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Frequent Contributor

Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

It certainly helps to reduce costs. 


@SteadyEddy wrote:

We need to bring the cost of college education down... so if tele-ed helps, I am all for it.


 

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester


@51hh wrote:

My intuition is that there will soon be major fundamental changes in almost every industry to adapt to the COVID-19 era (new norm whatever that means).


COVID-19 is creating a condition not unlike annual swine and bird flu virus cause. Per the CDC, each year between 25-50 Million people are symptomatic to the flu and from these, between 200,000 to 1,000,000 are hospitalized and from these, 22,000 to 95,000, average 35,000 - 45,000 each year will die from the illness. COVID-19, with its apparent predilection for the obese, those with impaired immune systems and those with circulatory disorders, primarily over the age of 65, will forever be with us, likely claiming several thousands or perhaps 10's of thousands of lives each year, much like auto fatalities (about 35,000 each year), drug overdoses per year (about 60,000 - 70,000) and Suicides of about 50,000 per year, just to name a few.

Of course, the big difference with COVID-19 triggered deaths and everything else, is that none of the tens of other cause of tens of thousands of deaths each year shuts down our economy. This strongly suggests there's something other than personal safety going on with this shutdown.

BruceM

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester


@BruceM wrote:

@51hh wrote:

My intuition is that there will soon be major fundamental changes in almost every industry to adapt to the COVID-19 era (new norm whatever that means).


snip ...

Of course, the big difference with COVID-19 triggered deaths and everything else, is that none of the tens of other cause of tens of thousands of deaths each year shuts down our economy. This strongly suggests there's something other than personal safety going on with this shutdown.

BruceM


@BruceM 

Hopefully, you're not trying to make the argument that society should treat pandemics like automobile fatalities ... but maybe you are ...

 

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester


@ctyankee wrote:

 


No wonder that most people are afraid of going back to work (not WFH).  A majority of Americans going to work fear exposing their household to the coronavirus

Tenn. posts data after we go to bed . When you look at the data in the morning, there is suddenly a big jump in the number of deaths in spite of fact that the number of new cases overall has slowed down except in Nashville, Memphis, and Chattanooga areas. It is a mystery to me why deaths are going up. Fortunately, there is no death outside of the nursing home death in my county so far.

Using the rate of increase using the nationwide data, it seems that we will reach the 100,000 (Trump's number) mile stone in less than 5 days.

 

Screenshot_2020-05-15 United States Coronavirus 1,470,688 Cases and 87,773 Deaths - Worldometer.png

 

An interesting fact: The total number of cases are higher in those counties along the inter-state roads. 65, 75, and part of 40. Since 40 runs through mountains and rivers where the population density is low, it ain't that bad along 40 east-west.

 

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

@ctyankee 

"Hopefully, you're not trying to make the argument that society should treat pandemics like automobile fatalities ... but maybe you are ..."

Nope...I'm saying society should treat a death as a death, unless you feel some deaths are more important than others.

From the CDC, through the week ending May 9, here are the COVID-19 Deaths by age

covid deaths by age thru 5-9.JPG

This certainly looks startling when looked at alone....but now let's look at it in the context of all reported deaths

all deaths by age thru 5-9.JPG

Clearly, those over age 65 are at a significant risk, although this doesn't yet tell us what other diagnosed conditions the  ICD-10 codes the decedent's carried at death, which is a necessary part of any nationwide master plan for the identity and protection of those most vulnerable to the novel COVID-19 virus, as they were with the 2009 (H1N1)pdm09 novel virus.

What I find most interesting about these charts is how minimal the effect is on those under age 45...which gets us back to this posts heading. Why, exactly, does the CS University system plan on cancelling in-person classes?

BruceM

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

To be fair, I agree that only 6% of the people have died below the age of 50 in our state. But, in a university setting, there will be a lot of old professors and staff who provide significant research and teaching effort compared to the younger faculty and staff. That makes a big difference.

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester


@BruceM wrote:

@51hh wrote:

My intuition is that there will soon be major fundamental changes in almost every industry to adapt to the COVID-19 era (new norm whatever that means).


COVID-19 is creating a condition not unlike annual swine and bird flu virus cause. Per the CDC, each year between 25-50 Million people are symptomatic to the flu and from these, between 200,000 to 1,000,000 are hospitalized and from these, 22,000 to 95,000, average 35,000 - 45,000 each year will die from the illness. COVID-19, with its apparent predilection for the obese, those with impaired immune systems and those with circulatory disorders, primarily over the age of 65, will forever be with us, likely claiming several thousands or perhaps 10's of thousands of lives each year, much like auto fatalities (about 35,000 each year), drug overdoses per year (about 60,000 - 70,000) and Suicides of about 50,000 per year, just to name a few.

Of course, the big difference with COVID-19 triggered deaths and everything else, is that none of the tens of other cause of tens of thousands of deaths each year shuts down our economy. This strongly suggests there's something other than personal safety going on with this shutdown.

BruceM


Of course something else is going on. It's the pure and simple epidemiological mathematics that if we had not done "something," there is a very high probability that we would have had 500,000 or a million deaths. If you don't want to believe that, I can't prove it. The "what if" counterfactual can never be proven. If you take an aspirin and your headache goes away, you can't know if the aspirin was the reason or if the headache would have gone away anyway. Those who don't want to believe the best scientific evidence will argue that something nefarious and/or political "was going on." In today's world of fake facts, there is no way to bridge the divide between science and belief in conspiracies. I won't get into an ongoing debate about this, because it is a waste of time. 

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

I understand that 89 of 95 counties of Tennessee will be open for business with some guidelines next week. I would assume that Davidson, Sumner, Rutherford, and Shelby will have to wait because most of the deaths come from these. The deaths from the rest of counties is small single digits.

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

 

Small colleges, but "there are those who love" them (Dartmouth v Woodward, 1819).

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

Doesn’t Berea have a substantial endowment? 

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

This was a response to the earlier comment about the school in Ky

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

Yes, Fergie--over $1 billion. Plus if you go to the Berea website you will see a systematic response to covid-19. 

Bob

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

Finally, we have one death outside of the nursing home in the hospital in our town. I understand that he was an older individual with multiple chronic conditions and ailments. There are yet 31 cases still in the hospital. So, the hospital advises to strictly follow the social distancing and keep using the sanitizers and masks because the virus is out there still spreading. The number of cases jumped at 8% per day in the last two days in our county.

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

 

Don't worry, be a professor in the NY State university school system...which has free tuition for NY residents.  Paid for by State tax system, taxes which are deductible for residents, but capped recently with SALT.

And if SUNY Colleges never re-open this year, professors will likely be fully paid, as per the policy here:

https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Thousands-of-state-workers-are-home-but-no-15272416.php?utm_...

"Thousands of state workers are home, but no whisper of furloughs .  Cuomo, unions counting on Washington to fill looming budget gap  .Facing at least a $10 billion deficit amid a pandemic that has crippled New York's economy, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has not proposed furloughs or layoffs in the state workforce, even as tens of thousands of government employees have been directed to work from home — including many with sharply reduced job duties..."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

R48

 

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester


@ECEPROF wrote:

To be fair, I agree that only 6% of the people have died below the age of 50 in our state. But, in a university setting, there will be a lot of old professors and staff who provide significant research and teaching effort compared to the younger faculty and staff. That makes a big difference.


A 'lot' of old professors? Hmmmm. As I recall, the 'old professors' didn't teach the classes nor provide the individual student counseling, GTFs did that. But lets say they do....are you saying the reason for the university existing is to serve the needs of the elderly university employees.....or do you think the purpose of the university is to serve the educational need of the student body?

BruceM

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester


@BruceM wrote:

@ECEPROF wrote:

To be fair, I agree that only 6% of the people have died below the age of 50 in our state. But, in a university setting, there will be a lot of old professors and staff who provide significant research and teaching effort compared to the younger faculty and staff. That makes a big difference.


A 'lot' of old professors? Hmmmm. As I recall, the 'old professors' didn't teach the classes nor provide the individual student counseling, GTFs did that. But lets say they do....are you saying the reason for the university existing is to serve the needs of the elderly university employees.....or do you think the purpose of the university is to serve the educational need of the student body?

BruceM


@BruceM 

If you've got something to say, say it.  But, stop with the 'answer yes or no, have you stopped beating your wife' questions.

ctyankee

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

Regardless of the sources of funding, the annual cost increases for highered have vastly outpaced the rate of inflation. I didn't read any citations here, unless I missed it, that suggest any expectation of cost savings from remote classroom learning. Those  employed in academia and the politicians on the state level don't do very much to control the costs on campuses. Any savings will be selective and may shift elsewhere in their budgets. Standard salary increases are not viewed as a budget increase. When open jobs are not filled or are delayed, the budgets are not reduced.

I disagree that the states will file or be forced into bankruptcy. That would mean giving an unfriendly judge an opportunity to reduce costs, including retirement benefits.

I worked at a university a dozen years back. Assuming little has changed, the federal government subsidizes costs as well.

While many parents (millions) have lost jobs, I fail to see where the cost of tuition and room and board will be reduced or slow down. There may be exceptions, but not the rule.

 

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

The key question is what is meant by "can be conducted"?  You can have someone lecture in front of a video camera, perhaps brilliant lectures and perhaps even entertaining but that is perhaps 25% of the education process. What fraction of the students enrolled for the class will actually watch the lectures (some of the lectures?)  What fraction of those will prepare in advance (called "studying") in order to really engage with the lecturer? How do you appraise the level of learning for each individual student (known as awarding a "grade")?

In years past I have taught "televised" classes and large lecture classes (just me with an overhead projector and a microphone and approx 500 students) My only support was machine grading of exams and some TA's to help watch over during the actual exam. There was no way to take attendance, I didn't try. There was no way to be sure the name on the exam paper matched the student filling in the answers, I didn't try. I wasn't a TA, I was a full professor at the time.

I could tell that a sizeable fraction were diligent (they came to class and even asked questions either in, after class or during office hours). I presented them with an opportunity to learn but could not force them. The bottom line was that even with a full professor teaching the class it was inexpensive (per student) so the administration loved it. Ultimately the students did not like it. Modern technology provides an answer to some of the difficulties but not all.

On-line education sounds good but it does not replace classroom education for the masses. It never will.

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

What seems to have been forgotten is the quarantine was to flatten the curve, I.e. not overwhelm the hospitals.  It saves lives only because the hospitals can treat those who have covid virus

ststs

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Re: OT:California state universities to cancel most in-person classes through fall semester

Stats

"What seems to have been forgotten is the quarantine was to flatten the curve, I.e. not overwhelm the hospitals. It saves lives only because the hospitals can treat those who have covid virus"

That's exactly right.

The second part of the 'flatten the curve' discussion that never gets discussed, is that between the beginning of the pan/epi-demic and its future sharp roll-off in mortality (due to a vaccine, anti-viral treatment and/or broad self-immunity), its not the shape of the curve that matters, its the area under the curve that really matters.

BruceM

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