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OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

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Participant ○○○

Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

I sure won't predict anything other than we are a highly adaptable species with a dynamic economic system greatly motivated by profit to provide goods and services under any circumstance. We are gonna be OK.

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

This struck me as the biggest take-away:

"There are two realistic paths to achieving this “population-level immunity.” One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others—those who contract the disease and then recover—immune. “They’re just Teflon at that point,” meaning they can’t get infected again and they won’t pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon status—though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity—normalcy will be restored."

What we know is that the everyday cold is a coronavirus, and does not confer any real immunity.

 

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

If Abbott Labs 15 minute test is legit and can be deployed widely it will change everything.

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy


@DJANG0 wrote:

I sure won't predict anything other than we are a highly adaptable species with a dynamic economic system greatly motivated by profit to provide goods and services under any circumstance. We are gonna be OK.


That dynamic and adaptable system works even better if we question the current situation seriously and always strive for improvements rather than just having faith in it and taking it easy, which you would not advocate, I am sure.

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

The CV situation has to peak, level out, and decline before normalcy can be thought of 

CNN shows 113,000+ cases in the US; I assume that means active cases, excluding ones that have resolved one way or the other.

So I started thinking: how long before we have 1,000,000 active cases in the US? If the number doubles every five days, then that would be 15 days, which would be EASTER!

We'll see...

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy


@bilperk wrote:

This struck me as the biggest take-away:

"There are two realistic paths to achieving this “population-level immunity.” One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others—those who contract the disease and then recover—immune. “They’re just Teflon at that point,” meaning they can’t get infected again and they won’t pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon status—though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity—normalcy will be restored."

What we know is that the everyday cold is a coronavirus, and does not confer any real immunity.

 


We need to consider the lack of immunity to the common cold, therefore perhaps the coronavirus may lead to a more severe from of common cold? I think our best outcome would be a vaccine and new drugs for the treatment on this type of infection.

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

Hi,

We very badly need to invent medical robots to take care of our sick when pandemics like this occur. This would be an ideal application for robotic technology. They would not get the virus and could be self sanitized between patients for safety. They could work 24/7 and never get tired or need feed.

S

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

@TheWizard  Easter, 1 million cases. Very plausible. Let all of us not be one in a million. My guess is that we will have at least 50% more than that.*  One of my (adult) children, who lives in NY but is currently in KC, is trying to calculate when and how he will attempt to return home. Driving would be 3 or 4 days. Flying could be done in a day but he'd be landing at LGA or JFK or EWR -- or maybe Westchester County Airport.

* Here's somebody else's calculation: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

Another related Atlantic article I received a couple days ago which I found interesting..

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/?fbclid=IwAR0RGUm...

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

Learner, maybe L Cohen's Almost Like The Blues  is in the future. No one went "dark" quite like him.

I've tried to be hopeful, but admit that's fading. Now I wonder what euphemism the government comes up with for martial law. I see the idea is currently being floated.

 

 

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy


though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity

I heard Dr Fauci speaking within the last few days, and though he said we don't know for sure, he'd be "willing to bet a lot of money" (or some metaphor like that) that it would confer immunity.

 

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Re: OT (maybe): Four Possible Timelines For Normalcy

What to expect before normalcy...  The next unemployment rate announcement is on April 3 but I don't think the projected unemployment rate in the article is for March.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-3...

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