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youth
Explorer ○○○

28000

Wow!  

 

Gabe

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31 Replies
Bentley
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000

WOW???

 28,000 should come as no surprise to well-informed investors. Only a few weeks ago I confirmed my opinion of DOW heading to 28,000 despite xxxxxxxxxx telling us his advisor strongly disagreed with me and was predicting a pullback to 21,100............now that was a WOW moment if you ask me..............:))

arriba
Participant ○○

Re: 28000

Again, I thank Tom Lee for his astute 2018 EOY/2019 BOY projections for the US stock markets in 2019.

His words of wisdom resulted in HUGE TR gains this year that have significantly affected what I can/can't do the rest of my life.

As poster allind used to always say, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."

Thanks again allind for crystalizing that concept for me, and thanks again to Tom Lee for reinforcing that this would be the year to heavily roll the stock dice.

 

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Bentley
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000


@arriba wrote:

As poster allind used to always say, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."


Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.”............Jack Bogle

 

Buy and holding the market is the most effective way to ensure you do not underperform!

ElLobo
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000


@Bentley wrote:

@arriba wrote:

As poster allind used to always say, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."


Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.”............Jack Bogle

 

Buy and holding the market is the most effective way to ensure you do not underperform!


Buy a real haystack!  Think Clydesdales, not miniture pony!

Link SDYL v SPY.  The difference is that, with diveys taken as cash, SPY appreciated more ($272) over 2018 and 2019 to date, while SDYL produced $681 more income.  8-)

(UBS announced that 13 of their 2X leveraged ETNs, including SDYL, might go away next year, at their indicative value.  SDYL went above it's all time high back in October.)

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51hh
Explorer ○○○

Re: 28000

Be fearful when most (others) are greedy.

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Capital
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000

Do I have 28k 28k 28k. I got 28k 28k 28k now 29k nice to be here. A nice weekend to all.

Capital
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Gary1952
Contributor ○○○

Re: 28000

That could have been said at 25000 too. 


@51hh wrote:

Be fearful when most (others) are greedy.




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51hh
Explorer ○○○

Re: 28000

Yes, be more fearful now:D

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arriba
Participant ○○

Re: 28000


@51hh wrote:

Be fearful when most (others) are greedy.


Yeah, while that oft-parroted phrase is both worthy and insightful, the question actually is,

"Are others greedy NOW?"

For my money, the current answer is "No."  BUT, I'm thinking that will change as we approach a China trade deal and/or get phases signed, and the FOMO herd finally plunks their money down.

YMMV.

 

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norbertc
Contributor ○○

Investor Sentiment

Forbes has a piece on investor sentiment HERE. Summary of current situation:

https _blogs-images.forbes.com_investor_files_2019_11_sentiment-chart-11-14-19.jpg

Current bullish sentiment is only slightly above the historical average at 40.7%; 59% of survey participants remain neutral or bearish.  That doesn't suggest greed or euphoria.

N.

 

chang
Valued Contributor

Re: 28000


@Gary1952 wrote:

That could have been said at 25000 too. 


@51hh wrote:

Be fearful when most (others) are greedy.


People were saying the market was way overbought when the Dow crossed 14,000.

It must suck to be John P. Hussman.

yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: 28000

Forsyth in Barron's has eyes on DJIA 30,000 with no US recession in the near future and global recovery.kicking in.

YBB
racqueteer
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000

The fact that "the market" has held on and moved forward in the face of all the (largely) political uncertainty is telling,  By all reasonable standards, we probably would have had substantial pullbacks on a COUPLE occasions where they never developed; I know, because I 'bet' with the odds on those occasions!  8^b  Even HERE, I'm in caution mode!

I'M still concerned about the BREADTH of the advances; I see a number of areas not really participating.  SC seems stifled, even though borrowing rates are low.  Too, a lot of advance has to be due to buybacks funded by 'cheap' money.  Some advances due to acquisitions.  Sustainable?  Not so sure.

51hh
Explorer ○○○

Re: 28000

I do not recall the last several crashes/bear markets (1987, 2000, 2008) came with fair warnings and thoughtful analyses.:)  They all came suddenly with least/no warning signs for most (ordinary) people like me.  So, I respectfully put aside all the seemingly convincing analyses and reasonings (to be bullish) and trust my intuition to be reasonably cautious and prudently conservative (in my asset allocation) going forward.  Of course, there may be holiday rallies for the near term and for the (maybe fake) trade war optimism, but...  

BTW, almost all my co-workers in high 50s of age are now 100% in equity (and openly brag about it; sounds familiar?), that is indeed some useful and alarming information for me.      

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Highlighted
outandabout
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000

I'm NEUTRAL. That being said, I've hardly been out of the mkt. Found many good investments in individual stocks. Of my four CDs two came due this year and the other two will come due next year. I've also sold most of my collectables over the past year.

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arriba
Participant ○○

Re: 28000


@51hh wrote:

I do not recall the last several crashes/bear markets (1987, 2000, 2008) came with fair warnings and thoughtful analyses.:)  They all came suddenly with least/no warning signs for most (ordinary) people like me.  So, I respectfully put aside all the seemingly convincing analyses and reasonings (to be bullish) and trust my intuition to be reasonably cautious and prudently conservative (in my asset allocation) going forward.  Of course, there may be holiday rallies for the near term and for the (maybe fake) trade war optimism, but...  

BTW, almost all my co-workers in high 50s of age are now 100% in equity (and openly brag about it; sounds familiar?), that is indeed some useful and alarming information for me.      


Yeah. 

Maybe instead of trusting your intuition and being alarmed by your co-worker's comments, keep an eye on 3060-3063 on the S&P.   Many are calling that the last stand for bears before a worthy move higher (now started). 

As well, carefully orchestrated timing of something approximating or an actual China trade deal seems very likely to move the market higher. 

FWIW, I plan to start reducing my over-allocated stock % (to reset it to my norm) within the coming months with only a collapse below 3060-3063 or a collapse of the trade deal likely to hasten any significant port moves. 

 

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Bentley
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000

Duplicate

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Bentley
Participant ○○○

Re: 28000


@outandabout wrote:

I'm NEUTRAL. That being said, I've hardly been out of the mkt. Found many good investments in individual stocks. Of my four CDs two came due this year and the other two will come due next year. I've also sold most of my collectables over the past year.


Neutral? A few weeks ago you were discussing my forum posting with your financial advisor. You posted that he disagreed with my opinion that the market looked great and was heading higher. You even opined that the market would fall to 21,100 or 15% below 26,000.
Do you now believe that the market is efficiently priced or are you still calling for the market to retrench to 21,100?


 
@outandabout wrote:
My financial advisor

  ............. expects a 10-15% pull back from the current level of near 26,000.

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rila3400
Contributor ○

Re: 28000

 

I'm cautiously optimistic on U.S. equity markets in the near-term.
Consumer spending is keeping the economy afloat and a recession is not imminent.
A trade deal with China (I don't expect anything of substance) may provide the
impetus for the next stock market rally.

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