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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@justice wrote:

Raingater  You're late, I was not the one that brought politics into this, I was responding to SARATOGA who posted on  3/24 Bad mouthing my PRESIDENT  I will stick up for him.    TERRY


Hey Terry, give it a rest.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

The market wants to go up but I am pretty sure it’s only temporary. I have a couple of trades in the works. If it works out I’m happy. If not I own them long term. I have limit buys and sells. 

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Rally has been holding up quite well for 3 days now. I am observing and learning.

Are there reasons one can draw from such a short time frame upward movement or is it just rather random?

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@DrVenture wrote:

@Heim wrote:

I don't know what's going on, but apparently from the market pricing, it seems this so called "recession / depression" is no where near the hurt we were feeling back in December 2018. I mean December 2018 we were at 2350 S&P, and today we are at 2475. Apparently, all these travel & business closings doesn't even rate to the misery from December 2018. Time to buy big! Just my thoughts.


This has occurred to me as well. Does it imply that we need to go much further down, or that the underlying economy is strong and a lot of re-pricing has taken place since Dec 2018? I agree with your conclusion, but remain cautious.

May be. I think there will be PLENTY of buying opportunities in the near future, 2-4 weeks, and after that as well. This seems like a sugar high to me. I'm betting this market isn't going to runaway. Having said that, I wish I was still holding all the UTX I bought on Monday....Bird in the hand and all that. Stay safe.

 

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

I am learning to be flexible. Yesterdays plan and the limit orders I placed are out the window. I am looking at future buys with a completely different perspective. Particularly in relation to how far down they are YTD, as opposed to last weeks lows. Total recalibration. Trying to figure out the risk of waiting vs going all in. Downside risk vs upside return. And upside return is winning in my mind at the moment.

 

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@rhythmmethod wrote:

@DrVenture wrote:

@Heim wrote:

I don't know what's going on, but apparently from the market pricing, it seems this so called "recession / depression" is no where near the hurt we were feeling back in December 2018. I mean December 2018 we were at 2350 S&P, and today we are at 2475. Apparently, all these travel & business closings doesn't even rate to the misery from December 2018. Time to buy big! Just my thoughts.


This has occurred to me as well. Does it imply that we need to go much further down, or that the underlying economy is strong and a lot of re-pricing has taken place since Dec 2018? I agree with your conclusion, but remain cautious.

May be. I think there will be PLENTY of buying opportunities in the near future, 2-4 weeks, and after that as well. This seems like a sugar high to me. I'm betting this market isn't going to runaway. Having said that, I wish I was still holding all the UTX I bought on Monday....Bird in the hand and all that. Stay safe.

 


I am regretting taking profits on BKR and KMI, if it makes you feel any better.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Wow, market is resilient for the 3rd day in a row. Is it sucking in more retailers as nothing improved as far as the virus and the economy is concerned?

At least we are not having 1000+ point DOW swings and that is a blessing. Or, did I jinx it?

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@DrVenture wrote:

I am learning to be flexible. Yesterdays plan and the limit orders I placed are out the window. I am looking at future buys with a completely different perspective. Particularly in relation to how far down they are YTD, as opposed to last weeks lows. Total recalibration. Trying to figure out the risk of waiting vs going all in. Downside risk vs upside return. And upside return is winning in my mind at the moment.

 


Gutsy call, and could be very rewarding.   I'm still stuck on the whole quarantine timeline (will this be multiple months or just 1 month?) and how to justify a stronger rebound from here.  I don't see it happening. But I am often wrong about such things.  

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

The market is just loving that we injected  $2T of money into it - twice the size of the budget for the U.S. military. I am not a gold bug, but I'd say in a year or two, we will have an interesting test on how the velocity of money may tip us from deflation into an inflationary period. (the only reason I bought $10K worth of I-bonds yesterday in an LLC that I use for rental properties. Not normally where I make investments - but TreasuryDirect has a 10K cap per buyer in any single year, and I and my husband and an irrevocable trust had already made their annual purchase!) Of course, we've been waiting on inflation for a LONG time and it hasn't happened. But, you gotta' wonder about $2T.

$2T will likely keep the market happy for a bit, and this uptick is telling us (I believe) that investors already believe it will counterbalance unemployment surges, since those numbers were released today.  I guess we'll find out how well the market prices (or has priced) the hospital strain coming up on us. Atlanta, Detroit, and New Orleans announced today they are at (or just approaching) ICU capacity. I also saw a news special that rural hospitals are at risk of going bankrupt since they've had to defer elective procedures as they prepare for COVID-19 (takes  a bit of time to reconfigure their facilities). I realize that the market may have already discounted this, and the market is largely decoupled from the loss of human life (to a point). I'm in nearly all cash, no equities, so I erred on the side of being late to the party. But, I am still betting that retail investors will push stocks down during the re-adjustment period ahead particularly if the government doesn't get those checks out til May. (Retail investors are 52% of retirement assets, and 37% of equity owners. ) https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/who-owns-stocks-in-america/

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Wow, they hit S&P 500 right up to the trend line, which is around 2602 - 2606 - the power of trend lines!

image.png

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@CherylBoca wrote:

The market is just loving that we injected  $2T of money into it - twice the size of the budget for the U.S. military...

Plus unlimited FED support. Where are we now? Maybe 40% through the crisis? Cases peaking in 10 days? Perhaps, a bit optimistic. Just me, "wond'ring aloud", like Jethro Tull.

 

Lyrics: Wondering aloud How we feel today Last night sipped the sunset My hand in her hair We are our own saviours As we start both our hearts beating life I...
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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Why would this rally hold?  We are in or going into recession.  GDP will be negative in 2nd and 3rd quarters according to economists, possibly even slightly negative this quarter.  The national debt has taken a huge hit with this stimulus package and more will likely happen and the FED has used up almost all its dry powder to change anything.  "Up like a rocket"?  Not soon.

I am 100% cash.  If I was a gambler, I would try some day trading, but not actual investing at this point.  I got out at about 3% down YTD.  I have no idea when I'll get back in.   But all that counts to me is that it will be at lower prices than when I got out.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Well, we entered into a new bull market.....risk on?  

Gsbe

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Interesting.... Auto-rebalancing of balanced and target-date funds driving a lot of this

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-factors-may-be-driving-the-stock-markets-double-digit-ga...

 

So, that means things will go in waves. Sellers of securities will sell, and allocation funds rebalance thereafter, but won't rise as high up since they aren't 100% of the market (nor presumably as exuberent). So, when equity sellers sell again, the funds and etfs auto-rebalance again in due course. Hmmm.... makes short-term trading look a bit appealing if that pattern continues. Be curious to see the real numbers on what percent of trades were motivated by this reason.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@CherylBoca wrote:

Interesting.... Auto-rebalancing of balanced and target-date funds driving a lot of this

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-factors-may-be-driving-the-stock-markets-double-digit-ga...

 

So, that means things will go in waves. Sellers of securities will sell, and allocation funds rebalance thereafter, but won't rise as high up since they aren't 100% of the market (nor presumably as exuberent). So, when equity sellers sell again, the funds and etfs auto-rebalance again in due course. Hmmm.... makes short-term trading look a bit appealing if that pattern continues. Be curious to see the real numbers on what percent of trades were motivated by this reason.


I hope that the above takes place......need the action to keep the juices flowing!

Gabe

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Explorer ○○

Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

I bght BRK in early 90s easy to look up @ 33000 per shr ,it went to 70000, then folded to 60000 when I bailed , I listened to all the hype , brk went to 40k$ even @ the price today I've dun better.    TERRY

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@CherylBoca wrote:

Interesting.... Auto-rebalancing of balanced and target-date funds driving a lot of this

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-factors-may-be-driving-the-stock-markets-double-digit-ga...

So, that means things will go in waves. Sellers of securities will sell, and allocation funds rebalance thereafter, but won't rise as high up since they aren't 100% of the market (nor presumably as exuberent). So, when equity sellers sell again, the funds and etfs auto-rebalance again in due course. Hmmm.... makes short-term trading look a bit appealing if that pattern continues. Be curious to see the real numbers on what percent of trades were motivated by this reason.

I saw that article as well.  It makes sense to me. Maybe everything is milk and honey but I'm OK where I am. Participating (less) on the up days and 60% cash. We can't predict this market behavior but we can predict with some certainty Cheryl's triggers. Those, and when my cannabis guy no longer delivers, I'm going in. Stay healthy.

 

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@bilperk wrote:

Why would this rally hold?  We are in or going into recession.  GDP will be negative in 2nd and 3rd quarters according to economists, possibly even slightly negative this quarter.  The national debt has taken a huge hit with this stimulus package and more will likely happen and the FED has used up almost all its dry powder to change anything.  "Up like a rocket"?  Not soon.

I am 100% cash.  If I was a gambler, I would try some day trading, but not actual investing at this point.  I got out at about 3% down YTD.  I have no idea when I'll get back in.   But all that counts to me is that it will be at lower prices than when I got out.


It won't necessarily return quickly to pre-COVID19 highs, but it also was extremely oversold. Remember, we are facing an event-driven recession not a garden-variety business cycle downturn. IMO, a 1-2 quarter event-driven recession doesn't warrant a 35% global market pullback. I'd wager that in 1-2 years, anyone who didn't jump on this opportunity will be regretful (even if they don't say it).

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

So after a 3 day rally, the tide is turning and some Bears are turning Bullish, feeling remorseful over having missed a possible bottom.  Interesting how quickly we all switch sides. 

This thread started out very Bearish - before the recent rally.  Its like a psych experiment.  If you follow the markets day by day, it really can drive you crazy.   

Onward and upward!

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@jadster33 wrote:

So after a 3 day rally, the tide is turning and some Bears are turning Bullish, feeling remorseful over having missed a possible bottom.  Interesting how quickly we all switch sides. 

This thread started out very Bearish - before the recent rally.  Its like a psych experiment.  If you follow the markets day by day, it really can drive you crazy.   

Onward and upward!


This i a bear market rally......early futures are down a bit.  

Gabe

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