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arriba
Participant ○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@FD1001 wrote:

The only new finding that I have learned in the last several years is...wait...leveraged FI CEFs such as PDI,PCI can be better than stocks and...wait...I predict will be better again than stocks in the next several years.  To be sure not to suffer a huge loss use weekly MACD.


If you truly "learned" that, then why have you NOT invested in them?

Here's maybe why...I recall a couple years ago you finally test drove PDI and sold it for a loss, vowing that FI CEFs were too volatile for you.  I've seen no posts/evidence since then that supports any meaningful investment FI CEF by you.   

So I guess associating your name with them is your goal here? 

 

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chang
Valued Contributor

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@bilperk wrote:

@chang wrote:

Bill, try reading. “It will drop ... and I will sell it.”

Does it drop 40% in one day?

No.

It drops 40% in 18 months.

I will sell when it drops 5%. And pocket a handsome profit.

Are you seriously sitting there *trying* to misread, misinterpret and misunderstand what people write?

Good grief, I am starting to worry about you. Well, no, actually that’s not true. I have more important things to do.

”Own it dude”? Who talks like that?


Reflect.


LOL.  You just said you were up 5% since you bought it.  It is up 14% YTD.  The last time it was up that high was coming off the 2008 bear, and the time before it was up that high was coming of the 2000-2002 bear.  I wouldn't count on much more, it any gain.

So you are up 5% and you will sell it when it falls 5%.  But You will pocket a handsome profit?  Counting chickens, dude?

If it started falling today and fell 5% you not only wouldn't have a handsome profit, you would have a loss.


The bear market isn’t starting today.

What’s your problem?

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bilperk
Participant ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@chang wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@chang wrote:

Bill, try reading. “It will drop ... and I will sell it.”

Does it drop 40% in one day?

No.

It drops 40% in 18 months.

I will sell when it drops 5%. And pocket a handsome profit.

Are you seriously sitting there *trying* to misread, misinterpret and misunderstand what people write?

Good grief, I am starting to worry about you. Well, no, actually that’s not true. I have more important things to do.

”Own it dude”? Who talks like that?


Reflect.


LOL.  You just said you were up 5% since you bought it.  It is up 14% YTD.  The last time it was up that high was coming off the 2008 bear, and the time before it was up that high was coming of the 2000-2002 bear.  I wouldn't count on much more, it any gain.

So you are up 5% and you will sell it when it falls 5%.  But You will pocket a handsome profit?  Counting chickens, dude?

If it started falling today and fell 5% you not only wouldn't have a handsome profit, you would have a loss.


The bear market isn’t starting today.

What’s your problem?


I have no problem.  I provided data for outandabout.  You questioned it.  Fine.  I provided more data to show you were incorrect, not for you but for others.  You then began attacking my reading ability, my mental health, and so on.  Not unusual for you.  I just kept providing data.

We don't need a bear for an overpriced security to fall. nor am I saying it will fall.  The question was "can I count on the income being safe?"   Since it has gone from 1400 to 300 since inception, I'd say not, one can't COUNT on it.

As for TR, can you explain why a HY fund with its lowest yield in 40 years should be up 14% this year, of which you got 5?  A bond rally and a stock rally.  Think we will see that next year?  Election year uncertainty?

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chang
Valued Contributor

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

I criticized your reading ability because you repeatedly misread my comments.

I never commented once on income stream or TR. Only NAV fluctuation. That remains my only observation here.

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norbertc
Contributor ○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

 

Will you guys stop bickering already? 

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ctyankee
Explorer ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@chang wrote:

I’m not convinced about the VWEHX “constantly eroding NAV” claim. This has been discussed several times in the past. There is a lot of volatility in the chart. The major erosion took place from 1998-2008. Otherwise during the period from 1980-2019 it has been up and down but on the whole level. It looks pretty flat for the last five years, with the usual short term short term volatility.

Is there a fundamental reason to believe that its NAV should erode by 1% a year? If not - if this is just chart reading - then I think the situation is anything but clear.


Chang,

"constantly eroding NAV"  sic ... If you're going to put something in quotes, don't you think it should be a direct quote?  Otherwise, why put it in the form of a quote? 

ctyankee  

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chang
Valued Contributor

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@ctyankee wrote:

@chang wrote:

I’m not convinced about the VWEHX “constantly eroding NAV” claim. This has been discussed several times in the past. There is a lot of volatility in the chart. The major erosion took place from 1998-2008. Otherwise during the period from 1980-2019 it has been up and down but on the whole level. It looks pretty flat for the last five years, with the usual short term short term volatility.

Is there a fundamental reason to believe that its NAV should erode by 1% a year? If not - if this is just chart reading - then I think the situation is anything but clear.


Chang,

"constantly eroding NAV"  sic ... If you're going to put something in quotes, don't you think it should be a direct quote?  Otherwise, why put it in the form of a quote? 

ctyankee  


I put that in quotes because the allegation has been made on many occasions using different words. Bill’s comment was “its NAV erodes by 1% per year over its entire life.”

My point is that its NAV appears flat for long periods, with intermittent periods of steep erosion. The last five years have been relatively flat. Of course, over shorter intervals there is significant noise and volatility.

Hope that explains it.

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Community Manager RyanM Community Manager
Community Manager

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

Everybody good here? How about you two leave each other alone, unless you'd like a time out.

bilperk
Participant ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@RyanM wrote:

Everybody good here? How about you two leave each other alone, unless you'd like a time out.


Could you please point out where I did anything but provide information and opinion about VWEHX? I said nothing negative about Chang accept to acknowledge that he was being snippy.

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chang
Valued Contributor

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

I’m wonderful Ryan, and happy to give Bill the last word. Your advice noted and taken.
ElLobo
Participant ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@chang wrote:

@ctyankee wrote:

@chang wrote:

I’m not convinced about the VWEHX “constantly eroding NAV” claim. This has been discussed several times in the past. There is a lot of volatility in the chart. The major erosion took place from 1998-2008. Otherwise during the period from 1980-2019 it has been up and down but on the whole level. It looks pretty flat for the last five years, with the usual short term short term volatility.

Is there a fundamental reason to believe that its NAV should erode by 1% a year? If not - if this is just chart reading - then I think the situation is anything but clear.


Chang,

"constantly eroding NAV"  sic ... If you're going to put something in quotes, don't you think it should be a direct quote?  Otherwise, why put it in the form of a quote? 

ctyankee  


I put that in quotes because the allegation has been made on many occasions using different words. Bill’s comment was “its NAV erodes by 1% per year over its entire life.”

My point is that its NAV appears flat for long periods, with intermittent periods of steep erosion. The last five years have been relatively flat. Of course, over shorter intervals there is significant noise and volatility.

Hope that explains it.


The VWEHX NAV was at $10 back in December 1978.  Today, it is at $5.90, or down $4.10 since the fund came about.  A drop of $4.10, starting from $10, is a 41% total drop in NAV over 40 years, or an average of 1%/year.

The TR of VWEHX was 8.31% over it's lifetime, according to Vanguard, while it's long term capital depreciation was 1%, so the fund has had an average distribution yield of 9.31% since inception, since TR = Y +/- CG, or 8.31% = 9.31% - 1%.

Today, it distributes 5.46%, reflecting the long term bull market in bonds, where interest rates have fallen significantly since the days of WIN (Whip Inflation NOW!) 8-))

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Sheryldell
Explorer ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

Quick question:

Where do you find a chart with the NAV of VWEHX?  I thought it only reported price, unlike CEFs where you see price and NAV on the charts at M*.

If the price doesn't match NAV does that mean there is a premium/discount on VWEHX and other OEFs?

Please clarify. Thanks

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yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@Sheryldell wrote:

Quick question:

Where do you find a chart with the NAV of VWEHX?  I thought it only reported price, unlike CEFs where you see price and NAV on the charts at M*.

If the price doesn't match NAV does that mean there is a premium/discount on VWEHX and other OEFs?

Please clarify. Thanks


VWEHX Growth of 10K

VWEHX Price

For OEFs, Price = NAV. If an investor spent all distributions, then price [or NAV] is the only thing that is left.

YBB
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Highlighted
Gary1952
Contributor ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

M* needs to weigh in on this thread. They seem to love PIMIX.

 

"PIMCO Income boasts a world class team, process, and performance record. It carries a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Silver.

Dan Ivascyn and Alfred Murata have leveraged PIMCO’s bountiful--and growing--human and analytical resources, including a very large group of mortgage and real estate specialists. The evidence is long-term returns near the top of the multisector-bond Morningstar Category as of April 30, 2019.

The strategy’s nonagency residential mortgages have been a consistent contributor to its success. That sector has been shrinking at a rate of 10%-15% per year, while the fund itself has mostly grown at a furious clip. PIMCO still likes the sector for its promising return potential and modest volatility: The team has even managed to tactically raise and lower exposure to the sector, at times acquiring sizable chunks from sellers wanting or needing to unload them. After drifting down to 23% of the fund at the end of 2017--its lowest weighting since mid-2010--the team built it up to 41% a year later. (It was 36% on April 30, 2019.) The allocation comprises a mix of types, including legacy issues (9% in subprime and 10% in a mix of alt-A and prime loans) and 11% in reperforming loan securitizations. Absent a sea change in the market, though, the nonagency mortgage sector will continue to shrink. We would prefer PIMCO consider closing the strategy to new money should the managers have trouble keeping the exposure as large as they’d like, but the firm has no plans to consider that option.

We are confident the team can outperform and remain among the elite of its peers even without closing the strategy. The team slashed its agency mortgage-backed securities stake to 5.8% by August 2017 from 45% at the end of 2011 as its nonagency allocations grew, but Ivascyn and Murata built it back to 20% as of April 2019. They have rounded out the portfolio with emerging-markets debt (21%), a mix of high-yield (11.5%) and investment-grade corporates (9.5%), and non-U.S. developed markets ex-Japan (16%). The team continues to short Japan’s debt.

Performance 
| Positive | by May 22, 2019

This fund has set a high bar, with long-term returns among the multisector-bond category’s best through April 2019, with modest volatility. That has helped earn the fund a Positive Performance rating. The fund endured a modest 2008 loss that placed in the group's best decile, and has been resilient in other times of stress, such as late 2011 and the summer of 2013. That's notable given the difficulty that PIMCO's macro positioning triggered for others in the complex during the latter two stretches. And with a high-yield stake less than a third that of most rivals, the fund sailed through the fourth-quarter 2018 sell-off, and the year, with top-quartile returns.

The fund has picked up help from several areas in recent years, including, at times, exposure to falling global government-bond yields, rallying corporates, and a strong U.S. dollar. The fund’s overall duration positioning hasn’t always been optimal, but it has managed its yield-curve exposures well and has banked contributions from its rates exposures during most years since its inception. Its emerging-markets allocation has had mixed results but has been mostly helpful since 2015.

All that said, the fund's nonagency mortgage exposures have been healthy contributors to its success in recent years, almost without fail. The sector has not only posted strong returns but has done so with comparatively little volatility.

Price 
| Positive | by May 22, 2019

Even after an October 2018 fee hike, this remains one of PIMCO's most fairly priced offerings; now priced at 0.50% excluding certain investment-related expenses, its Institutional share class is still comparatively cheap. In fact, most of its assets are in share classes that rank well compared with rivals in their respective distribution channels. The fund earns a Positive Price rating.

Process 
| Positive | by May 22, 2019

Like all of PIMCO's strategies, this one relies on numerous top-down and bottom-up calls. Thanks to its income focus, the fund has weightings in higher-income areas, such as high-yield corporates and non-U.S. bonds, and has for years had a strong taste for nonagency mortgages relative to the multisector-bond category. This also means that while the fund will reflect PIMCO's macro themes when implementing its strategy, the portfolio will diverge meaningfully from siblings such as PIMCO Total Return PTTRX. The fund also typically employs some leverage, mostly via derivatives.

The team sets a monthly dividend and attempts to stick with it for at least a year. Prudence demands that number be set lower than what the portfolio’s holdings actually produce each month to avoid a shortfall, and there's usually undistributed income at each year-end, which is paid as an extra dividend to avoid running afoul of IRS tax rules. There was a bit of deviation after the fund's launch, but all of its share classes (other than C) have kept a monthly dividend of roughly $0.05, paid end-of-year bonuses, and have not returned capital to investors. That last part is crucial: It means the fund hasn't been paying out higher dividends than it has earned in portfolio income, which would otherwise translate to principal erosion over time. The balance and quality of that effort earn the fund a Positive Process rating.

The strategy has navigated several rough periods better than many peers, even avoiding the stumbles of sibling offerings, but its nonagency residential MBS have been a cornerstone of the portfolio. The sector has been shrinking at a rate of 10-15% per year, yet PIMCO has managed to raise and lower that exposure, at times acquiring big chunks from sellers wanting or needing to unload them. After drifting down to 23% of the fund at the end of 2017--ts lowest weighting since mid-2010--the team built it up to 41% a year later. (It was 36% on April 30, 2019.) The allocation comprises a mix including 11% in reperforming loans, 9% in legacy subprime, and 10% in legacy alt-A and prime loans.

The team slashed its agency MBS stake to 5.8% by August 2017 from 45% at the end of 2011 as its nonagency allocations grew but built it back to 20% as of April 2019. It has rounded out the portfolio with emerging-markets debt (21%), a mix of high-yield (11.5%) and investment-grade corporates (9.5%), and non-U.S. developed markets ex-Japan (16%). The team has continued to short Japan’s debt (20% of the fund’s market value) notably, and its currency (by 15%). The fund is nearly 99% exposed to the dollar, but that reflects some other offsetting longs and shorts, including negative 3% combined on the Australian and New Zealand dollars and long the currencies of Russia (2.4%), Argentina (1.1%), and Mexico (1%).

People 
| Positive | by May 22, 2019

Dan Ivascyn has called the shots since the fund's 2007 inception and heads PIMCO's mortgage credit effort. His profile soared in 2014, first named a deputy CIO following Mohamed El-Erian's departure in January, and then group CIO (effectively PIMCO's top investor) when Bill Gross resigned in September 2014. Moreover, Alfred Murata has been a comanager on this fund in March 2013. The duo was named Morningstar Fixed-Income Fund Manager of 2013. They were joined in July 2018 by Joshua Anderson, a specialist in structured product, real estate, and specialty finance securitizations who has worked at PIMCO since 2003.

Gross' departure introduced uncertainty to PIMCO on several levels, but the prior addition of Ivascyn and other sector specialists to the firm’s investment committee in January 2014 added useful balance, and things have stabilized since then. The size and depth of the firm's mortgage desk--including roughly 50 nonagency mortgage specialists--have been crucial to this fund, in particular, given the esoteric nature of that market's subgroups and structures. It will be important to monitor how PIMCO manages that resource, but no less so the others this fund will eventually need to rely on as the nonagency mortgage sector continues to dwindle. Of course, PIMCO has many other strengths, and this fund's management is still among the industry's best. The fund earns a Positive People rating.

Parent 
| Positive | by Eric Jacobson Oct 3, 2018

PIMCO's investment culture has long been successful, if also rigorous, demanding, and intense.

Despite worries that the turmoil after Bill Gross' 2014 departure might lead others to follow, there has been notable stability among the firm's senior investors. Meanwhile, the firm is back to a faster pace of hiring following a rough patch of asset flight and has also been taking more proactive steps in succession planning, elevating the next generation of leaders in the investment ranks.

There are other evolutionary changes in progress. CIO Dan Ivascyn has facilitated efforts to inject more diverse views into the investment process, whether by rotating a wider range of investment staff through PIMCO's Investment Committee or by incorporating more quantitative research and risk insights into the workings of that body. CEO Manny Roman has also driven significant technology investments since he arrived in 2016, intent on ensuring that the investment team's analytical tools remain cutting edge.

We have taken the firm to task for failing to share economies of scale for pricing, and while its expense profile is reasonable in the United States, it is decidedly not so in Europe. We would also prefer to see the firm give more attention to questions around closing fast-growing funds. That said, nearly all of the major factors relating to the firm's Positive Parent rating have been improving."

archer
Participant ○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

M*: "We are confident the team can outperform and remain among the elite of its peers even without closing the strategy"

I think that was a typo, and they meant regain. :-)

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Sheryldell
Explorer ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

@yogibearbull 

Thanks Yogi. How did you get that chart to display NAV like that? Using the old PIMIX link I only get the  TR lines on the chart as you posted.

Yahoo is hard to read; for that many years the screen has to be moved/scrolls Lto R to see beginning of period and end.of period.

How do you get the new M* to display NAV chart?

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ElLobo
Participant ○○○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@Sheryldell wrote:

@yogibearbull 

Thanks Yogi. How did you get that chart to display NAV like that? Using the old PIMIX link I only get the  TR lines on the chart as you posted.

Yahoo is hard to read; for that many years the screen has to be moved/scrolls Lto R to see beginning of period and end.of period.

How do you get the new M* to display NAV chart?


At the top left of the chart itself, the dropdown menu allows you to choose 'growth', 'price', or 'rolling returns'.

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yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@Sheryldell wrote:

@yogibearbull 

Thanks Yogi. How did you get that chart to display NAV like that? Using the old PIMIX link I only get the  TR lines on the chart as you posted.

Yahoo is hard to read; for that many years the screen has to be moved/scrolls Lto R to see beginning of period and end.of period.

How do you get the new M* to display NAV chart?


Access old M* Charts from here,   https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/forumtopicprintpage/board-id/mf/message-id/283/print-sin...

This is not possible with new M* Charts.

Yahoo Charts are price charts.

Stockcharts allows Growth and Price on the same chart, see VWEHX since 1/31/02 and the effect is quite dramatic,   https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VWEHX&compare=_VWEHX&id=p19986596542

 

 

YBB
archer
Participant ○

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows

Anyone know of any charts that plot PF performance daily? PV only plots monthly through the end of the last month.

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yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: PIMIX Income Fund Update: Taking a Patient Approach as Growth Slows


@archer wrote:

Anyone know of any charts that plot PF performance daily? PV only plots monthly through the end of the last month.


Use M* Portfolio - My Performance tab.

YBB
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