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When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

I'm sorry.  I found myself agreeing with some of the things they said such as a phased approach, having the capacity to treat infected, opening low risk business such as low risk restaurants with seating far apart first and not large attendance attractions.  All of those things were in Indiana's phased approach that I described last week in another thread.  But I stopped reading when they suggested individuals would need to be tested and need a government permit to leave the house.  Unbelievable.  

 

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

Lot of this what-if discussion evaporates once credible therapies to avert serious complications are discovered/manufactured.

Until then, it is just a guessing game with a bit of politics sprinkled into it.

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

Yes, it is a complicated systems engineering/risk mitigation task with a lot of trade-off factors such as business survivability/effectiveness, privacy, freedom, health risks, localities, medical technologies, timeline, treatments. 

Hopefully some think tanks and task force are proactively working on it and develop smart strategies timely and effectively.  

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

I think we open when we have a plan.   Testing is still "3rd world," as many states have tested less than 1% of their populations.  I'm hearing the Abbott Labs test is faulty as well.  We don't have a plan to contact trace either.   Faulty plan to fight the virus....faulty plan to battle the virus....seems like we have a faulty plan to open up.  Case in point, a lot of states didn't meet the White House guidelines yet they are opening up.   

We are currently in a depression.   We are going to go into a recession and stay their for a prolonged time.  

 

 

 


@Hootz wrote:

 

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/u-s-economy-reopen/?utm_source=kw_newsletter&utm_medium=...

 

 


 

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?


@51hh wrote:

Yes, it is a complicated systems engineering/risk mitigation task with a lot of trade-off factors such as business survivability/effectiveness, privacy, freedom, health risks, localities, medical technologies, timeline, treatments. 

Hopefully some think tanks and task force are proactively working on it and develop smart strategies timely and effectively.  


Lots of people are working on it, and have been for some time, but the economy is still re-opening up despite what the politicians say about it!  The complicated risk/reward systems engineering analysis should have been done BEFORE the politicians shut down the economy, IMO, H as always.  We had a thread about this a few months ago.

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?


@Hootz wrote:

 

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/u-s-economy-reopen/?utm_source=kw_newsletter&utm_medium=...

        Definitely by the states only as they see fit but in my opinion low risk regions of each state first. That probably means big cities or crowded areas last. Of course it seems so far in my state it’s going by the highest tax payers, golfers and manufacturers, among the first. Lol. At least they hit two classes.

         In everyone’s defense there is no game plan for this situation so hopefully next time the U.S and the world will handle the situation in a more appropriate way. Thank God the career bureaucrats know what to do. All the elected officials and media is where the inexperienced shows. As a suggestion read some English language foreign papers. You’ll find the same human reactions. The downside of being all connected is dissent travels fast.

       *Mustang - the gold star program is right out of Nazi Germany.

 

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?


@ElLobo wrote:

  

Lots of people are working on it, and have been for some time, but the economy is still re-opening up despite what the politicians say about it!  The complicated risk/reward systems engineering analysis should have been done BEFORE the politicians shut down the economy, IMO, H as always.  We had a thread about this a few months ago.


I think it is 'some politicians say about it and most health care professionals say about it'. I think managed reopening is a good idea; however, there is a clear need to have older folks stay home as much as possible. I find it very boring, siting at home, but catching this nasty virus would be far worse. People need to use common sense, just deal wit it the best you can and stay safe!

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

We say we want science and math to help drive our decisions. We just completed our first series of random tests.  Random tests test the healthy, the sick, those that recovered, etc.  They are used to get an idea of what is happening in the general population.  Here are the preliminary results:

5,000 notices went out to random individuals to show up for testing between Apr 25-May 1.  4,611 showed up.  1.7% tested positive and 1.1% had antibodies.  This gives us a population prevalence of 2.8%.  In Indiana it is estimated that around 186,000 have either previously had or still have the virus.  And it gives us an estimated infection fatality rate of 0.58% (1080 have died divided by 186,000+1080).

44.8% of those having the virus never had any symptoms.  It also identified that someone living with another who has the virus is 12 times more likely to catch it.  This suggests that social distancing works and that the virus can be confined to households.

Blacks and Hispanics are more affected than Whites.  A reason has not yet been determined.  (Before anyone yells racism I suspect it is because a greater proportion live and work in cities and population centers have been hit much harder than rural communities.)  They did break it down by districts.  The state was divided into 10 districts.  The district down by Cinncinnati was 4.9%, the district containing Indianapolis was 4.2% and the district up by Chicago was 3.2%.  The rural district where I live was close to average.  It was 2.9%.

That is all that they covered in the briefing.  I hope I wrote down everything correctly.  More random tests are scheduled.

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

We have to open. And people need to understand that there will be more cases. It's whether those cases end up in the hospital. That's the key. That X number of people got sick is one thing. That none of them ended up in the hospital tells you what we need to know. 

So when the stats come out about how many new cases, try to find how may ended up in the hospital or how many had serious complications. And how many in hospital have immune compromised systems. Or are over 65. 

The media will push the raw numbers without drilling down as that's the scariest number. 

180 people in Butte County California are in quarantine because of a church service were one person was sick with the virus. (Why that one person went out when they were sick has yet to be uncovered). So we need to see how many of these 180 end up in hospital or with serious case and whether they have immune compromised system and are over 65. 

Restaurants are starting to open. I can't wait. I'm tired of my cooking. 

 

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?


@Mustang wrote:

We say we want science and math to help drive our decisions. We just completed our first series of random tests.  Random tests test the healthy, the sick, those that recovered, etc.  They are used to get an idea of what is happening in the general population.  Here are the preliminary results:

5,000 notices went out to random individuals to show up for testing between Apr 25-May 1.  4,611 showed up.  1.7% tested positive and 1.1% had antibodies.  This gives us a population prevalence of 2.8%.  In Indiana it is estimated that around 186,000 have either previously had or still have the virus.  And it gives us an estimated infection fatality rate of 0.58% (1080 have died divided by 186,000+1080).

44.8% of those having the virus never had any symptoms.  It also identified that someone living with another who has the virus is 12 times more likely to catch it.  This suggests that social distancing works and that the virus can be confined to households.

Blacks and Hispanics are more affected than Whites.  A reason has not yet been determined.  (Before anyone yells racism I suspect it is because a greater proportion live and work in cities and population centers have been hit much harder than rural communities.)  They did break it down by districts.  The state was divided into 10 districts.  The district down by Cinncinnati was 4.9%, the district containing Indianapolis was 4.2% and the district up by Chicago was 3.2%.  The rural district where I live was close to average.  It was 2.9%.

That is all that they covered in the briefing.  I hope I wrote down everything correctly.  More random tests are scheduled.


Very thoughtful, fact-based post Mustang! A part of me thinks we as a country have to push forward to reopen the economy and step up/down the speed of reopening by closely monitoring the situation. The late spring, summer time is the best time to do more reopening before the fall arrives and possibly increasing the risks of the virus return.

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

I think places with low population densities can reopen fully now subject to common sense guidelines - washing hands, social distancing as much as is practical.  They might get back to what they were.  You have to decide how much exposure you want to high risk situations - e.g. a crowded bar, keeping in view the fact that if you get infected you will likely transmit the virus to your household and those you have close contact with (coworkers and friends). Big cities cannot go back to doings things as before until a vaccine is available, and as that is a long way off they need to reopen with some changes to reduce spread.  Everybody has to mask up, hand sanitizer available everywhere, etc. 

I will continue to work, in hospitals, and so will remain at risk of exposure.  I have not been tested, so I don't know if I've had an asymptomatic infection already.  Outside of work, I'll do what I can to reduce my risk. I will wear a mask when social distancing is impractical  - e.g. at the grocery store.  For each "discretionary" exposure I'll evaluate the risks and benefits each time.  That basically means no planes or trains, restaurants, malls, bars, theaters, concerts, parties, sporting events, etc.  To the extent that my spending (and that of others who will act similarly) remains down, the economy will contract.

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?


@SJ60 wrote:

I think places with low population densities can reopen fully now subject to common sense guidelines - washing hands, social distancing as much as is practical.  They might get back to what they were.  You have to decide how much exposure you want to high risk situations - e.g. a crowded bar, keeping in view the fact that if you get infected you will likely transmit the virus to your household and those you have close contact with (coworkers and friends). Big cities cannot go back to doings things as before until a vaccine is available, and as that is a long way off they need to reopen with some changes to reduce spread.  Everybody has to mask up, hand sanitizer available everywhere, etc. 

I will continue to work, in hospitals, and so will remain at risk of exposure.  I have not been tested, so I don't know if I've had an asymptomatic infection already.  Outside of work, I'll do what I can to reduce my risk. I will wear a mask when social distancing is impractical  - e.g. at the grocery store.  For each "discretionary" exposure I'll evaluate the risks and benefits each time.  That basically means no planes or trains, restaurants, malls, bars, theaters, concerts, parties, sporting events, etc.  To the extent that my spending (and that of others who will act similarly) remains down, the economy will contract.


That's what's happening, in essence, everywhere.  People, locally, are deciding when and how to reopen, regardless of what the politicians, who control things, say or do.  Whenever pressed by those same politicians, courts have found in favor of the people.

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

Rather than dump trillions into the economy and drive us into a depression, we might have spent 1% of that amount to offer TRIPLE SALARIES to  caregivers to remain quarantined with the elderly or ailing to protect them.  Another 1% of the trillions might have gone to pay the morbidly obese & diabetic to agree to technological remain-at-home observation and guaranteeing their jobs when the virus clears.  Meals-on-Wheels might have been greatly ramped up to feed those voluntary shut-ins.  Heck, we might even have given Boy Scouts and Girls Scouts a purpose in their lives by enlisting them to deliver food to virus-free protective quarantined people. The rest of society -- the young and healthy might have gone about their business.  This shut-down depression, I believe, was a self-inflicted folly by politicians who needed to show they were "doing something".

BTW.   I'm 71 and, like many others, have been a voluntary shut in.

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?


@ElLobo wrote:

@SJ60 wrote:

I think places with low population densities can reopen fully now subject to common sense guidelines - washing hands, social distancing as much as is practical.  They might get back to what they were.  You have to decide how much exposure you want to high risk situations - e.g. a crowded bar, keeping in view the fact that if you get infected you will likely transmit the virus to your household and those you have close contact with (coworkers and friends). Big cities cannot go back to doings things as before until a vaccine is available, and as that is a long way off they need to reopen with some changes to reduce spread.  Everybody has to mask up, hand sanitizer available everywhere, etc. 

I will continue to work, in hospitals, and so will remain at risk of exposure.  I have not been tested, so I don't know if I've had an asymptomatic infection already.  Outside of work, I'll do what I can to reduce my risk. I will wear a mask when social distancing is impractical  - e.g. at the grocery store.  For each "discretionary" exposure I'll evaluate the risks and benefits each time.  That basically means no planes or trains, restaurants, malls, bars, theaters, concerts, parties, sporting events, etc.  To the extent that my spending (and that of others who will act similarly) remains down, the economy will contract.


That's what's happening, in essence, everywhere.  People, locally, are deciding when and how to reopen, regardless of what the politicians, who control things, say or do.  Whenever pressed by those same politicians, courts have found in favor of the people.


ElBobo, here we go again with your spin. I am in red, (we are clean but Brighton's numbers are throwing us off), I am missing the Saxon Club and the Saxon Club is missing my money.  Across Divison, you are in yellow, but please don't try to convince the good folks here that "People, locally, are deciding when and how to reopen, regardless of what the politicians, who control things, say or do". You can't buy a drink in a bar any more than I can. Capisce?

Welcome to Ellwood City, not one of the safest communities in America. The wild wild west, where men are men and women are too.

Your friend,

Hootz

 

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

Hi Mustang,

You wrote:

"Blacks and Hispanics are more affected than Whites. A reason has not yet been determined. (Before anyone yells racism I suspect it is because a greater proportion live and work in cities and population centers have been hit much harder than rural communities.) They did break it down by districts. The state was divided into 10 districts. The district down by Cinncinnati was 4.9%, the district containing Indianapolis was 4.2% and the district up by Chicago was 3.2%. The rural district where I live was close to average. It was 2.9%."

Yes.  That is the case here in Michigan and it is being tracked systematically by race and zip code.  We also have a black Lt. Governor--a really smart guy. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garlin_Gilchrist

No cries of racism heard around here despite some banners that might have been on the streets of Berlin in the 30s.

Our disciplined governor has a clear six-phase plan and we, too, are divided into regions.  Two regions were reopened as of yesterday--but principally to local inhabitants.  They are popular resort and camping areas.

A step at a time seems to me a good plan, but I'm an old guy (77) not subject to hissy fits.

All the best.

Bob

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

"That's what's happening, in essence, everywhere. People, locally, are deciding when and how to reopen, regardless of what the politicians, who control things, say or do. Whenever pressed by those same politicians, courts have found in favor of the people."

Well, they're certainly headed in that direction.

The plaintiffs are business owners, aggrieved private citizens, pastors and in some cases, state legislators and legislatures.

The targets? Almost always Democratic governors or their top health appointees.

By my count, more than a dozen states across the country have faced lawsuits over their lock-down mandates — although it’s not clear whether any will be as successful as the litigation filed by Wisconsin’s Republican-led Legislature.

Since Monday, In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration on Friday defended her unilateral extension of the state’s emergency declaration and its stay-at-home order against a lawsuit brought, as in Wisconsin, by the GOP-controlled Legislature after it voted to deny her an extension last month.  Clearly, in her mind, the 'Gretch' knows what's best for Michigan citizens and small business, although for large businesses, such as auto manufacturers, it seems there's a separate standard and they can return to work. Hmmmm. I guess keeping the labor unitons and large corporate donors on your side is an exemption from lock-down.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing more than a dozen lawsuits challenging everything from beach to business closures. And earlier in May a coalition of business owners sued Maine Gov. Janet Mills, also a Democrat, seeking to end that state’s shelter-in-place order.

I wonder if these governors get up every morning and take a stupid pill before going to work?

On a personal note.....

Just got back a few hours ago from local Dollar General and Safeway. The line to the checkout for DG was long, as only two registers were running, manned by the store manager and (I believe) his wife, who were going as fast as they could. I couldn't help but ask where his regular employees were. His reply "home due to lockdown and because they are making more from unemployment and the stimulus check than working here (after tax and withholdings)"

Cute!

BruceM

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

Give it a rest, Bruce.

You don't know crap about Michigan.

Yeah, it's personal. 

Of course, you are always welcome on the streets of the state capitol. The state police will be there to greet you.

Whitmer approval rating:

https://tinyurl.com/ybhd8bv5

Bob

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

Perhaps if the minimum wage was raised to a living wage, they might come in.  In 1965 the minimum wage was $1.65.  That's $13.43 today. 

Today the Va. State Supreme Court upheld the governor's executive orders regarding business closures. Interestingly, the governor's authority in this was last updated in legislation in 2000 when the governor and both houses of the General Assembly were held by republicans (Emergency Services and Disaster Law, § 44-146.13 et. seq.) 

Of course, Governor Northam wasn't the first Virginia governor to use this authority in a health emergency; the polio epidemic of 1950, the pandemic of 1918 come to mind.  But even George Washington recognized the value of quarantine, but alas, I doubt many have the interest I do when it comes to going that far back. 

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Re: When — and How — Should the U.S. Economy Reopen?

" His reply "home due to lockdown and because they are making more from unemployment and the stimulus check than working here (after tax and withholdings)"

Bruce,

One of two things are happening there.  Either they are open in violation of the Governor's order, or they haven't called their employees back to work.  If they had they wouldn't be getting "more to stay home." since they would be cut off from UI.  And if they were home "because of the lockdown", then it would be illegal for them to be at work, so wrong for their employer to suggest that they are staying home because they make more.  So which is it?  My guess is open illegally.

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