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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

Thanks for your excellent answer! It is so well written that you should submit it to the Times or another OP Ed page. I have joy in my life but this is the first time I have seen something as strange as a lockdown pandemic.

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@bilperk wrote:

The pandemic will ease when selfish and ignorant people begin to listen to their public health officials.  Communicable disease is not that complicated once the mode of transmission is known.  Break that chain of transmission and the disease will fade.  Once we have both a vaccine and a good treatment, it will go the way of polio, yellow fever, and other major diseases.

People with the "let it run its course" attitude are a huge part of the problem.  Here in Florida, we have seen a 500% rise in cases since the pressure to reopen the economy and beaches a month ago.

Ultimately, the economy will be hurt far worse by opening too soon and then having many of the workers get sick, with many dying.  This is what is happening now. 


Bill,

I basically agree with you, but have a question.

My reading suggests that Covid-19 is mainly transmitted in closed, poorly ventilated spaces. Lots of people are spending more time indoors in the hot states during the Summer.

Opening the beaches might not be a problem at all. But, having a drink at an indoor bar or eating at McDonald's is a different story. 

Do you have any insight?

TIA,

Norbert

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@ElLobo wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

Can you even show me a reference to "artificial selection" even applying to humans?  Artificial selection deals with the breading of animals and plants to obtains desired traits, as opposed to natural selection which leads to optimal "fitness".  


@ElLobo wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@ElLobo wrote:

@bilperk @rumples 

Yup, Chicken Little and Henny Penny still believe the sky is falling and still don't understand the difference between Darwin's law of Natural Selection compared to the law of artificial selection!  8-))


I understand that YOU don't understand it.  It has nothing to do with a 5-month-old pandemic.


The prime example of 'artificial selection' during the current pandemic is whenever a nursing home, whose usual population is more prone to being adversly affected by the virus, is forced to take in those who had the virus!  8-))


 


Um, the difference between 'natural' selection and 'artificial' selection is whether or not humans AFFECT things!  The prime example of 'artificial selection' is eugenics, where less 'desirables' are weeded out, so to speak!  Do you need any examples, Bill?  8-))

From "Difference Between Natural Selection and Artificial Selection"

"Evolution may evolve through many mechanisms like mutation, migration, genetic drift but natural selection is the most famous and the most strongly accepted one. While Artificial selection involves unnatural selection or selective breeding, with the interference of humans activity."

Think beyond breeding to pandemic related deaths, the subject of this thread, Bill!  8-))


As I said, it isn't about selecting HUMANS, it is about humans breeding plants and animals for their desired change.  There is no "artificial selection" in humans since we won WWI and stopped Germany.  Nursing home issues is not an example of artificial selection, nor is giving people medical treatment.

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@Warren1 wrote:
Thanks for your excellent answer! It is so well written that you should submit it to the Times or another OP Ed page. I have joy in my life but this is the first time I have seen something as strange as a lockdown pandemic.

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      Thanks for the compliment Warren. Your first usually has lasting effects. My Depression era parents “invested” in CD’s their whole life. This is about my 7th time going through this stuff.
     
        This is the first of this type for all of us but all the others were unique also. Investor and the Feds reaction is the same every time. The market climbs like stair steps. The timespan to the next step up is always unknown. 

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@norbertc wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

The pandemic will ease when selfish and ignorant people begin to listen to their public health officials.  Communicable disease is not that complicated once the mode of transmission is known.  Break that chain of transmission and the disease will fade.  Once we have both a vaccine and a good treatment, it will go the way of polio, yellow fever, and other major diseases.

People with the "let it run its course" attitude are a huge part of the problem.  Here in Florida, we have seen a 500% rise in cases since the pressure to reopen the economy and beaches a month ago.

Ultimately, the economy will be hurt far worse by opening too soon and then having many of the workers get sick, with many dying.  This is what is happening now. 


Bill,

I basically agree with you, but have a question.

My reading suggests that Covid-19 is mainly transmitted in closed, poorly ventilated spaces. Lots of people are spending more time indoors in the hot states during the Summer.

Opening the beaches might not be a problem at all. But, having a drink at an indoor bar or eating at McDonald's is a different story. 

Do you have any insight?

TIA,

Norbert


Florida beaches are now being closed due to the 500% increase in cases and the almost total lack of compliance with stated precautions.  Outdoors is clearly better than indoors, but without distancing, the virus still spreads outdoors.  And it will not happen on area beaches.  What is happening is the beach was the ONLY place to go and socialize since the bars and other area shops were pretty much closed.  60+% of our new cases are folks under 40.  Folks under 40 are invincible but their parents and grandparents aren't.

Going out for a walk and staying away from others is a fine idea.  Mandatory masks are now the rule where I live as of tonight.

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

"Nursing home issues is not an example of artificial selection, nor is giving people medical treatment."

LOL.  It IS an artificial selection of people over a certain age and it is about giving them the treatment that they received in the nursing home!  Unfortunately, that 'good' treatment evolved, artificially, into a much higher than 'natural' death rate for those individuals!  Had they NOT been sent to those nursing homes, presumably their death rate would have been lower, naturally!  8-))

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@ElLobo wrote:

"Nursing home issues is not an example of artificial selection, nor is giving people medical treatment."

LOL.  It IS an artificial selection of people over a certain age and it is about giving them the treatment that they received in the nursing home!  Unfortunately, that 'good' treatment evolved, artificially, into a much higher than 'natural' death rate for those individuals!  Had they NOT been sent to those nursing homes, presumably their death rate would have been lower, naturally!  8-))


I assume in your mind then those 30,000 gun deaths each year are also artificial selection.  Still waiting for a  scientific reference suggesting artificial selection has anything to do with humans doing something to humans, as opposed to creating bi-color corn.

 

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

Yes, shocks are actually good for the system as they shake out a lot of the excesses and systemic problems that build-up towards the end of a long cycle. To use a virus as an analogy, when you catch a cold your system is telling you to slow down. That's a time to reflect, which often reveals underlying problems. If you keep taking vitamin C to stave it off, it just puts off the inevitable possibly making matters worse. Dot.com crash gave us the FAANGs. The credit crisis was not caused by technology-related boom but by misguided financial innovation, so no clear benefits emerged. In some senses, what we may see happening will be the lingering effects of the credit crisis playing out. The virus, though damaging in its own right, was merely the catalyst.

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

As pandemics go, this is not in the same league as the Spanish Flu from a century ago.  Spanish Flu killed at least 50 million, some estimates are as high as 100 million, out of a much smaller population base than our current 7 billion, and it was followed by the Great Depression, then WW-2. Humanity managed to then make huge advances economically and politically over the next several decades.

By the time COVID-19 is done, we'll probably have 10 or 20 million dead, but as a species we'll be fine.  We will get a vaccine, and a decade or two from now from we'll have as many antivirals as we have antibacterials today. Plague and typhus are still scary to get, and if not recognized early will kill people, but there is no way they'll kill millions today because we have antibiotics.

The social effects are more concerning. In a sense, COVID-19 may administer the coup de grace to American power and has revealed the rot at the heart of our political and economic institutions.  Will the US survive in its present form or will we descend into a second Civil War, or experience the second American Revolution?  All bets are off.

That said, when it comes to the survival of humanity as a whole, I'm far more concerned about advances in artificial intelligence making the average human dumber, and the Big Brother style surveillance by the State eroding freedom of speech and thought. Fortunately, I'm not likely to live that long.

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@ElLobo wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@ElLobo wrote:

"Nursing home issues is not an example of artificial selection, nor is giving people medical treatment."

LOL.  It IS an artificial selection of people over a certain age and it is about giving them the treatment that they received in the nursing home!  Unfortunately, that 'good' treatment evolved, artificially, into a much higher than 'natural' death rate for those individuals!  Had they NOT been sent to those nursing homes, presumably their death rate would have been lower, naturally!  8-))


I assume in your mind then those 30,000 gun deaths each year are also artificial selection.  Still waiting for a  scientific reference suggesting artificial selection has anything to do with humans doing something to humans, as opposed to creating bi-color corn.

 


Nopers, I'm suggesting that 4,500 elderly people were artificially chosen to die, rather than being naturally selected, sorta like your Nazis did in WWII!  8-))


         Hey El what are you guys arguing about. Your toying with entering the banded “hall of fame”.

         I’ll solve this once and for all. Ha. Ha. In times of war a good populace forgot their differences and worked towards the common good “for all”. In my opinion we have a vocal and hateful element to our society now. That along with the National Inquirers’ business model grabs all the headlines. Americans and people In general around the world deserve better then this. Too bad all the world’s information flow seems dominated by so few and hateful.

           The suffering and death will be worse in the U.S. because of the actions of the thoughtless few. Many viruses die off in warm weather which is probably why this one took so long to spread south of the equator, now their winter season. The actions of a few now act as hosts during our summer carrying the pandemic into the fall, colder weather and the next flu season thus hurting and helping kill more Americans needlessly. How self centered, vile and thoughtless can one be. 
           
             So the answer is some will be randomly murdered while authorities stick their fingers in the air checking the political correctness breezes. Heaven help any leader anywhere who has the guts to at least back the right course of action. 
             
              Sorry about your thread Warren.
             

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@steelpony10 wrote:

@ElLobo wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@ElLobo wrote:

"Nursing home issues is not an example of artificial selection, nor is giving people medical treatment."

LOL.  It IS an artificial selection of people over a certain age and it is about giving them the treatment that they received in the nursing home!  Unfortunately, that 'good' treatment evolved, artificially, into a much higher than 'natural' death rate for those individuals!  Had they NOT been sent to those nursing homes, presumably their death rate would have been lower, naturally!  8-))


I assume in your mind then those 30,000 gun deaths each year are also artificial selection.  Still waiting for a  scientific reference suggesting artificial selection has anything to do with humans doing something to humans, as opposed to creating bi-color corn.

 


Nopers, I'm suggesting that 4,500 elderly people were artificially chosen to die, rather than being naturally selected, sorta like your Nazis did in WWII!  8-))


         Hey El what are you guys arguing about. Your toying with entering the banded “hall of fame”.

         I’ll solve this once and for all. Ha. Ha. In times of war a good populace forgot their differences and worked towards the common good “for all”. In my opinion we have a vocal and hateful element to our society now. That along with the National Inquirers’ business model grabs all the headlines. Americans and people In general around the world deserve better then this. Too bad all the world’s information flow seems dominated by so few and hateful.

           The suffering and death will be worse in the U.S. because of the actions of the hateful few. Most viruses die off in warm weather which is probably why this one took so long to spread south of the equator, their winter season. The actions of a few now act as hosts during our summer carrying the pandemic into the fall, colder weather and the next flu season thus hurting and helping kill more Americans needlessly. How self centered, vile and thoughtless can one be. 
           
             So the answer is some were randomly murdered while we stood by glad it was someone else.
             
             


About the only thing seems to be whether man's actions this year made things better, or worse, than without the action.  Hindsight, which is always 20/20 shows some actions went one way while other actions went the wrong way.  Nothing controversial or political about it,, hence no need for any moderator action!

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@ElLobo wrote:

@steelpony10 wrote:

@ElLobo wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@ElLobo wrote:

"Nursing home issues is not an example of artificial selection, nor is giving people medical treatment."

LOL.  It IS an artificial selection of people over a certain age and it is about giving them the treatment that they received in the nursing home!  Unfortunately, that 'good' treatment evolved, artificially, into a much higher than 'natural' death rate for those individuals!  Had they NOT been sent to those nursing homes, presumably their death rate would have been lower, naturally!  8-))


I assume in your mind then those 30,000 gun deaths each year are also artificial selection.  Still waiting for a  scientific reference suggesting artificial selection has anything to do with humans doing something to humans, as opposed to creating bi-color corn.

 


Nopers, I'm suggesting that 4,500 elderly people were artificially chosen to die, rather than being naturally selected, sorta like your Nazis did in WWII!  8-))


         Hey El what are you guys arguing about. Your toying with entering the banded “hall of fame”.

         I’ll solve this once and for all. Ha. Ha. In times of war a good populace forgot their differences and worked towards the common good “for all”. In my opinion we have a vocal and hateful element to our society now. That along with the National Inquirers’ business model grabs all the headlines. Americans and people In general around the world deserve better then this. Too bad all the world’s information flow seems dominated by so few and hateful.

           The suffering and death will be worse in the U.S. because of the actions of the hateful few. Most viruses die off in warm weather which is probably why this one took so long to spread south of the equator, their winter season. The actions of a few now act as hosts during our summer carrying the pandemic into the fall, colder weather and the next flu season thus hurting and helping kill more Americans needlessly. How self centered, vile and thoughtless can one be. 
           
             So the answer is some were randomly murdered while we stood by glad it was someone else.
             
             


About the only thing seems to be whether man's actions this year made things better, or worse, than without the action.  Hindsight, which is always 20/20 shows some actions went one way while other actions went the wrong way.  Nothing controversial or political about it,, hence no need for any moderator action!


            We’ll see. Your the one that seems to like walking the tightrope. Lol. Although I believe in general I have a lot of patience there are times you need to crack the whip. I guess you’d have to ask my kids and former business associates about that. A few can’t get their way to the detriment of the majority. Extreme shaming, peer pressure or gentle guidance seems to work in the US.

             As far as the future people don’t generally change on their own in my opinion. They’re guided to the solution and you make sure they know it was their idea with praise.✌️😷

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

I was cautiously hopeful - but after reading some of the responses here, I'm naturally and artificially pessimistic...  

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

It's something like 45% of the people who test positive for the anti-bodies (who have actually had the disease) have had no symptoms at all.  Even if they show symptoms few of the young are hospitalized.  The biggest impact is on the old who are past their child bearing days.  I'm reasonably certain the human race will be fine.

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

.

Capital
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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic

https://www.pharmalive.com/pfizer-and-biontechs-covid-19-vaccine-shows-early-positive-data/

"New York-based Pfizer and Germany-based BioNTech announced preliminary data from the most advanced of four of its vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19. The BNT162 program is studying at least four vaccines, each having a different combination of mRNA format and target antigen. The preliminary data is for BNT1621b1, which encodes an optimized SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) antigen. The research study had been uploaded to the preprint server MedRxiv, but has yet to be peer-reviewed.
“We are encouraged by the clinical data BNT1621b1, one of four mRNA constructs we are evaluating clinically, and for which we have positive, preliminary, topline findings,” said Kathrin U. Jansen, senior vice president and head of Vaccine Research & Development, Pfizer. “We are dedicated to develop potentially groundbreaking vaccines and medicines, and in the face of this global health crisis, we approach this goal with the utmost urgency. We look forward to publishing our clinical data in a peer-reviewed journal as quickly as possible.”
The initial part of the trial includes 45 healthy adults 18 to 55 years of age. The preliminary data was for 24 subjects who received two injections of 10 micrograms and 30 micrograms and 12 subjects with a single dose of 100 micrograms, and nine subjects with two doses of placeb…………………...

continued:

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@Mustang wrote:

It's something like 45% of the people who test positive for the anti-bodies (who have actually had the disease) have had no symptoms at all.  Even if they show symptoms few of the young are hospitalized.  The biggest impact is on the old who are past their child bearing days.  I'm reasonably certain the human race will be fine.


It sure would be a different world though, if all those over age 60 died. 

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@FatKat wrote:

@Mustang wrote:

It's something like 45% of the people who test positive for the anti-bodies (who have actually had the disease) have had no symptoms at all.  Even if they show symptoms few of the young are hospitalized.  The biggest impact is on the old who are past their child bearing days.  I'm reasonably certain the human race will be fine.


It sure would be a different world though, if all those over age 60 died. 


If for no other reason than that birthdays would not be cause for celebration!  8^b

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Re: Reasons to be hopeful during pandemic


@kzug wrote:

I was cautiously hopeful - but after reading some of the responses here, I'm naturally and artificially pessimistic...  


Agreed. I’ve always disliked people in general. This thread certainly gives me every reason to continue disliking people in general and to feel pretty pessimistic about our future as a society and country. 

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