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Follower ○○○

Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

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28 Replies
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

Yes.

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

"Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?"

Yes

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

There were already - a stock crash [2/19/20- ] and a bond crash [3/5/20- ]. Oh, you mean another?

YBB
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Explorer ○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

I'm more inclined to believe a serious fall-off will occur about the time of the election or shortly afterwards.  It won't matter whether the Jerk or the Joke wins.  People will finally accept that recovery will take a lot longer than presently being touted.

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Participant ○○○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

Yes.

Oh wait, maybe!

On second thought, No!

FWIW, your guess is as good as mine.

 

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Participant ○○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

Will we have Elections? Jared has already floated the possibility of postponement. It was shot down quickly, but it was a revealing glimpse of what the White House was certainly thinking about.

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Explorer ○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

To me, a crash seems unlikely.  Don’t fight the Fed... and the Fed is doing everything possible to support the economy.  Plus, it is an election year.  The President and Republicans will do everything possible to support the economy and prevent a crash.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

       No, without a big unknown that affects the whole world. If you read some other countries English language papers most are making measured progress under the same political, financial etc. conditions. We’re all connected now whether you like it or not.

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

yes.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?


@steelpony10 wrote:

      No. It might be a long slow climb out of this hole though. 


I agree pony. We may have another big draw-down, but what seems most likely is a slow, perlonged, not really as much a recovery as it is starting back a bit, then moving forward. I think we may see a higher market point leveling off this year. What will bring the market down would be an unexpected rise in new coronavirus cases with opening up the economy/ country.

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Contributor ○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

No, I don't believe we will have another crash.  The disease is no longer a surprise.  We know a lot more about it and I do not believe the Governors will close the economy again.  There will be riots in the streets if they try. (Or at least new lawsuits.)

Yes, we will have elections.  Electors choose the President.  State legislatures determine the method for choosing electors.  All 50 state legislatures now require a popular vote.  Doesn't anyone remember that Hillary won the popular vote but Trump became the President by winning the electoral college?  Read the Constitution.  The President does not have the power to change the election.

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Participant ○○○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

Crashes come when you least expect them - so I am not expecting one before the elections -:)

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

The reason I believe another crash could occur, second leg, has to do with the lack of full understanding of what impact we have truly experienced.  We are just now reopening the economy, and there is every possibility we will have a very weak consumer return to spending to boost the economy--bankruptcies, loss of jobs permanently, huge losses in small businesses, etc.  The other huge issue is that states and major cities have been devastated with loss of income, to the point that almost every Governor and major city Mayor is indicating how huge of a hole they are now in--they use the word bankrupt to describe their situation repeatedly.  The final component we have not fully grasped yet is inflation--looks like we are just now seeing huge increases in prices starting to occur and we have a major unemployment problem and major loss of worker/family ability to increase income to cover prices.   Once things like this start becoming clear, I think we will see shocking reality of how impacting, likely long term impacting, all of this will have on our economy.

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Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?


@dtconroe wrote:

The reason I believe another crash could occur, second leg, has to do with the lack of full understanding of what impact we have truly experienced.  We are just now reopening the economy, and there is every possibility we will have a very weak consumer return to spending to boost the economy--bankruptcies, loss of jobs permanently, huge losses in small businesses, etc.  The other huge issue is that states and major cities have been devastated with loss of income, to the point that almost every Governor and major city Mayor is indicating how huge of a hole they are now in--they use the word bankrupt to describe their situation repeatedly.  The final component we have not fully grasped yet is inflation--looks like we are just now seeing huge increases in prices starting to occur and we have a major unemployment problem and major loss of worker/family ability to increase income to cover prices.   Once things like this start becoming clear, I think we will see shocking reality of how impacting, likely long term impacting, all of this will have on our economy.


 

Well said, dt.

That's why I am staying away from municipal and try to have minimal exposure to corporate bonds, at this time. However, if inflation makes an appearance then I would have to re-evaluate the holdings in my portfolio.

But, good luck in the meantime,

Fred

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

       My perspective tells me this is only a two-three month situation in the US so far. Six months or so for the world. Not to make light of world suffering but it’s a 1% world dilemma no one in modern times has experienced blown way out of proportion by world media sources, governments etc. into a “War of the Worlds” overreaction. This is not the Great Depression which lasted for years, the plague or Spanish flu. That alone may drag out economic recovery. I don’t know if you need a crash just introduce fear at a steady pace. A trading range, wait and see, modulated by fear like a “second wave” etc. until the populace says @%”$ it.🍀

           

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Contributor ○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

I agree this is not the Great Depression.  If I remember history correctly the stock market was run exceptionally high on borrowed money just before the crash of 1929.  Banks went out of business.  People lost their entire savings.  Our modern banks are on sound footing.  I just received a letter last week saying all deposits were FDIC insured up to $250,000.

The Great Depression had other causes than the stock market crash.  Manifest Destiny and the opening of lands to farmers plowed under grassland and when the drought came in 1931 it created the Great Dust Bowl out west.  The drought went all the way up into the Midwest.  "By 1934, an estimated 35 million acres of formerly cultivated land had been rendered useless for farming, while another 125 million acres—an area roughly three-quarters the size of Texas—was rapidly losing its topsoil.  Regular rainfall returned to the region by the end of 1939, bringing the Dust Bowl years to a close." 

https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/dust-bowl

Black Blizzards stretched from the Great Plains to New York City and Washington D.C. Starving farmers abandoned their land and moved into cities looking for work.  But there was no work available.

Modern farmers have developed farming techniques such as winter cover crops and chip and seal tilling to save the topsoil.  The Great Dust Bowl is unlikely to happen again.

With banks intact, peoples savings protected, and farmers in the field I don't think we will see anything like the Great Depression.  Yes, companies are going to go out of business but states are already lengthening generous unemployment benefits from 12 weeks to 6 months or more.

I suspect there will be states that go bankrupt for lack of tax revenue.  These will be the states that were in bad financial condition before the pandemic.  I am personally opposed to paying for their pre-pandemic lavish spending.  But, since our federal government seems to be working on the Money Monetary Theory  who knows what it will do in the next round of trillion dollar stimulus packages.

All that money has to go somewhere and most people are not inclined to save.  I suspect we will see inflation even if some of the companies are gone forever.  If inflation reaches the level of the 1970s then all our retirement plans are in trouble.

 

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Contributor ○○○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

A down leg, yes. A crash again like in March, no. All due to not many understanding how bad the economy will be.

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Contributor ○○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

Yes, no, a definite maybe.

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Does anybody think that there could be a crash before the Elections?

before?  don't think so.  after?  absolutely ... no matter who wins.

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