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Frequent Contributor

Investor's finding any value in stocks?

I purchased or have added to several stocks over the past several months. Please share your ideas on individual stocks.

Some of my current holds:

PFE, BCE, BMY, SGEN, ABBV, T, VZ, WFC, along with others.

I would appreciate any thoughts.

Out

 

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Participant ○

Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

Blood on the streets...! Airlines? But will they all be here tomorrow?

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

If T would drop down to around $27 to 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If T would drop down to $27 to $28 range might be interested. Everything else (IMO) is still to high.

Bought my first stock in 1966 and first rule was: No planes, trains, or automobiles ! Been a good rule for me over years. :)

Copie  

 

 

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

I’ve also added to some of my holdings over the past nearly two months, after the selloff started. Added to VZ, several banks- USB, WFC, as well as PFE, MMM, MCD, DUK, UN, KO, and CVS. Most of them were bought earlier, back when the selloff was occurring, so fortunately most are higher now. The market has recovered fairly quickly, and most “high quality dividend growers” appear closer to fully valued now. So I’m sitting on the sidelines, watching to see if we go back down. 

I did sell some of my bond positions, now I primarily hold just muni funds, bonds are only ~6-7% of our portfolio. Rest is in equity (~85%) and cash (9%). 

Win
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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

With oil down to diddly squat, while the need for this energy source still there until the last barrel is pumped, I've gotten back in.  At my age, I'm not interested in picking individual stocks anymore.  But I have taken a sizable position in the Alerian ETF, AMLP, unleveraged.  This is an infrastructure energy fund, not a commodity, or big oil one.  MLP space has certainly been beaten down over the last 5 years, since the KMR/KMP fiasco, falling from a high of $19.25 in Sept 2014 to an apparent bottom of $2.82 last month, for an average 17%/year loss to date.  The loss was -4.77%/year through 2019.

At today's share price of $4.64 and a ttm distribution of $0.77, the ttm distribution yield is 16.6%.  Their next distribution is in May, based upon the diveys paid in Q1.  I don't know if any of it's holdings cut their divey YTD, nor if economic conditions, going forward, will lead to future cuts.  I do know, however, that 5 of the top 10 MLPs below were divey aristrocrats as of the end of March, as shown.

I see value in MLP land now, given the above.  The top 10 holdings in this ETF comprise 82% of its portfolio and includes the big, well established names that are familiar to individual stock investors.

Name% AssetsDiv Growth Years
Magellan Midstream Partners LP12.98%20
Enterprise Products Partners LP11.89%23
MPLX LP Partnership Units11.11%8
Phillips 66 Partners LP10.73%8
Energy Transfer LP8.05%0
Plains All American Pipeline LP7.49%0
TC Pipelines LP6.07%0
Shell Midstream Partners LP5.03%6
Cheniere Energy Partners LP4.48%0
EQM Midstream Partners LP4.00%0
Total81.83% 
ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

In a similar vein to AMLP, consider the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which tracks the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index.  It is unleveraged.  It's 2X leveraged ETN 'cousin' is SDYL.  This index, in turn, includes the divey aristrocrats found within the S&P1500, the total stock market index, that have continuously raised their diveys at least for the last 20 years.  The index, hence the ETF, isn't market cap weighted and has a minimum market cap.

As with most everything, SDY appears to have bottomed last month.  At todays share price of $85.24 and TTM distributions, it distributes 3.48%.  It's other cousin, SPY, distributes 2.25%, while SDYL distributes 10.05%.  You can look up historical returns ifn you want or need 'em, and the usual caveats about current and future diveys/distributions still apply.

Here are the top 10 SDY holdings, which comprise 17% of its portfolio, along with their divey aristrocrat information:

Name% AssetsDiv Growth Years
AbbVie Inc2.39%8
AT&T Inc1.98%36
International Business Machines Corp1.87%24
JM Smucker Co1.71%22
Cardinal Health Inc1.66%23
Amcor PLC Ordinary Shares1.65%N/A
National Fuel Gas Co1.58%49
Clorox Co1.48%42
People's United Financial Inc1.44%27
Exxon Mobil Corp1.40%37
Total17.16% 
ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

I haven't added a lot.   I'm not a big fan of energy.  HMLP is my favorite in the space.  I picked up some shares when they were yielding 30%.   I picked up a lot of ATT series C preferred (T.PRC).  The yield-to-call was too good to pass up.  Both have moved up big time the past few weeks.   

 


@outandabout wrote:

I purchased or have added to several stocks over the past several months. Please share your ideas on individual stocks.

Some of my current holds:

PFE, BCE, BMY, SGEN, ABBV, T, VZ, WFC, along with others.

I would appreciate any thoughts.

Out

 


 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

Thanks for the posts.

A note of caution I noted on yogi's weekly report:

"Five stocks representing 20% of the market have powered this move [FB, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN]. This while the economy is in terrible shape – millions unemployed; retail bankruptcies; companies pulling guidance for 2020, etc. Countries reopening now point to rather slow recoveries. There is a long road ahead for Covid-19 remedy and economic recovery. In the past, some spectacular rebounds failed miserably. Be careful."

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?


@outandabout wrote:

Thanks for the posts.

A note of caution I noted on yogi's weekly report:

"Five stocks representing 20% of the market have powered this move [FB, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN]. This while the economy is in terrible shape – millions unemployed; retail bankruptcies; companies pulling guidance for 2020, etc. Countries reopening now point to rather slow recoveries. There is a long road ahead for Covid-19 remedy and economic recovery. In the past, some spectacular rebounds failed miserably. Be careful."


It is not uncommon for a handful of stocks to represent a disproportionate amount of the gains attributed to the S&P 500. I agree that the economic recovery will take time and investors should be cautious.

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

I agree, it seems like there has been a huge divergence between some companies whose stocks have sold off, and others where they have recovered pretty dramatically. Many higher quality companies have returned to “full value” and are NOT “bargains”, IMHO. 

I think one has to be very careful with picking individual stocks here. I have a “wish list” that I want to buy, but I’m being VERY careful about price. It appears as if the “leading stocks” are the same tech stocks that have been leaders for several years.

Win
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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?


@Win1177 wrote:

I agree, it seems like there has been a huge divergence between some companies whose stocks have sold off, and others where they have recovered pretty dramatically. Many higher quality companies have returned to “full value” and are NOT “bargains”, IMHO. 

I think one has to be very careful with picking individual stocks here. I have a “wish list” that I want to buy, but I’m being VERY careful about price. It appears as if the “leading stocks” are the same tech stocks that have been leaders for several years.


The biggie, Amazon, is the one most benefiting from the virus shutdown of the economy.  It is actually up YTD.  As local retailers shutdown, and people are reluctant to leave the house, even to buy groceries, Amazon prime delivery has surged.  Which also begs the question, what's a fair market value for AMZN:

AMZNCurrent (4/24/20)
Market Cap (intraday)1.20T
Enterprise Value1.20T
Trailing P/E 104.28
Forward P/E83.33
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1.89
Price/Sales (ttm)4.31
Price/Book (mrq)19.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.29
Enterprise Value/EBITDA32.23

 

By the way, AMZN doesn't pay a divey, so all 'return' from owning this individual stock is through capital appreciation.

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

I hold several stocks, short of listing here all of them,  these are the ones I added in last 4-6 weeks (added to existing position or started a new position). I call these my Corona Additions.

ABBV - Great Dividend and Biotech/Pharma space longterm trend is positive with new viruses, vaccines

CMCSA - Added to existing, content, streaming, binge watching

GM - Great Dividend, contrarion play, I would expect their Cruize division to be spun off in next few years for Autonomous driving

SLB - Oil services play, no one likes oil...

TESLA - why not? Forget the valuation, play on ESG, Solar, Anything electric

UBER - Gig economy is the future and ridesharing a part of it

UPS - Dividend, and cheap and logistics play

WPX - smallcap exploration company, one risky addition, dont care if it goes to zero...They have a great permian presence

ZBH - play on medical devices...we are getting old, and breaking hips, knees, back, shoulder and elbow...


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Frequent Contributor

Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

BCE still looking good.

41.25

+0.30
+0.73%
After Hours :
42.90
+1.65
+4.00%

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

I decided to keep my STOR investment and added a very small amount the other day.  It got priced hacked more than any other REIT I own.  Down more than 50% is a little much.  Before today's rise you could buy it at a price below the founders got at IPO.  I like REITs for growth and yield.  I have 12% target PV for them.  But STOR is obviously risky.  It is Amazon proof but not COVID-19 proof.  

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

Boeing's big move from the recent low is a surprise to even a few of their recent retirees. 

Glad to see it working out for them.

Best to all.

 

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

AT&T moves past $33. Dividend is still the drawing point.

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

AAPL is at a new high

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

Seems kind of funny, or odd, to say this, but after buying from 13 Mar into mid-April, prices for just about everything of interest to me is too high.  I'm putting my little bits of new investing money into my online savings account, and a little bit into FCONX, the Fidelity Conservative Income Bond fund.  Am looking at getting back into PONAX, or PTIAX (I have not owned that fund in the past), but I don't feel the need to buy stocks at these higher prices.  I'll just enjoy the price appreciation on what I do own.

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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?

MLott1,

I also did some buying during the selloff, and the vast majority of my buys are now above (some well above) where I bought them at. But it seems as if the market has come up A LOT since then, and I do not see much value in large cap US stocks. Nearly all the "solid" wide moat dividend payers are back up, as if we never had the Pandemic. seem fully valued to me as a group. 

Interestingly, small caps, as well as International and Emerging Markets did not recover nearly as well as US Large Caps. I personally am just sitting on some my remaining cash, wondering if we will get a new sell off or not. Also, may add some to mid and small cap indexes, as well as International stocks. 

Win
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Re: Investor's finding any value in stocks?


@mlott1 wrote:

Seems kind of funny, or odd, to say this, but after buying from 13 Mar into mid-April, prices for just about everything of interest to me is too high.  I'm putting my little bits of new investing money into my online savings account, and a little bit into FCONX, the Fidelity Conservative Income Bond fund.  Am looking at getting back into PONAX, or PTIAX (I have not owned that fund in the past), but I don't feel the need to buy stocks at these higher prices.  I'll just enjoy the price appreciation on what I do own.



@Win1177 wrote:

MLott1,

I also did some buying during the selloff, and the vast majority of my buys are now above (some well above) where I bought them at. But it seems as if the market has come up A LOT since then, and I do not see much value in large cap US stocks. Nearly all the "solid" wide moat dividend payers are back up, as if we never had the Pandemic. seem fully valued to me as a group. 

Interestingly, small caps, as well as International and Emerging Markets did not recover nearly as well as US Large Caps. I personally am just sitting on some my remaining cash, wondering if we will get a new sell off or not. Also, may add some to mid and small cap indexes, as well as International stocks. 


I agree with @mlott1 and @Win1177 above. I did some selling and buying during April and May, always maintaining my overall stock allocation; actually, slightly increasing it by buying more than I sold. I never re-balance down (sell stock) in a bull market; I always "let it ride". (I will re-balance up in a bear market, if I can.)

So, on the whole, I'm OK; however, I will admit that I got caught holding some toxic, black-box bond dreck, which I sold at a permanent loss. (Regrettably, didn't invest the proceeds into something which rocketed upward as fast as the toxic dreck plunged downward.) Lesson learned. Won't do that again.

Curiously enough, I mentioned on another thread that I was happily sitting at around 60/40, and on account of the rapid surge in equity prices (my RTX climbing almost 5% a day) I felt unable to buy or sell anything ... just letting it all ride. And a very prolific poster ripped me a new intergluteal orifice, criticizing me of paralysis and missing "the opportunity of a lifetime" (presumably that means going 100% equity even right now). Having already "won the game" a few times over, I'm not exactly sure why I'm supposed to risk significant impairment of capital in exchange for the possibility of making extra money that I will never be able to spend, on the advice of someone on the internet. 

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