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Valued Contributor

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

@GLI2019 makes a good point about VA annuitants with annual re-valuations. Those use VA prices [for the payout fund, not the accumulation fund that is quoted daily] on March 31 to change annuity payments from May 1-April 30. VA annuitants with monthly re-valuations experience pricing as of 20th of each month in their monthly payments.

YBB
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Participant ○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

In my GRA I already made a Q1 transfer of about 1/3 of my TREA holding (as mentioned a few weeks ago). Next Wednesday, April 1 (Q2), I may move the rest. Question is where I'd move it to. Simplest is to designate money market fund as a temporary holding place. I already have a lot of cash there, and it is where my monthly RMD withdrawals (transfers to my bank) come from. But I could move money to some FI investment from the limited list of available funds in my account. I don't feel inclined to put more cash into equities now. The options available in my TIAA account are quite limited. {{At present I have ca. 45% of my holdings in equities, 15% Trad, 9% TREA, 7% multi-asset, and the rest in FI and MMA.}}

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Participant ○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

@Juris2 
I too, recently moved 1/3 of our T-REA (to Traditional - GRSA) during Q-1 with the intention of possibly exchanging additional funds during Q-2.  I didn’t/don’t see any upside to T-REA for the next few months and our GRSA Trad is still offering a 3% return.  Since a GRSA account only has the caveat of requiring a 120 day hold (without losing interest) it became a way to reduce our risk.

Brian

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Follower ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


It's been my (modest) experience that selling on Mondays should be avoided.  Lots of folks stew over the weekend.  Mind you: I Have NO empirical data to support my anecdotal observation.

On the other hand, I recommend to anyone in general  to consider the "disposition effect" prior to selling.  No snark intended.  I keep it always in mind under stressful circumstances

Disposition effect

The disposition effect is related to the way investors tend to treat unrealised gains and losses on financial assets. In particular, research found that investors have the tendency to realize gains more quickly than losses. Investors tend to “hold on to losers, but sell winners”. From an investment perspective, this behavior does not make sense. A security’s future performance is unrelated to the price at which the investor purchased the security.


As far as people "stewing over the weekend", I think if you were talking about typical equities and equity funds, that tend to react pretty quickly to investor sentiment, your point would be well-taken.   My impression is that TREA doesn't really behave like that.

As far as the disposition effect, maybe.   But history has shown us (or at least did 10 years ago) that it's fairly easy to predict big declines in TREA, and there seems to be a growing consensus that we're in for one.

Anyhow, I think sell half now, then wait and see what happens in April, makes sense for me.   Otherwise, if don't do anything between now and end of quarter, and see further decline in early April, stuck between selling it all, or selling some and then having hands tied until July 1.

 

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Follower ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

I do worry though, if a number of people are thinking like I (and several others on this forum) are thinking, that sell orders could overwhelm TIAA's shabby IT infrastructure on Monday and Tuesday.   OTOH, people who think about it as hard as we here are, may be a small minority of TREA holders.

 

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Participant ○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


@RustyShacklefor wrote:

I do worry though, if a number of people are thinking like I (and several others on this forum) are thinking, that sell orders could overwhelm TIAA's shabby IT infrastructure on Monday and Tuesday.   OTOH, people who think about it as hard as we here are, may be a small minority of TREA holders.


I agree.  A couple of years ago, I remember posting my guesstimates on the number of posters here, the lurkers, their friends & relatives, and the total amount of $ they all have in TREA, which has about $30B of properties and other assets.  My conclusion was they are all a very small percentage.  Some people who have nothing to do with M* are very serious TREA investors, no doubt, and they have a lot of assets in TREA.  But your last sentence above (I added red) seems correct to me.   

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Valued Contributor

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Rusty,

I was commenting on selling in general on Mondays.

The "stewing," as well, is a general observation about fast moving markets.

If TREA starts seriously falling, it will hardly act like an equity.

My view as an annualized annuitant is I have plenty of time to consider my position in TREA from which I draw about 20% of my annuity income (largely discretionary). I am aware that some others draw on TREA for a larger amount of income.

Thankfully,Yogi seems to understand where I am coming from.

All the best with your investments.

Bob

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Participant ○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Many of us have specific constraints based on trading rules. For example, I can't add to TREA (my institution forbids it), though I can remain in it for now. Two years ago I committed to a TPA of my Trad funds, which I ship to the MMA and thereby use as part of my RMD's. But there's still a fair bit of flexibility in my allocation and where I draw RMD funds. And I still try to grow, or at least to maintain, the valuation of my TIAA account as a whole even as I'm required to take money out -- and that money is put to good use.

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Follower ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Many of us have specific constraints based on trading rules. For example, I can't add to TREA (my institution forbids it) ...


Can't add to it, that's screwy.   What's the easiest way to find out if my institution has a similar rule ?

 

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Participant ○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Rusty, the easiest way might be for you to go to your account and try to set up a transfer to TREA. If that's banned, you won't be able to do it, i.e., TREA won't show up on the list of available investments to transfer money to.

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Participant ○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


@Juris2 wrote:

Rusty, the easiest way might be for you to go to your account and try to set up a transfer to TREA. If that's banned, you won't be able to do it, i.e., TREA won't show up on the list of available investments to transfer money to.


Exactly.  If it is not an option online, then it is not an option.

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Explorer ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


@RustyShacklefor wrote:

Many of us have specific constraints based on trading rules. For example, I can't add to TREA (my institution forbids it) ...


Can't add to it, that's screwy.   What's the easiest way to find out if my institution has a similar rule ?

 


Setup a transfer out of something else and see in TREA is available as one of the destination options.

But if presently over $150k in TREA, it might be there with an asterisk...

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Follower ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


@Juris2 wrote:

Rusty, the easiest way might be for you to go to your account and try to set up a transfer to TREA. If that's banned, you won't be able to do it, i.e., TREA won't show up on the list of available investments to transfer money to.


Only other thing I have now is TRAD, which I can't just tx to TREA (need TPA first).

I guess I could initiate "sell" order for TREA, and it'd probably warn me.   Or not.   It didn't even warn me of the one-trade-per-calendar-quarter restriction.

 

 

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Valued Contributor

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

If your institution hasn't notified you of plan changes [like Juris' did], and if T-REA was available for purchase in the past, no need to worry about that suddenly changing.

YBB
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Participant ○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

If you already implemented a transfer from TREA in the current calendar quarter, and you now try to make another one, you'll probably learn (as I did a week or two ago) that TREA will not show up as an investment that you can transfer from now. When that happened to me I called my WMA contact in Denver and he immediately dx'd why I wasn't seeing TREA on the list. It had to do with my earlier transfer from TREA (in January).

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Valued Contributor

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

With only 4+ trading days left in Q1, I ended up doing this.

In my T-REA, almost 50% is the amount that I have put in and 50% is appreciation. Once I decided to make some change, I would rather do it on an up day. Today is a good* up day [with expectations of $2 trillion Stimulus bill clearing the Senate], tomorrow may be up day too [with expectations of Stimulus bill clearing the House], or it may be all in the market already. Who knows about the rest of Q1 days in this roller coaster market.

So, I moved 60% of T-REA into Traditional. In my TIAA account, T-REA will then go from 37.3% to 14.9% and I may deal with that in Q2.

*Half-hour made the adjective good unnecessary.

YBB
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Participant ○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Best wishes, yogi.  Thirty-five minutes before the markets close, IYR is up 8.3% today.  If it remains at that level and in the absence of any internal development, TREA could be up around $1.10 today.

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Follower ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Best wishes, yogi.  Thirty-five minutes before the markets close, IYR is up 8.3% today.  If it remains at that level and in the absence of any internal development, TREA could be up around $1.10 today.


Works for me, along with yogi's thoughts about selling on an up day.   So I just sold half of my allotment (which was about 10% of my overall investments, before the sale).

 

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Explorer ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?

Hi Yogi,

In my Roth IRA I moved 2/3rds out of TREA to TIAA Traditional today as outlined earlier in this thread. I still hold 1/3rd in my Roth IRA and many more units tax deferred in my Traditional IRA, GSRA, and ATRA accounts. I will not sell anymore this quarter. But next quarter all depends on how the markets do.

S

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Participant ○○○

Re: TREA - Is the time to sell coming?


@yogibearbull wrote:

With only 4+ trading days left in Q1, I ended up doing this.

Today is a good* up day [with expectations of $2 trillion Stimulus bill clearing the Senate], tomorrow may be up day too [with expectations of Stimulus bill clearing the House], or it may be all in the market already. Who knows about the rest of Q1 days in this roller coaster market.

*Half-hour made the adjective good unnecessary.


Wall street hyped this deal in the morning so that they can sell anything and everything to the main street. But then, the reality sets in. CNN is showing the number of deaths continuously updating the numbers. I saw this morning the number 687, and now it is above 800. People are dying every hour. There is nothing to celebrate yet. Wall Street seemed to be detached from the main street.

I understand that the peak death rate is more than 3 weeks away. We do not even know yet how the economy will look like then and the future. Again, I want to stress the point that this is not a financial issue where you can throw money at and solve the problem.

Have I lost money? Yes, big time. But, what is money worth when people are dying?

 

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