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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Brexit Developments

Brexit Developments from old Discuss - Off-Topics is being moved here. The purpose is to track current news/developments related to Brexit.

https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/387227/3978668.aspx#3978668

Current news on UK EU elections isn't good for either the governing Tories or the opposition Labor. There is a political vacuum in which anti-EU/pro-Brexit parties are rising.   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-localelections/voters-set-to-punish-uk-pm-mays-conserv...

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312 Replies
CarlosDS
Participant ○

Re: Brexit Developments

It seems that the results of local elections mainly castigated the Conservatives (- 800 seats so far), Labor (-100 seats so far) and UKIP (- 20 seats so far). Winners are Liberal Democrats (+470 seats so far), Greens (+110 seats so far) and other minor parties (+195 seats so far).  

IMO, the implications for Brexit is that the remainers' momentum keeps growing. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/02/local-elections-2019-live-results-fo...

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OpenMind
Explorer ○○

Re: Brexit Developments


@yogibearbull wrote:

Brexit Developments from old Discuss - Off-Topics is being moved here. The purpose is to track current news/developments related to Brexit.

https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/387227/3978668.aspx#3978668

Current news on UK EU elections isn't good for either the governing Tories or the opposition Labor. There is a political vacuum in which anti-EU/pro-Brexit parties are rising.   https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-localelections/voters-set-to-punish-uk-pm-mays-conserv...


This popular thread from the old forum doesn't seem to be generating many responses here.

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

@OpenMind . Impasse on Brexit continues. History won't be kind to the current leadership in the UK  [in power or in opposition]. Now that they have some extra time, it is also being wasted. 

This thread belongs to the Connections, one of the four area of the new Discussions forum. Posts here are seen only when Community tab is open, but not when Investing tab is open. Posters so far aren't accepting M* suggestion to treat Connections as the new Off-Topic area. 

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OpenMind
Explorer ○○

Re: Brexit Developments


@yogibearbull wrote:

@OpenMind . Impasse on Brexit continues. History won't be kind to the current leadership in the UK  [in power or in opposition]. Now that they have some extra time, it is also being wasted. 

This thread belongs to the Connections, one of the four area of the new Discussions forum. Posts here are seen only when Community tab is open, but not when Investing tab is open. Posters so far aren't accepting M* suggestion to treat Connections as the new Off-Topic area. 


Yes, that was the point I was trying to make.  So far they aren't accepting it as the new Off-Topic area, and I don't expect acceptance to increase much.   It won't increase much because posters aren't going to, for the most part, be allowed to discuss politics.

I can't blame Morningstar.  In general, people don't seem to be able to discuss politics these days without engaging in personal attacks and other incivility, and those that don't have the same political philosophy treat each other as enemies.  Morningstar wants people to come to the forums primarily to help each other make better financial decisions.  The animosity generated in Off-Topic political discussions in the old forum spilled over into other forums, and didn't help create an increased spirit of cooperation - just the opposite.

I enjoy talking politics.  Too bad certain posters couldn't mind their manners.  They are the ones that pretty much ruined it for everybody.    

                

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CarlosDS
Participant ○

Re: Brexit Developments


@OpenMind wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

@OpenMind . Impasse on Brexit continues. History won't be kind to the current leadership in the UK  [in power or in opposition]. Now that they have some extra time, it is also being wasted. 

This thread belongs to the Connections, one of the four area of the new Discussions forum. Posts here are seen only when Community tab is open, but not when Investing tab is open. Posters so far aren't accepting M* suggestion to treat Connections as the new Off-Topic area. 


Yes, that was the point I was trying to make.  So far they aren't accepting it as the new Off-Topic area, and I don't expect acceptance to increase much.   It won't increase much because posters aren't going to, for the most part, be allowed to discuss politics.

I can't blame Morningstar.  In general, people don't seem to be able to discuss politics these days without engaging in personal attacks and other incivility, and those that don't have the same political philosophy treat each other as enemies.  Morningstar wants people to come to the forums primarily to help each other make better financial decisions.  The animosity generated in Off-Topic political discussions in the old forum spilled over into other forums, and didn't help create an increased spirit of cooperation - just the opposite.

I enjoy talking politics.  Too bad certain posters couldn't mind their manners.  They are the ones that pretty much ruined it for everybody.    

                


Without raising any accusatory finger, I think that the old off-topic forum reflected the same polarization that we see in the society at large every single day. Just read the actual tariff thread in the financial forum to see how politics is omnipresent. 

Regarding Brexit, the old posturing continues with no real progress. The next indicative element will be the EU elections that will happen in about 10 days or so. Personally, I expect the no-deal bexiters (Farage) and the remainders to split the elector's favor, (perhaps with more remainders than hard brexiters) showing once more that UK remains as polarized as the day of the first vote on this issue. 

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Sure, some off-topic stuff will start to seep onto Investing forums. I don't know how far that can go. Some of us here are trying to follow M* new guideline for off-topic here. Whether that catches on remains to be seen.

Looking at signin stats, I see many users online. Post views are also strong. But the number of posts is down. So, most are just browsing & watching from sidelines.

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Watch the following dates:

May 23 - EU Elections; Tories face a huge embarrassment. Nigel Farage rises again.

May-end - Deadline for May's negotiations with Corbyn/Labor.

June 3 - 4th vote on May's Brexit deal. That would also be the week that President Trump will be in the UK on a state-visit.

Info from various sources, so cannot provide a good single link.

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Boris Johnson may succeed PM May when she quits - it may be soon, in June? Boris is the first to announce his run but others may run too.  Link later - no copy/paste from Android phone.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48290760

 

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Talks with Corbyn/Labor have ended already - these were supposed to go to the end of May [the month]. But with the new talk about PM May quitting in June [voluntarily or involuntarily], Labor felt that (i) PM wasn't being flexible, and (ii) any deal with her won't work as there will soon be a new PM. This also throws in doubt the fate of the 4th vote on PM May's Brexit deal that was already expected to fail. The UK may be back to the binary options of no-Brexit or no-deal-Brexit.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48304867

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Mortmain
Follower ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Much more civilized discussion going on here. Probably not as much fun :) but a step in the right direction. Polarization has probably become more entrenched judging by Question Time and other British TV programs. Matters are made worse because May is essentially pursuing a soft Brexit, which hardliners feel is a betrayal of the leave vote. Farage is using that to muster support for his new party to cause further disruption in the EU parliament. New mono-line parties seem to be popping up everywhere. I'm not sure support for a second vote has enough widespread appeal, but I wouldn't rule anything out given the 'genuine chaos'. Interesting to see Tony Blair, the great communicator, quite active in the debate. He makes a good case for remain and against a customs union compromise, but doesn't seem concerned with the betrayal backlash that would follow a remain. One option would be to let the chips fall where they may (no pun intended). If the consequences are damaging and the EU reforms there may be a strong case to argue re-entry into the EU at some future point. If that forms part of an informal discussion it might sweeten the pill.

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Empty words, PM May's "bold" new plan is just a rehash of old ideas and probably DOA. Many MPs boycotted PM's Q&A to show lack of support and many empty seats can be seen.   https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1130525/pmqs-live-prime-ministers-questions-theresa-may-jere...

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Several media sources are projecting June 10 or earlier as PM May's quit date.

She meets Brady, Chair of 1922 Committee, on Friday morning. Either she will volunteer a quit date, or she will be presented the results of secret ballot done on Wed to change party rule on revoking one no-confidence motion per 12 mo. If the rule is revoked, she may be dumped by Tories.

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

PM May resigns effective June 7. This will affect Brexit plans - with her Brexit plan in limbo & unfixable, and the EU unwilling to renegotiate, options for the new PM will be no-Brexit [including delayed-Brexit] or no-deal-Brexit. Nigel's Brexit party is expected to win in the EU elections and will also try to create chaos within the EU.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131483/theresa-may-resigns-brexit-latest-news-prime-ministe...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/theresa-may-step-down-as-uk-prime-minister.html

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CarlosDS
Participant ○

Re: Brexit Developments

Odds have it that B. Johnson will be the next PM.

 

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

Here is full text of PM May's statement and note that she is resigning as the leader of Tory + DUP. That means she will remain PM until a new Tory leader is chosen. LINK

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norbertc
Participant ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

The future of the Tory party is at stake.  Theresa May's failure to inspire and lead on BREXIT has opened the door to Nigel Farage's new BREXIT party, which is favored to win this weekend's EU elections in the UK.

This suggests that Boris Johnson will likely become the new Prime Minister.  The Tories know that failure to respect the will of the electorate on BREXIT will destroy their party and likely open the doors to Jeremy Corbyn (a self-avowed Marxist) as the next PM. 

As mayor of London, Johnson demonstrated his ability to win over both the left and the right.  Farage respects him.  Johnson is the one person able to restore the credibility of the Tory party and lead the nation out of the grasp of the EU.

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yogibearbull
Contributor ○○○

Re: Brexit Developments

PM May will remain as caretaker PM until a new Tory leader is chosen by July-end. Most likely that would be Boris Johnson unless he does something to lose it.

What will be on PM May's schedule until July-end?

   EU Summit on May 28 to discuss top EU jobs.

   President Trump's UK visit June 3-5.

   EU Summit June 20-21. This is mainly to discuss Brexit.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1131982/Theresa-May-EU-summits-Brussels-Juncker-Brexit-plan

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