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Participant ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Update:  IYR up 5.5% today.  If there is no internal development, TREA may be up about 75 cents (or 0.17%) today.

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Nat wrote:

"Have I lost money? Yes, big time. But, what is money worth when people are dying?"

I hear you.  I've been sending more money to the kids and to support local health services and services for the homeless (food banks and the like).

It's been a fabulous ten-year ride.

But, Nat, just for fun I offer a contrarian thesis on retail (which you can demolish as you wish):

I have been watching SPG.  It's been moving fast.  It's way undervalued (even after today).

So here is the thesis: after so much social distancing, which continues for the time being, many people (we are a gregarious nation) will want a lot more human contact.  Where can you get it quickly?  At the malls (movies, eating, shopping, or simply hanging out).

Fire away! :-)

Bob

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


@ECEPROF wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

With only 4+ trading days left in Q1, I ended up doing this.

Today is a good* up day [with expectations of $2 trillion Stimulus bill clearing the Senate], tomorrow may be up day too [with expectations of Stimulus bill clearing the House], or it may be all in the market already. Who knows about the rest of Q1 days in this roller coaster market.

*Half-hour made the adjective good unnecessary.


Wall street hyped this deal in the morning so that they can sell anything and everything to the main street. But then, the reality sets in. CNN is showing the number of deaths continuously updating the numbers. I saw this morning the number 687, and now it is above 800. People are dying every hour. There is nothing to celebrate yet. Wall Street seemed to be detached from the main street.

I understand that the peak death rate is more than 3 weeks away. We do not even know yet how the economy will look like then and the future. Again, I want to stress the point that this is not a financial issue where you can throw money at and solve the problem.

Have I lost money? Yes, big time. But, what is money worth when people are dying?

 


Not being callous, Nat, but put that number in perspective with how many have/will die from ordinary flu every this year. I get this real nervous (OK, call it "angry") feeling that we are tearing our economy down based on fear as opposed to real facts. Sure, the facts are not yet as good as for the flu, but there is a major danger when every "expert" and political hack is warning and shutting down just about everything.    :-(((

PS: Just to put my status in perspective, I guess that I have lost 1 1/2 times the value of a decent size house we reside in in the last couple of weeks.   :-(((

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Bob

I am going to stay home as long as possible. My county number went up yesterday, and now it is 9 and no death yet.

The nation's death number has gone up by another hundred in the last two hours. Now, it is 900.

We are getting ready for our son's family to arrive later tonight, may be early morning tomorrow. He has rented a U-Haul truck and bringing a lot of their belongings for an extended stay here. We already have a lot of their stuff in Cookeville. They want to use the guest bed room also so that they can dump their stuff. We have a lot of space for our entire family. Wasn't it a good thing that I bought a big home some 35 years ago. Who would have thought that it would be useful like this? My wife has stuffed today (Instacart delivered our grocery today) the second refrigerator also.

I am going to stay with my current investments. Let it take its time. I have been there before, CREF Stock, TREA, and the only thing that held was your favorite TIAA then. I am not worried about investments because our income will stay the same and we can pay bills for the whole family. There is no financial problem for us.

In any case, thanks for the suggestion.

I have another news now. The stimulus bill is trouble now.

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Nat,

I think we are in agreement: It's all about family.

Take good care.

Bob

P.S. Why we scrambled to return home. Michigan has been named an "A" state for implementing social distancing. Our county--Ingham--is one of the top five counties in MI for practicing social distancing. We go out for walks and folks greet each other at an appropriate distance. Friendliness continues. Glad to be HOME.

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Hey Bob, that sounds like a wonderful county! The same things happen when we go out for walks in our neighborhood. An old friend -- also a neighbor -- went shopping for us the other day. The president of the School Board, who lives just up the block from us, has organized a great website and team to provide for families (and in particular children) in need in our school district.

Welcome back to a different but sane reality zone!

Added: these are interesting times. On the same evening (last night) we received calls from my brother who lives in San Francisco and my wife's sister who lives in Palm Coast, Florida. Strange and threatening times bring families into contact.

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Hi Juris:

"Welcome back to a different but sane reality zone!"

You got that right!

Bob

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


Not being callous, Nat, but put that number in perspective with how many have/will die from ordinary flu every this year.

I've heard this line of thought recently.   People die, every day, for all kinds of reasons; in fact, just under 3 million Americans die every year, from all causes.  However, our hospitals and ICUs are not typically overrun by sick people, as appears likely due to COVID-19 in our near future.

 

 

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

The Cheesecake Factory Tells Landlords Across the Country It Won’t Be Able to Pay Rent on April 1.

Can you imagine IF this sets a precedent?

https://la.eater.com/2020/3/25/21194144/cheesecake-factory-rent-strike-chain-restaurant?utm_content=...

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

It depends on the landlord.

The biggest landlord in the new Detroit is Dan Gilbert.

Here's what he's doing.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/bedrock-detroit-waiving-rent-other-fees-for-small-businesses-f...

Bob

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

I want to sell a portion of my TREA and move the funds to TIAA Traditional that has a 3% guarantee.  TREA is now about 36% of my TIAA portfolio and about 16% of the total portfolio.  Here is my dilemma.  Since I am retired and have more than allowed maximum of $150,000, I will not be able to move back to my current position.  Should I still sell during this quarter and what would be a reasonable percentage?  Thanks in advance.

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Janet,

No one can satisfactorily answer your question without knowing many highly personal features of your life. You should not share that information online.

It might be useful to ask yourself how much (if any) of your total portfolio are you willing or able or need to hold in TREA for the remainder of your life. 

If you have an adviser, speak with him/her.

Bob

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


@Janet wrote:

I want to sell a portion of my TREA and move the funds to TIAA Traditional that has a 3% guarantee.  TREA is now about 36% of my TIAA portfolio and about 16% of the total portfolio.  Here is my dilemma.  Since I am retired and have more than allowed maximum of $150,000, I will not be able to move back to my current position.  Should I still sell during this quarter and what would be a reasonable percentage?  Thanks in advance.


"Since I am retired and have more than allowed maximum of $150,000, I will not be able to move back to my current position."  

Check systematic transfer, which is easy.  As long as systematic transfer rules are in place (no sign of any change), you can return to TREA in any amount you wish provided that your institution's plan does not prevent it.  For information on systematic transfer, call TIAA, contact your WMA if you have one, or read the relevant part of the TREA prospectus.

"Should I still sell during this quarter and what would be a reasonable percentage?"

Maybe my comments above answered this question.  If not, I cannot give any percentage.

I hope this helps.

 

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

I calmly moved all my TREA in Roth IRA to 1% Traditional yesterday, after I moved all my TREA in 401K to 3% Traditional 2-3 weeks ago.  

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

All-time TREA high was 442.07 on 2/20.

As of yesterday's close, TREA was just over 1% off its high. Doesn't seem like a huge drop to me, given the current situation. I have considered exchanging a small portion of my TREA for some stock funds, but after the increases of the past two days, I'll just wait and see...

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

As with any position in a total portfolio, the principal question I would ask myself (before I bought or sold) would be: what part does (or would) such and such play in the total portfolio  As a retiree, I am closely focused on income.

Perhaps Janet might want to ask herself a similar question--all the more so when the present, recently, is in our face so to speak.

Bob

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

"Since I am retired and have more than allowed maximum of $150,000, I will not be able to move back to my current position."  

@Learner: Check systematic transfer, which is easy.  As long as systematic transfer rules are in place (no sign of any change), you can return to TREA in any amount you wish provided that your institution's plan does not prevent it.  For information on systematic transfer, call TIAA, contact your WMA if you have one, or read the relevant part of the TREA prospectus.

_____________________________

I spoke with my WMA about a week ago regarding a possible sale of the TREA.  He thinks the fund is not in the same position as it was in 2008. He suggested against selling at all based on the fund fundamentals.  He doesn't see an increased number of vacancies and decreased properties valuations for at least next several months.   

I also spoke with the Advisory Contact Center at TIAA regarding systematic transfer.  Without monthly contributions through a payroll, it's only available through $150,000 maximum. The person who I spoke with didn't sound as very knowledgeable, so will check with my WMA when he will be available.  

 

 

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Janet,

Monthly contributions are included in the rules for systematic transfer.  There are other ways.  Your WMA should know.  You can review the prospectus online or a paper copy if you have one.

Whether you sell or how much you sell...  I have no comment on that.

 

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Systematic Transfer into TREA has nothing to do with being employed.

Let's say you have a bundle in unrestricted Trad. Just tell them you want to do an ST of $10,000 per week from Trad to TREA for three weeks in a row, $30,000 total. I've done that sort of thing twice...

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Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

@TheWizard Systematic Transfer into TREA has nothing to do with being employed.  Let's say you have a bundle in unrestricted Trad. Just tell them you want to do an ST of $10,000 per week from Trad to TREA for three weeks in a row, $30,000 total. I've done that sort of thing twice...

That's what I thought, but was confused by the TIAA rep telling me it was not the case. Apparently, she was wrong stating that $150,000 limit would apply to ST as well. She also stated that not only withdrawals FROM, but also transfers TO Real Estate Fund are limited to once per quarter. I found this info in the Prospectus dated May 1, 2019, page 86:

" The following transfers are currently not subject to this limitation: systematic transfers and withdrawals"...

I have a great WMA, but am very disappointed in TIAA national service center reps who have a limited knowledge of simple procedural questions. 

 

 

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