Written each Friday by Lou Barnes in Boulder, CO. Inconsistently available online. Reprinted with permission. Lou typically provides background and context to what's happening in the credit/bond world along with commentary on topical events that some readers appreciate.
The whole world is in a lot of pain and struggling with public policy, but only here in the US do we have the sense of going deeper into Alice’s rabbit hole. Every day deeper, just slowly enough that we must look backwards to feel the magnitude of craziness.
The 10-year T-note used to be mandatory watching and posting here. It could go lower, but without effect or signal. Nothing in a lower 10-year will help us to bridge to re-opening shutdown sectors:
Colorado has done better than most with mask and distance, the initial ski-town outbreaks scaring most into paying attention. But our patterns are well-studied and representative. We know of course that total cases were vastly undermeasured early, and now capture many asymptomatic, the 20-29 group swelling disproportionately. Rotten kids.
Age-weighting another way includes hospitalization. The numbers of fatalities are too small to fit on the Department of Health bars: statewide among our 5.8 million population, we’ve lost 1,691 people. The total fatalities aged under 60, which are 80% of cases: 198.
And we’ve had our relaxation second wave, which seems to have also been a second wake-up. Maintain discipline, test 3% positive, we’ll reopen schools and see how it goes.