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FD1001
Contributor ○○○

FD on Bonds

Note: This thread was split from the "Slightly Different Bond Thread"

They name my style Yugo...how about moped investing?   ;-)

YTD...what a crazy "volatility"?  JMSIX YTD SD=2.43%(link)...someone soon is going to be in CD...chart

pmzix 10-03.PNG

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64 Replies
FD1001
Contributor ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@dtconroe wrote:

I don't consider myself a buy and hold investor.  I have some funds I invest in as potential longer term "core holdings" (at least a year), and I invest in some funds as shorter term funds, either for "explore" purposes, or I may have just a short term holding period I am filling.   For example, I invest in HY Muni funds every year, when I think the performance should last several months, but I don't intend to hold them as longer term holdings.  Generally, my decision to sell a fund occurs when I think the fund has changed in negative ways and its performance shows some deterioration that is bothersome for me (that can vary with the fund).  For example, I held PIMIX for many years as a "core holding", but in 2016 it started changing--started incorporating HY and EM bonds, its AUM became so large that I felt it lost its ability to make portfolio changes in a short period of time to meet market conditions, it quit paying a special year end dividend, and then in 2018 it went almost the entire year with negative total return--I sold it and now will only use it as a periodic short term momentum play.  I do watch portfolio manager changes, but I watch the fund for awhile before I decide that performance is going to suffer enough to sell it.  I buy funds for specific roles in my portfolio, and if I see another fund's performance demonstrate it may be a better choice over the course of a year, I will switch funds to better fill that role--I was holding PTIAX for most of the year but its limited portfolio, that was heavily dependent on longer term Munis, seemed to lead to streaky performance, so I made the decision a month ago to sell PTIAX and replace it with ISIAX which appears more diversified, less volatile, similar yield, with a very solid performance history.


Excellent post !!! and it proves that you are a trader  :-)

Sure, it was easy to buy and hold "perfect" PIMIX (or PRWCX) for years but these are the exceptions to the rule.  Smart trading can improve results + volatility/risk.

Example: The Muni trade worked again this year but this time I was ready, sold almost half at the end of August and the rest at the beginning of Sep and bought it back starting Sep 19.

In this article(link) the author says "Muni ratios are pointing to fairly attractive valuations at the moment. The 10-yr AAA muni to US treasury ratio was 83% at the end of August which is up for the third straight month but still historically low compared to longer-term averages. We would note that the month of September is typically when the market's net negative supply turns positive. However, primarily due to tax loss harvesting and other factors, the weakest months for munis tends to be October and November." If you were out of munis and didn't buy back on the uptrend by now they are back.

 

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FD1001
Contributor ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@arriba wrote:

A LOT of perfectly good cyberspace wasted on the so-called "trader" topic. 

Allow me to waste (hopefully) the last.

For several years on M* forums, FD routinely loathed posters whom he thought were traders.  He even used to repeatedly post the long ago trades of one poster anytime he wanted to try to get in some sort of dig on that poster to try to show that poster was a bad investor, or at least as not as good as him.  

Now, for the past couple of years, FD has reportedly become a trader, racing Yugos to his heart's delight.

So now that he regards himself as a successful trader (of Bond OEFs of all things), he loves to see others trade and I think he was actually complimenting dt for being a trader with some part of his port.

But I can't say for sure because, I, like most here, have a mind (and a conscience) that works a LOT differently than FD's.

Soooooo.....PLEASE put this crap to rest.

Just IGNORE FD's post on this thread and this thread will be a much better place. 


The usual, just another angry poster that his posts need to be flagged.  It is now clear who started it. The option to post or not is mine, not yours.  Actually, the more you post, the more I will too.  

Sure, I was complementing DT.  A good post is a good post on the other hand if you post something that I don't agree with I will comment on it too.  I expect you to do the same about my posts, whenever you think I said something wrong and can prove (or improve) it, go ahead and do it.

WOW, my secret is finally out and you need a medal.  Since 2000 I have been using best risk/reward funds with momentum which equal trading.  JMHO, LT investing means at least 3 years holding time, if you trade once a week, a month or 4 times annually you are still a trader.  If 80% of your portfolio is held at least 3-5 years but you trade the 20%, you are still a trader.

My Yugo is pretty strong, no complains, I wish my portfolio will have the same Yugo performance every year :-)

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norbertc
Participant ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread

Hello @FD1001 ,

Good.  You're back.  I still haven't gotten around to joining the group at Fido.

That's cool about racing Yugos.  Let's do it online together?  We can call it the "2020 Yugo Racing Challenge".  The only rule would be to post trades on the same day we make them.

What I'm seeing is that the JM Morgan fund has had a good 2019, but looks weak compared to other favorites over a longer period.  Can we really catch the trend change in time to profit by it?  Let's try.

ScreenHunter 644.png

No interest in trading CEFs?

Norbert

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chang
Contributor ○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread

Interesting chart for JMSIX Norbert. I opened a foothold position at Schwab last month just in case the window closes. The low ER is what attracted me. Maybe LT performance isn't anything to write home about. I'm in no hurry to build it up.
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dtconroe
Participant ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@norbertc wrote:

Hello @FD1001 ,

Good.  You're back.  I still haven't gotten around to joining the group at Fido.

That's cool about racing Yugos.  Let's do it online together?  We can call it the "2020 Yugo Racing Challenge".  The only rule would be to post trades on the same day we make them.

What I'm seeing is that the JM Morgan fund has had a good 2019, but looks weak compared to other favorites over a longer period.  Can we really catch the trend change in time to profit by it?  Let's try.

ScreenHunter 644.png

No interest in trading CEFs?

Norbert


I am looking at 3 very similar funds for an open total return role I have in my portfolio.  JMSIX, JMUTX, and PUCZX are the funds that I have been evaluating.  All 3 funds have been very hot YTD performers, about doubling their more historical annual performance pattern.  I am not currently willing to put a significant amount of money into any of these funds, and have no real desire to start small foothold positions for fear I may miss some entry deadline.  Although JMSIX has done well in recent months, if you look at FDs performance chart, and change it to 3 years, you will see that from early 2016 to mid 2019, much more conservative low risk funds outperformed it, so for over 2 years it was not a very impressive performer.  I will not make an immediate investing decision regarding these 3 funds, and I currently do not see a compelling reason to choose JMSIX over JMUTX and PUCZX.

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

JMSIX/JGIAX

As noted elsewhere, Institutional JMSIX has a promo deal at Schwab, so it has only $100 min. JPM is also waiving fees for now on all classes, so ER for Institutional class is only 0.40%.

This promo may close. Many years ago, institutional LSBDX was Schwab default but then it got changed to retail LSBRX. I no longer own this aggressive multisector fund [managed by Fuss]. But it tells what may happen with JMSIX at Schwab; the retail class is JGIAX [ER 0.65% after fee waiver; NTF now at Fido].

YBB
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FD1001
Contributor ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread

I didn't start this thread.  I already have a thread where I posted my views and trades pretty closely (2019 - Bond OEFs) which is now running at Fidelity.  The problem I have is with the moderator that listens to several emotional posters and takes their side. 

dtconroe
Participant ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@FD1001 wrote:

I didn't start this thread.  I already have a thread where I posted my views and trades pretty closely (2019 - Bond OEFs) which is now running at Fidelity.  The problem I have is with the moderator that listens to several emotional posters and takes their side. 


The "moderator" on that thread has openly announced he will no longer moderate on that thread, so you are free to post on that thread and battle all those "emotional posters" until M* Ryan gets frustrated again and locks the thread, as he has on several other threads.

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FD1001
Contributor ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread

DT, I'm taking about the real moderator 😊

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Remotetrader
Follower ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@norbertc wrote:

Hello @FD1001 ,

Good.  You're back.  I still haven't gotten around to joining the group at Fido.

That's cool about racing Yugos.  Let's do it online together?  We can call it the "2020 Yugo Racing Challenge".  The only rule would be to post trades on the same day we make them.

What I'm seeing is that the JM Morgan fund has had a good 2019, but looks weak compared to other favorites over a longer period.  Can we really catch the trend change in time to profit by it?  Let's try.

ScreenHunter 644.png

No interest in trading CEFs?

Norbert


Post trades on the same day we make them?  Good rule but that leaves FD out.  All he does is post retrospectively days, weeks, and longer after his so called trades. Good analyst but terrible at execution.  Got to love those hindsight posters and their uncanny ability to always buy the lows and sell the highs.  

Community Manager RyanM Community Manager
Community Manager

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@FD1001 wrote:

I didn't start this thread.  I already have a thread where I posted my views and trades pretty closely (2019 - Bond OEFs) which is now running at Fidelity.  The problem I have is with the moderator that listens to several emotional posters and takes their side. 


FD, I have spent more time on you as a moderator than any other member of this community. If I really wanted to side with the "emotional posters" you reference, I would have banned you a long time ago. I have tried to be even-handed because I know there are some who enjoy your contributions.

You continue to disregard my requests to stop antagonizing your fellow community members. Please enjoy a 24-hour time out.

Best,

RyanM

norbertc
Participant ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@Remotetrader wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

Hello @FD1001 ,

Good.  You're back.  I still haven't gotten around to joining the group at Fido.

That's cool about racing Yugos.  Let's do it online together?  We can call it the "2020 Yugo Racing Challenge".  The only rule would be to post trades on the same day we make them.

What I'm seeing is that the JM Morgan fund has had a good 2019, but looks weak compared to other favorites over a longer period.  Can we really catch the trend change in time to profit by it?  Let's try.

ScreenHunter 644.png

No interest in trading CEFs?

Norbert


Post trades on the same day we make them?  Good rule but that leaves FD out.  All he does is post retrospectively days, weeks, and longer after his so called trades. Good analyst but terrible at execution.  Got to love those hindsight posters and their uncanny ability to always buy the lows and sell the highs.  


I'm hoping that FD will prove you wrong.  I'm sure his actual investing returns are good.  I want to work with him and see if we can't show everyone how to optimize the selection and "trading" of multi-sector bond funds.  But, I need to see those real time posts ... same day disclosure of all trades.

jmrdnc
Participant ○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread

A problem with real life trading of the recently mentioned managed OEF bond funds is their early redemption fees within  60 or 90 days of share purchase. I know because I own several of them, albeit in small amounts and without dividend reinvestment. Easier to  trade ETFs or CEFs.

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jmrdnc
Participant ○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread


@RyanM wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

I didn't start this thread.  I already have a thread where I posted my views and trades pretty closely (2019 - Bond OEFs) which is now running at Fidelity.  The problem I have is with the moderator that listens to several emotional posters and takes their side. 


 

 

FD, I have spent more time on you as a moderator than any other member of this community. If I really wanted to side with the "emotional posters" you reference, I would have banned you a long time ago. I have tried to be even-handed because I know there are some who enjoy your contributions.

You continue to disregard my requests to stop antagonizing your fellow community members. Please enjoy a 24-hour time out.

Best,

RyanM

 

To be fair, there are posters who have belittled FD and his style on various forums even when he wasn't posting. FD-DS. Even the Great YBB started the Yugo Racing name calling. Then antagonists picked it up to bully FD and by proxy others. 

 


 

yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread {Yugo Racing]

"Even the Great YBB started the Yugo Racing name calling"

Wow, I am humbled!

True that I used the Yugo-racing analogy long time ago, and when someone else tried to claim it, I corrected them.

But the idea was generic - to try to furiously trade active bond OEFs, and not even recognizing better trading vehicles such as bond CEFs - a huge blind-spot.

I get it that some want to restrict themselves to a narrow area of trading bond OEFs, but I don't get berating other people for doing something else - whatever - from buying m-mkt funds/T-Bills/CDs, to trading CEFs, to trading commodities.

YBB
PN
Participant ○○

Re: FD on Bonds

The JMSIX fee waiver is in effect through 6/30/2020 (so it will last longer than the 91 day minimum holding period at Schwab).

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/products/d/jpmorgan-income-fund-i-46637k224#/...

Jump on in, the water is warm!?! Page 2 of the Fact Sheet shows Sectors and Credit Quality as of June 30 -

https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383278544702/83456/FS-I-I.PDF?segment=AMERICAS_US_ADV&locale=en_US

Its two largest holdings are Asset Backed Securities 25.7% and Corporate High Yield 21.6%, so it is risky.

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sugarhill6
Explorer ○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread

These investment vehicles are built for long term investors.   One is already behind the curve ball if they try to approach these investments from short term perspective.   

 


@jmrdnc wrote:

A problem with real life trading of the recently mentioned managed OEF bond funds is their early redemption fees within  60 or 90 days of share purchase. I know because I own several of them, albeit in small amounts and without dividend reinvestment. Easier to  trade ETFs or CEFs.


 

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norbertc
Participant ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread {Yugo Racing]


@yogibearbull wrote:

"Even the Great YBB started the Yugo Racing name calling"

Wow, I am humbled!

True that I used the Yugo-racing analogy long time ago, and when someone else tried to claim it, I corrected them.

But the idea was generic - to try to furiously trade bond OEFs, and not even recognizing better trading vehicles such as bond CEFs - a huge blind-spot.

I get it that some want to restrict themselves to a narrow area of trading bond OEFs, but I don't get berating other people for doing something else - whatever - from buying m-mkt funds/T-Bills/CDs, to trading CEFs, to trading commodities.


My Yugo can beat your Yugo ... they're not all alike.

yugo-gv_brochure_90.jpg

yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: A Slightly Different OEF Bond Thread {Yugo Racing]

I think 2008 was the last production year for Yugo.

0-60 15.9 sec [prompting jokes if there was a pony/donkey in there]

54 hp @ 6000 rpm

57.53 lb-ft @ 3000 rpm

I-4, 64 cu ft.

https://www.auto-data.net/en/zastava-yugo-koral-1.1-54hp-11667

YBB
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