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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Market died at the end !  Too bad!.

Gabe

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@youth wrote:

Market died at the end !  Too bad!.


S&P 500 has strong support in the 1830 - 1870 range. I am guessing it goes there before the turn around as that will take at least couple of weeks to get there - about time the virus peaks too, IMHO!

Death cross already happened and looks all downhill... But who knows as this is a crazy market. Will it get there is anyone's guess?

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

I agree with FD that there are a lot of pessimistic folks on this and other threads.  Never read anything about Warren Buffett or John Templeton that said wait until the all clear signal Is given to invest.  Instead they advocated investing when there is maximum pessimism and when fear is at its highest.  They also understood that it isn’t important to hit the market bottom.  You just have to wade into the big boy pool.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@justice wrote:

After the day is over there's a whole lot of wrong statements on this board the last 2 days , mostly LIBS.


What are you talking about? What does the LIBS have to do with any of this rally or not?

More importantly, why do you bring politics into these investing forums, let alone insult a group of investors? I am a conservative but respect the other side for their opinions too. Peace!

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Well said, RainGator.  Let’s don’t drag this thread into the proverbial mud.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

        DJANGO -  I don’t mean to ignore the deaths worldwide, human suffering and economic loss. This is all out of my control. I do see many posters and the media seem to lean toward the belief that this is the end of mankind. I don’t see how curling up in a ball and sitting in a dark closet is a viable action plan. 
     
         I always choose to be proactive in these situations. Some should just sit it out for 6 months and turn off all devices and media. Outright panic may mean markets aren’t for you. I believe this to just a surprise change in market direction like some in the past and it can be worked to my advantage like any market.

          I have no idea when this will end, when the herd will return and what type of economic damage has been done. I do know that I keep trying to position my portfolio for an eventual recovery. Just trying to make lemonade out of ........

          

 

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

@steelpony10 

My last post to you wasn't well written. I didn't mean to imply that I'm hopeless but that those who are and can see no light at the tunnel are the ones hoarding. I sincerely hope Trump's  Easter msg. was trying to stem that and give us some hope, but who really knows, support him or not, the man has terrible communication skills.

I'm proceeding much like you. I have a few investment goals and think there is no better time to pursue them.

 

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

      DJANGO - I believe I understood what you meant. No problems here. I’am surprised how many posters stay completely panicked. The old fight or flight should have taken affect. You either fight back or turn everything off for 6 months because your out of your element. For sure you don’t stand immobile and keep taking a beating. Lol.

       My science guys ensure me this is going to last well into June. That’s how I interpret the facts also.
     
        We’ve lived in the boonies a great deal of our lives. Our pattern is to go to the city about twice per week for groceries. Not a big problem so far. Even Lowes sells TP for $1.19? a roll. Good luck.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

My thought is that to be fully diversified one should have alternative investments as part of your portfolio.  Perhaps about 15% in order to support one's stock and bond investments.  Obviously risk management is very important.

Commercial real estate.....brick and mortar is my favorite. I do not favor REITS.....just my choice.

Gabe

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

I don't know what's going on, but apparently from the market pricing, it seems this so called "recession / depression" is no where near the hurt we were feeling back in December 2018. I mean December 2018 we were at 2350 S&P, and today we are at 2475. Apparently, all these travel & business closings doesn't even rate to the misery from December 2018. Time to buy big! Just my thoughts.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

I think there are multiple aspects to this situation, hence what may appear to be opposing views may actually be mutually inclusive. From a health crisis perspective this is far from over. The economy does need to be re-opened at some point. Just not too soon. The market may well have already priced in the reality last week. We may have another serious dip, or as some may prefer to view it - buying opportunity. Without pessimists, there can be no buying opportunities. Still, for those practically trapped in big cities this can seem much more real than those sitting on a farm in rural America right now.

Is there some reason this all cannot be true?

When life gives you lemons, partner up with someone that life gave vodka to. Then offer some to someone who is without either maybe?

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@Heim wrote:

I don't know what's going on, but apparently from the market pricing, it seems this so called "recession / depression" is no where near the hurt we were feeling back in December 2018. I mean December 2018 we were at 2350 S&P, and today we are at 2475. Apparently, all these travel & business closings doesn't even rate to the misery from December 2018. Time to buy big! Just my thoughts.


This has occurred to me as well. Does it imply that we need to go much further down, or that the underlying economy is strong and a lot of re-pricing has taken place since Dec 2018? I agree with your conclusion, but remain cautious.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

"Folks earning more than $99,000 adjusted (2018) which probably includes most on this board will get zilch."

Married couples filing jointly earning less than $150K will receive $2400 with that payment tapering down to zero at $200K.

Explorer ○

Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@DrVenture wrote:

@Heim wrote:

I don't know what's going on, but apparently from the market pricing, it seems this so called "recession / depression" is no where near the hurt we were feeling back in December 2018. I mean December 2018 we were at 2350 S&P, and today we are at 2475. Apparently, all these travel & business closings doesn't even rate to the misery from December 2018. Time to buy big! Just my thoughts.


This has occurred to me as well. Does it imply that we need to go much further down, or that the underlying economy is strong and a lot of re-pricing has taken place since Dec 2018? I agree with your conclusion, but remain cautious.


I think the problem is the conventional wisdom is the economy can just reset back to where it was and these people are still net bullish on the market, and they think the market will just be back to normal after one quarter. They don't think there is going to be a global slowdown that drags on. They don't even consider this whole event is traumatic on the population and they might not just run out and travel and spend for 18 months+ until this virus is completely vaccinated, and even then they might be paranoid about the next pandemic around the corner for another year.

I also think there is a political risk. Like how when Trump was elected it was a signal for some businessmen and Republicans to feel comfortable investing money in the economy cause their team won, I think many Democrats hate Trump so much that they won't spend a dime on the economy until after the election to get rid of him.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@Heim wrote:

@DrVenture wrote:

@Heim wrote:

I don't know what's going on, but apparently from the market pricing, it seems this so called "recession / depression" is no where near the hurt we were feeling back in December 2018. I mean December 2018 we were at 2350 S&P, and today we are at 2475. Apparently, all these travel & business closings doesn't even rate to the misery from December 2018. Time to buy big! Just my thoughts.


This has occurred to me as well. Does it imply that we need to go much further down, or that the underlying economy is strong and a lot of re-pricing has taken place since Dec 2018? I agree with your conclusion, but remain cautious.


I think the problem is the conventional wisdom is the economy can just reset back to where it was and these people are still net bullish on the market, and they think the market will just be back to normal after one quarter. They don't think there is going to be a global slowdown that drags on. They don't even consider this whole event is traumatic on the population and they might not just run out and travel and spend for 18 months+ until this virus is completely vaccinated, and even then they might be paranoid about the next pandemic around the corner for another year.

 


Agreed. There may be some pent up demand to counteract this and a big shift in buying habits too, I would presume. My thinking is it takes a long time to get back to previous highs (2 years?) and a big rotation in who the big winners and loser are. So I am selective in buying, not so much mutual funds. But, a move up 10-15% from here in 1-2 months is not out of the realm of possibility, after maybe another test of the lows.

I wouldn't count on airlines or cruise lines doing so well. Maybe a slow down in the migration to crowded city centers. Your point about Trump and discretionary spending is probably spot on. In any case expect big ticket items, like automobiles to languish for a while. Lots of rebates and 0% financing.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

My feeling is that we were pumped up by Govt action and have worked that off.  I don't think anything is particularly cheap.  I think the stimulus will reinflate the market short term, but reality has to set in at some point.   That could be years away, however.  Resolving the virus scare anytime soon could bring us a long way back toward where we were, but our economy has taken some damage and that should moderate expectations.  For financial health's sake, we should retest and hold; then find a vaccine.  Sell the news?

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

I agree, stimulus package, short term gains; coronavirus treatment progress, more sustained gains. Any good news on managing the virus will be good for the market. Government aid will have a Band-Aid effect.

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Positive numbers at open today suggest to me that the dismal unemployment numbers are well priced in. This I take as a good sign!

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?

Raingater  You're late, I was not the one that brought politics into this, I was responding to SARATOGA who posted on  3/24 Bad mouthing my PRESIDENT  I will stick up for him.    TERRY

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Re: Who believes DOW's 2,112.98 rally today will hold?


@DrVenture wrote:

Positive numbers at open today suggest to me that the dismal unemployment numbers are well priced in. This I take as a good sign!


It feels like "any information is good information".  It doesn't matter how bad the report numbers are - it's more important that we are getting some clarity.  Interesting times.

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