an AA (+/- 10%) and rebalance when the actual portfolio's AA goes beyond the boundaries. It worked for me in 2008 and 2020 (when I rebalanced in March). With the exception of having removed some money from the table (i.e. a transfer from LC growth to traditional), I am waiting to pass the +10% boundary to rebalance again.   

I wish good luck to those that like to time the markets but I am not going to gamble my retirement savings to make a little bit more. It is just me. 

Stay healthy    

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

We will stay the course. Just like we have for 35 years.

Once per year we fill our CASH bucket to 5% of port by selling shares of our 6 ETFs.

We'll then rebalance them if necessary by selling and buying shares of these same ETFs.

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@FD1001 wrote:

The article is good by making generic points but...

1) Any article that has words Best, Greatest, Biggest in it title is a suspect, the intention is to draw attention and then you realize you already read similar articles many times.

2) The biggest compliant of the article is day trading but most investors don't do day trading and many trade only a portion of their portfolio.  If you want to make your case mention the average + the extreme, not only the extreme.

3) I don't believe in timing the market for accumulators but retirees who made it and know they have a very high chance to sustain their lifestyle even with low return and don't care to maximize their return, I don't see why not use timing to protect their portfolio.

 

 


+1

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@bilperk wrote:

@retiredat48 wrote:

 

IMO, the greatest danger investors face, long term, is the country's sped-up move toward socialism, in the extreme sense, and the risk of wealth confiscation of various forms.  Such as nationalizing companies/industries; wealth taxes; IRA surtaxes; dollar caps on all forms of assets and their benefits; inability to go elsewhere with your wealth, etc.  You may simply be prohibited from owning anything exceeding a dollar limit.  Most recent example...elimination of "stretch IRA features."  Just one of many coming.  Remember, Social Security was once non-taxable income to recipients.

R48

 


Socialism is form of government and so implicitly political.  If other decide to run with this it will quickly devolve into insults.

 

 

 


My bold added above...

I disagree.

I am not making any such "political" statement, nor encouraging others to do so.

It is well known that one of the RISKS that the SEC requires mutual funds to put in their prospectus is POLITICAL RISK.  This is often described at length in international funds prospectuses.  Like, invest your money in China and you may not get it back. 

IMO the USA has sped up its trends such that for early retirees, and especially younger investors, political risk is likely the reason they will have difficulty accumulating wealth, and especially in keeping it.  Of course could write a term paper, or book, on this.  But "political risk" to wealth is topic one re investing, in my family, even though I have three age forties "progressive daughters."

R48

 

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

Timing the market has different definitions, approaches, and scale for different people. 

If it works for that individual, that is all it counts.

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

When you live in a tiny 3rd world country there is ALWAYS political risk of losing EVERYTHING. 

I'm very concerned about the USA vs China situation. 

Our equity allocation is 18% EM. EM holds 45% Chinese/Hong Kong equities. So we hold 8% of equity in Chinese/Hong Kong stocks.

Without considering political risk we like our world equity allocation.

Considering political risk makes us want to limit equities to North America (I think México is going to be the new and better "China").

We already limit our FI to USD denominated investment grade bonds and cash.

 

 

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@retiredat48 wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@retiredat48 wrote:

 

IMO, the greatest danger investors face, long term, is the country's sped-up move toward socialism, in the extreme sense, and the risk of wealth confiscation of various forms.  Such as nationalizing companies/industries; wealth taxes; IRA surtaxes; dollar caps on all forms of assets and their benefits; inability to go elsewhere with your wealth, etc.  You may simply be prohibited from owning anything exceeding a dollar limit.  Most recent example...elimination of "stretch IRA features."  Just one of many coming.  Remember, Social Security was once non-taxable income to recipients.

R48

 


Socialism is form of government and so implicitly political.  If other decide to run with this it will quickly devolve into insults.

 

 

 


My bold added above...

I disagree.

I am not making any such "political" statement, nor encouraging others to do so.

It is well known that one of the RISKS that the SEC requires mutual funds to put in their prospectus is POLITICAL RISK.  This is often described at length in international funds prospectuses.  Like, invest your money in China and you may not get it back. 

IMO the USA has sped up its trends such that for early retirees, and especially younger investors, political risk is likely the reason they will have difficulty accumulating wealth, and especially in keeping it.  Of course could write a term paper, or book, on this.  But "political risk" to wealth is topic one re investing, in my family, even though I have three age forties "progressive daughters."

R48

 


@retiredat48 ,

Anyone who doesn't know that fear of socialism at this time is both political AND partisan is either being disingenuous or just not payin' attention.  SEC political risk does show up in International funds and investments.  But you said " the country's sped-up move toward socialism, in the extreme sense"..." which is not international political risk.  I have not seen political risk listed for United States funds. 

"Social services are not socialism.  Changing the rules on investments and withdrawal methods are not socialism.  By definition, socialism refers to a form of economic production, whereby workers co-own and co-produce goods and services, sharing in the profits—as opposed to capitalism, wherein a business owner owns all of the tools and other means of production and keeps all of the profits while paying workers a wage."  

If you are suggesting we are trending toward that then that is political.

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face


@Bentley wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@Bentley wrote:

@Learner wrote:

It has been slow here recently.  An article some of you might find useful:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/07/the-greatest-danger-investors-face/

 


+1

Bingo

Favorite snippets

"It’s estimated that only 1% of day traders studied earn profits over time."

Day-trading is an easy target but there are far more subtle forms of speculation investors can succumb to during times of market stress:
Abandoning your plan. Investment plans can be helpful when things are going well to keep you in check from straying too far from your comfort zone but they really earn their keep during a crisis.

Looking for stock tips. I’m sure it’s happened but you don’t hear too many stories about people who became fabulously wealthy based exclusively on stock tips.

Investing with unrealistic assumptions. One of the most important things you can do as an investor to stay the course is set reasonable expectations up front.

Timing the market. I get the appeal of market timing. Think about how much more money you could have if you could just sell before stocks crash and then buy them back at the bottom!
Volatile markets and economic crises tempt investors with the prospects of market timing even more than normal times as recency and hindsight bias shift into overdrive.
Alas, the only people who sell at the top and buy at the bottom are liars and people who are eventually going to make a big mistake at the worst possible time.

 

 


My one stock tip was from my son who told me to buy AAPL when it was at 90. I have continued to buy more when price is depressed. I repaid him by telling him to buy AMZN.


 

 Where did you get the idea to buy KMI at $42?


This post has been reported as abusive by several of your fellow community members. Apparently this is something you like to bring up a lot. I'm giving you a 72-hour timeout. This is not an isolated incident.

Please let the KMI thing go. 

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

The handsome man with the bow tie speaks!

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

Asking a simple question, "Where did you get the idea to buy KMI at $42?" is abusive?

Okie Dokie

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Re: The Greatest Danger Investors Face

Bentley, I figure you as intelligent person, but for any M* member to think they don't understand you aren't in some way sticking a knife into a wound would be far fetched. 

I fully understand why some investors prefer indexing over active investing, but most investors here on M* are not so hardcore to suggest their way is the only way to achieve their goals.

How many times did you start threads on AT&T with your concerns, but didn't even hold the stock? My mistake was bothering to respond. Those days are over.

Peace is a choice.

Out

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