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Contributor ○○

Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

@Win1177 : When you first opened your portfolio plan to us, I thought that you were kidding that you went through the 2008 era that way (with high-equity coverage) (j/k).  Now I know that you are not kidding, you do have the risk tolerance and the resilience/resolve for real; according to your own perspectives and strategy.  

It is refreshing to see something different in this market climate, where many are claiming near-zero equity:)   

My hat's off to you:) 

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...


@51hh wrote:

@Win1177 : When you first opened your portfolio plan to us, I thought that you were kidding that you went through the 2008 era that way (with high-equity coverage).  Now I know that you are not kidding, you do have the risk tolerance and the resilience/resolve for real; according to your own perspectives and strategy.  

It is refreshing to see something different in this market climate, where many are claiming near-zero equity:)   

My hat's off to you:) 


Win1177 is one of the best investors on this forum. He has iron-clad cojones, is super-transparent with his actions, owns mistakes, and does not oversell his many successes. Not a performance-chasing, back-dating pretender like "you-know-who".

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

51hh,

Thanks for the compliment! I still get nervous, as it seems like whenever I buy a "wide moat dividend growth stock" at what I think is a "great price", they seem to drop 10% more right after I buy. But I'm VERY careful to not let my emotions lead me into selling. Over time, it has usually paid off.

I started investing real early (teens), had a grandfather who was very interested in investing who taught me a LOT. He was a big "Graham fan", and so I tend to err towards value investing. But I have learned the best stocks are "Strong wide moat" companies that temporarily sell off, either due to a recession or problems at the specific company. And I like Dividends- own only a couple of non dividend payers- BRK.B, GOOG/ GOOGL, PYPL. Now own a few more non-dividend payers- HSBC, WY, and RDS.A (dividend cutter)- all not by "choice" as the recently eliminated/ reduced dividends. 

I've found patience with my holdings (and time), often helps things improve. I'm also fortunate in that I've done relatively well in my career (MD), saved aggressively, and been pretty frugal. That's allowed me to save/ invest a lot over the years (and I've got a great supportive wife!!!). And, after I retired from our faculty here at the Medical School, I now have a pension, not terribly high, but when combined w/ SS it will be ~45-50% of desired income. So I feel my risk tolerance is higher thanks to that.

Bonds here (to me) look like "riskier" holdings than equity- you're getting pretty low returns with the risk of inflation in the (distant) future. So I'm just holding <10% fixed income, right now ~5- 6%. Have more in cash than bonds! I'm trying to follow the same playbook I did in early 1980's, 1987, early 90's recession, 2000-2001, and 2008-2009. Each time, by just staying the course, I wound up much higher in portfolio size several years later. Hope I can see the same thing here in 2-5 years. But I worry this will be a longer "road" than many realize, unless we get "lucky" with a vaccine/ antivirals, my suspicion is we'll have several more "waves" of outbreaks to endure. 

Win
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

Thanks for the compliment VA-Tech!

Win
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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

You know at AA meetings where they stand up and tell who and what they are? I am a buy and hold investor. Have been since my first stock(still have it) purchase in 1966. At present 46 to 47 stocks and three funds. In this kind of market I buy 5 to 10 shares at a time. Not time to load the truck or jump out window! The stocks I am interested in are on a sheet on my desk. In present market will not pay more then what is on paper. Bought 10 shares of KMB today at $135. May not buy anymore of anything this month. Who knows. If I have any money left over at end of month dump it into FADMX my so called bond M.M.

In my small mind our stocks are in growth or income. What ever is on sale.  I know this is boring so will not say more.

Copie

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...


@copie wrote:

You know at AA meetings where they stand up and tell who and what they are? I am a buy and hold investor. Have been since my first stock(still have it) purchase in 1966. At present 46 to 47 stocks and three funds. In this kind of market I buy 5 to 10 shares at a time. Not time to load the truck or jump out window! The stocks I am interested in are on a sheet on my desk. In present market will not pay more then what is on paper. Bought 10 shares of KMB today at $135. May not buy anymore of anything this month. Who knows. If I have any money left over at end of month dump it into FADMX my so called bond M.M.

In my small mind our stocks are in growth or income. What ever is on sale.  I know this is boring so will not say more.

Copie


Amazing copie..

I am curious about the names of the stocks that you acquired almost 54 years ago. Would you mind naming a few? (only if you have no objection in sharing).

Also, in general many companies lose their "edge" in a couple of decades... so I am a bit surprised your buy-and-hold strategy is intact for over 5 decades.

All the best!

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

I was writing a check to one of Southern co. (SO)  companies in 1966 and got to thinking how could I get them to write me a check that I could use on my ele. bill.  At that time the New York stock exchange had a monthly investment program going to get more people in stock market. My first stock was SO and second was XOM( different name at that time). Third was ma bell. Sold some SO and XOM last year for my son to have a down payment on a house. Have sold some stocks over years and put in other stocks and lost some in Washington Mutual a saving and loan that went belly up!

Copie

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

Since I graduated in Computer Science in 1981 I always thought that software companies will be one of the best places to invest long term and I never cared if a company pays dividends because total return is the most important.

Why software? because great technology saves money, customers will always need it and it costs almost nothing to get the next customer.  MSFT has been a great company since the 80"

Below is MSFT+SO+XOM+VFIAX(SP500) since the 80"

msft-2.PNG

 

Below is the last 10 years (chart)

msft-1.PNG

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...


@FD1001 wrote:

Since I graduated in Computer Science in 1981 I always thought that software companies will be one of the best places to invest long term and I never cared if a company pays dividends because total return is the most important.

Why software? because great technology saves money, customers will always need it and it costs almost nothing to get the next customer.  MSFT has been a great company since the 80"

I've been using MSFT instead of GLD as a hedge. I think we are on a MSFT currency ;)

 

 

 

 

 


 

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Contributor ○

Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

I didn't do anything different but stayed the course. I didn't sell anything.

I had been slowly getting out of my stock funds for a few years and only had one large value fund left.  Everything else was in moderate-allocation or conservative allocation funds.  Even though the YTD return is negative, the last 12-month return is positive.  I may be a bit optimistic but I think the rest of the year will be OK as the economy opens back up.  I don't know if it will make 2020's return turn positive but I hope so.  Anyway, I haven't seen anything yet to make me change course.  I'm even still investing a little more every month.

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

Great thread.  The first thing I did was take a de novo look at my entire portfolio and humble myself.

I'm looking at retirement in about 5 years so I can take a few risks, but not too many as it's not like I've got all that much time to recover.  So my goal was (1) survive this year with no more than a 12% loss; and (2) position the portfolio for gains with better risk-management over the next several years. So far I'm on track--but this will be a long year.

On the aggressive side, I bought distressed debt, alternative asset managers, airlines, travel & leisure, and other beaten down equities ferociously in March--although jumped in too early and went on margin on the way down to buy even more.  Most however was in broad based funds.  Paid off that loan last week with gains.  I was prepared to sell off my crazy high government bonds if the strategy went south, but preferred to start with the house's money before messing with my AA--ask me when I'm dead whether I've got any money left or not.

On the de-risking side, I've been building hedged positions and transforming the equity side of my portfolio to funds with lower standard deviations or using equity-like income funds like convertibles to sub. Also added ETFs that go cash in downturns, long-short, and added quite a bit to corporate bonds and income-producing collars on TLT.  I made a chart of the standard deviation of all my funds and began eliminating those that underperformed their mandates (like SPLV) or otherwise had crappy records.

I agonized ferociously over whether to dump my value play in GE, which has been nothing but heartache for two years, take the tax loss, and put the remaining capital in XLR, which would still provide gains if the industry recoveries.  I did not do that, but reserve the right to do so at anytime.

The one thing I did NOT do was sell.  That was actually really hard.

Finally, this is an ongoing process and as the economic situation becomes clearer I may alter some of this plan.

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

Unbiased.

If you are planning to retire in 5 years you should start thinking about de-risking your port.

Think about those people who retired in 1999 or 2007. They didn't have fun.

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...


@galeno wrote:

Unbiased.

If you are planning to retire in 5 years you should start thinking about de-risking your port.

Think about those people who retired in 1999 or 2007. They didn't have fun.


But if you started buying depressed equities in early 2009 and kept up the pace after retirement you have done  very well.

 

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...


@Intruder wrote:

@galeno wrote:

Unbiased.

If you are planning to retire in 5 years you should start thinking about de-risking your port.

Think about those people who retired in 1999 or 2007. They didn't have fun.


But if you started buying depressed equities in early 2009 and kept up the pace after retirement you have done  very well.

 


In some ways, wish equities were still as "depressed" now as they were in March--but if they were still that low it would be because of a more painful economic situation, so I'll take the alternative. Unfortunately, think risks are still crazy high until unemployment rights itself and am not sure equities are still bargain-priced--unless venturing into treacherous small cap value.  Probably good money to be made still in that space with a lot of research and even more luck.

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

If the world stock markets are going to keep grinding 2-3% higher every week (and today looks like it’s going to be one of those days), it’s not going to be easy for me. I’m sitting on too much cash, but I don’t like buying into a powerful uptrend. Maybe I need to learn to add just a little bit every day. 

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

In subject change bear to bull.

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...


@waffle wrote:

In subject change bear to bull.


VTI is still minus 12% from 52wk high, and VXUS is minus 17% from 52wk high.

Not sure that constitutes a bull market. 

I am not an expert in these definitions - this could still be a bear market rally -:)

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

A bull market is the condition of a financial market in which prices are rising or are expected to rise.

The term "bull market" is most often used to refer to the stock market but can be applied to anything that is traded, such as bonds, real estate, currencies and commodities.

 

 If this is not a bull market I don't know what would be!

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...


@Bentley wrote:

A bull market is the condition of a financial market in which prices are rising or are expected to rise.

The term "bull market" is most often used to refer to the stock market but can be applied to anything that is traded, such as bonds, real estate, currencies and commodities.

 

 If this is not a bull market I don't know what would be!


Good point. Given the proximity of the recent, vicious bear I am not sure this is - but don't take my definition.

I would personally view this as a bull market when we retrace the recent 52 week high in either the S&P500 or the US TSM, until then I personally call this a bear market rally/trap. 

All the best Bentley !!

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Re: Actions You Are Taking During This Bear Market...

 

Buying more, just as every month for  >  40  years

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