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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now

 

Um --  That's only partially true, dt.

Sure, I might post I bought a thousand shares of AAPL today on May 1.     Maybe I did, maybe I didn't.    Maybe I bought only a hundred shares.  Maybe only two.     But having posted buying 1000, I certainly can't claim a month later that I was shorting the market on May 1, in anticipation of a crash. 

 If you're not inclined to post your trades in real time, then don't.   Don't read the posts either.   I'm cool with that.     But if you don't post trades in real time, some of us are going to be jaundiced when you tell us next month all the brilliant moves you made.

 B/S/W posters can lie about what they did today, but they can't later contradict their earlier declarations.

Non-B/S/W posters, OTOH, can lie today AND lie next month to make themselves look successful.

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now

Please stay within the OP.

In the last 3 days, the VIX started to go up from around 31 to 37. If it goes over 40 it's a warning sign. Q2 started with -2.6% loss, we will find out soon if the next leg down started. Some of the good news is behind us. Huge fiscal and monetary support. The coronavirus cases are going down. Earnings are not as bad because the first 2 months of Q1 were normal.

But, Q2 started with 30 million unemployed, a bad economy, and bad earnings. How long can the stock market disregard it?

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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now


@FD1001 wrote:

Q2 started with -2.6% loss, we will find out soon if the next leg down started. Some of the good news is behind us. Huge fiscal and monetary support. The coronavirus cases are going down. Earnings are not as bad because the first 2 months of Q1 were normal.

But, Q2 started with 30 million unemployed, a bad economy, and bad earnings. How long can the stock market disregard it?


 

Well said, @FD1001.

That's why I am not only staying away from equities, but also from bond OEFs with significant exposure to corporate bonds, including highly rated ones. I will patiently await the second and/or third quarter earnings results before making any major investment decisions.

By the way, The NYT reported the other day that Fed Chairman Powell "said second-quarter economic data would be “worse” than anything previously seen. In their post-meeting release, Fed officials flagged “considerable risks to the economic outlook” over the medium term, suggesting central bank officials did not anticipate growth to bounce back quickly in the “V-shaped” recovery that President Trump and some other administration officials still seemed to expect."

Good luck,

Fred

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Participant ○

Re: What to do now

Dear Richardsok (aka Sherlock) 

Everything  I do is  well documented as I do it . Simple search would show that. I sense your investment skills are as good as your research skills (good luck with your natural gas investment lol) and  yes my move to cash was documented in real time as it was happening in Buy-Sell-Why March (see below) on March 2. I give updates as anything changes. My moves tend to be simple (a few funds not many) Which make easy to report on. 

 

Sortatino2
Sortatino2
Participant ○
Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I have been 100% in NHMRX and IOFIX across all accounts. On Thursday I sold 1/3 of NHMRX. On Friday I tried to sell my remaining NHMRX but I exceeded the notify on IB and it was not executed. Today at close I will be 90% + in Cash. I believe today was dead cat bounce. I believe Corona has spread alot more than anyone is acknowledging and it will come to light in many places in the next 1 week. Fed rate cuts will do nothing to cure demand and fed appears to be far behind on market expectations. Ensuing economic impact will be devastating (like China data over the weekend)  but temporary until spread slows in summer (assuming it behaves like flu). Junky and unrated stuff held in NHMRX and IOFIX could get pounded which is why I am getting out now. I have done great with them this year - happy to get out and take the gains. Will wait for bear market correction before dipping back into the water with focus on equities as opposed to bond OEF. AKRIX/EILGX will be targets for new positions as they are by far best risk return equity funds. May consider beaten down PCI/PDI too. 

S2 (aka Sparky) 
 
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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now

In general, many seem to have a clear vision of what lies ahead (sometimes supported by their super-smart timing).

In reality with no exceptions, the market is never easy to understand and nobody can predict the market all the time.  

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Participant ○○○

Re: What to do now


@Sortatino2 wrote:

Dear Richardsok (aka Sherlock) 

Everything  I do is  well documented as I do it . Simple search would show that. I sense your investment skills are as good as your research skills (good luck with your natural gas investment lol) and  yes my move to cash was documented in real time as it was happening in Buy-Sell-Why March (see below) on March 2. I give updates as anything changes. My moves tend to be simple (a few funds not many) Which make easy to report on. 

 

Sortatino2
Sortatino2
Participant ○
Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I have been 100% in NHMRX and IOFIX across all accounts. On Thursday I sold 1/3 of NHMRX. On Friday I tried to sell my remaining NHMRX but I exceeded the notify on IB and it was not executed. Today at close I will be 90% + in Cash. I believe today was dead cat bounce. I believe Corona has spread alot more than anyone is acknowledging and it will come to light in many places in the next 1 week. Fed rate cuts will do nothing to cure demand and fed appears to be far behind on market expectations. Ensuing economic impact will be devastating (like China data over the weekend)  but temporary until spread slows in summer (assuming it behaves like flu). Junky and unrated stuff held in NHMRX and IOFIX could get pounded which is why I am getting out now. I have done great with them this year - happy to get out and take the gains. Will wait for bear market correction before dipping back into the water with focus on equities as opposed to bond OEF. AKRIX/EILGX will be targets for new positions as they are by far best risk return equity funds. May consider beaten down PCI/PDI too. 

S2 (aka Sparky) 
 

Yes, I remember you getting out of IOFIX when you did.  I on the other hand bailed out pretty late in the game.

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Re: What to do now

 

 

Sparky ----

     Seems I have now twice cast erroneous doubts on a poster's claims when the poster had already reported his trade in real time.  Sloppy of me?   Or stupid?   You decide.    I herewith resign my self-appointed job as Supreme Guardian of Righteous Posting Truth & Virtue and retire into chastened anonymity.

    Regrets.

--r

 

 

 

 

 

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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now

Sparky --

Four little items:

1)  Lest my post above appear sarcastic, I really do regret questioning you unjustly.   Apologies. Won't occur again.

2)   I've never made a secret of my security analysis skills.  I suck at it.  I don't attempt to use it.  So there.

3)    Before you give me the ol' "LOL" about natural gas, you might check my reporting history (and the mid-Mar-to-early May chart) to note I first bought ET on about 3/12, more the day after, added more two days after that, then again on around 4/2 and added more about 4/5.    I exited the entire whopping position at 5.78 then bought it all back again the same day for 5.62 .     I've exited half my position today at just under 8.00 and will get a boffo ex-div on the rest on Wednesday.   It is shaping up as my trade of the year and is due entirely to technicals -- and I'm not even counting NRGX which has a similar chart trajectory.   I've done a lot of things that are "LOL worthy", Sparky,  but not this natural gas trade.     People have posted that any chart move leads only to a 50/50 craps shoot to the next chart move.   Yes that's frequently true -- but not always.   Some chart technicals give you a real edge -- and it's that edge I try to find and trade on.

    I'll discuss it further if anyone is curious -- but I've already written extensively and don't want to be the banging drum that no one wants to hear.

4)  Lastly -- and most important --   I really think you should thank me for laying "Sparky" on you.  Suits you way better than that impossible-to-remember road kill handle you gave yourself.   No-no.   No gifts necessary.    You're entirely welcome, I'm sure.

      

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now


@51hh wrote:

In general, many seem to have a clear vision of what lies ahead (sometimes supported by their super-smart timing).

In reality with no exceptions, the market is never easy to understand and nobody can predict the market all the time.  


I just play the ST with stocks when my TA signal great to time to trade.  I play the long game with bond OEFs. And the most important is to meet my goals.  I don't care if SPY will make 12% annually and I will make just 6%.

T/A just makes it easier for me to trade, it's just a mechanical system but I also think Wall St algos follow these "stupid" patterns. Why 200 days MA(moving average) is used more than 256 days MA?

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Participant ○

Re: What to do now

Richard 

The fact that you are admittedly not familiar with Sortino says it all. 

S2

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Participant ○

Re: What to do now

Update on my approach . In addition to buying Wellesley daily in each of my accounts, as reported previously, through automatic investments at Vanguard, I have started each Friday also buying AKREX. These purchases will get me from starting with all cash to a 50/50 portfolio in 1 year. Will speed it up if market tanks. This is my glide path into retirement in 1 year . I want a KISS portfolio that will require little fiddling . 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now


@FD1001 wrote:

@

 


 

 

T/A just makes it easier for me to trade, it's just a mechanical system but I also think Wall St algos follow these "stupid" patterns. Why 200 days MA(moving average) is used more than 256 days MA?


Long ago, there was a scholar-type study that did an in-depth review of using moving averages.  The author  concluded two things:  Moving averages do work...and, that his iterative computer analysis showed that 209 days was the optimal.

I submit this was rounded to 200, for ease of application and construct.  One of the early no-load mutual fund reports used 200 dayMAs...and it was useful.

Of course, going way back, one had to do MAs manually, on the backs of envelopes, for each fund.  But that's like saying we walked 3 miles in snow to get to school!

Bonus day: For those not familiar with using Moving Averages, and successful investing, here is a video showing historical returns: (I am not the Floridian, KDenniger, presenting the video)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN9WUIXaRr4

Enjoy...

R48

 

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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now

@Sortatino2 (approach): Certainly quite rational to me; not selling exactly at the top; not buying exactly at the bottom, either.:)

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Explorer ○○○

Re: What to do now

Can you do automatic investment at Vanguard for non-Vanguard fund like Akrex?

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Explorer ○○○

Re: What to do now

I am  very late to this thread. Yogi put me onto your Thread when I asked some questions on a large IOFIX holding in another thread. I also own PIMIX and lesser amounts pf SEMMX.

The recovery chart you provide on PIMIX for 2008 era, does it include reinvested dividends at lower prices?


@FD1001 wrote:

Sortatino2,

About 1-2 weeks ago I commented on the Muni market and why it's not worth the risk/reward.  If you look at one month chart of VMMXX vs VMSXX (chart), you made 0.1% extra, it's not worth for me the risk my money for such a small number.

Most of the charists/T/A are looking at around SP500=2700 for a ceiling and going down, this has nothing to do with death count numbers.

The Fed have been throwing a lot of money, but, unemployment and earnings are terrible already, sure, they will get better but even 6 months from now they will still be terrible.  Maybe all the traders will disregard everything and start buying anyway.

I don't see why I need to rush and buy anything when I don't see even the SP500 price cutting the 100-200 days MA which is at least at 3000+ (chart).  In a normal market, I would buy when MACD was in a big negative and turned positive but in this black swan, I only dare hourly trading.

For bonds, I need to see a lot more stabilization where rates don't rise + a clear trend and if I had to buy something it would be VFIIX which will not do much anyway.

Look how long it took PIMIX to recover, more than a year with a fake rally in the middle 11/2008 then lose and only after that to recover.  Actually, PIMIX lost about 13% in 2008 from peak to trough and in 2020 about the same, so maybe it's a good time to buy but I'm waiting.

pimix.PNG

If I have to guess, I think the rebound may be quicker because the Fed money + the economy was better before.


 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now

Yes. Stockchart includes the distributions. 

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Explorer ○○○

Re: What to do now


@yogibearbull wrote:

If you bought some things in the March selloff, consider putting trailing-stops on some trading positions. Some like to put wide trailing-stops of 7-10% but I prefer tighter 2-3% trailing stops if at all. It has been quite an up move from March 23 low. This will let you ride the up-wave but protect trades if the market falters. FWIW, I am never totally in or out but do make trades around positions.   https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p82377272754


Yogi, thank you for suggesting this OP's threads on bonds that lead me a bit late to this "what to do now" thread. I see that you mention using trailing-stops (TS) and, yes, I do recall our previous discussions of these orders and your warnings about the market orders that do result. I admit that I have in my short experience with them been surprised a few times by TS orders. No serious problems resulted but it lead me to see if I could avoid the "automatic" market sell aspect of these orders.

 First, I want to emphasize that I am NOT a trader NOR am I at all into asset allocation or buy-and-hold. I am retired and I do have a number of substantial investment portfolios of mine and the family.

I previously noted that I have implemented spreadsheet algorithms based on TS strategy that ignores the normal market orders that result but it does put one into a manual trading state. While struggling with reasonable sell strategy stops and CEF research, I got caught with my proverbial "shorts down" when the current virus recession happened so I never exercised the manual sells implied by my app. So here I am with a big bunch of ETF's, CEF's and bond ETF's (IOFIX, SEMMX, PIMIX) with serious loses that should have been side-stepped using my tool with appropriate stops. I do NOT ever want this to happen again.

This thread has mentioned doing BIG recent sells by FD and R48. I was wondering if this team, including you, could express opinions on using TS strategies and what stop percentages might be used in their investment sell strategies. I have read here about 8-20% down. I have been gut-feeling thinking about 8% since 10% is a down market but I am trying to refine this based on data..

I use CEF's for 3 purposes: to generate a very modest amount in a taxable account for living expenses and at much more serious levels to generate cashflow for investments in a portfolio of a limited number of low volatility stock ETF's and T.  Rowe Price MF's and also in an IRA where RMD's are used for living expenses and IRA ->  large Roth conversions (thank you recent tax law changes).  For CEF's, research has me thinking that 5% down is routine but at 10% one has to watch for potential SERIOUS drawdowns. I am still researching this using drawdown data from Portfolio Visualizer.

Your comments and suggestions are appreciated.

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Explorer ○○○

Re: What to do now


@retiredat48 wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@

 


 

 

T/A just makes it easier for me to trade, it's just a mechanical system but I also think Wall St algos follow these "stupid" patterns. Why 200 days MA(moving average) is used more than 256 days MA?


Long ago, there was a scholar-type study that did an in-depth review of using moving averages.  The author  concluded two things:  Moving averages do work...and, that his iterative computer analysis showed that 209 days was the optimal.

I submit this was rounded to 200, for ease of application and construct.  One of the early no-load mutual fund reports used 200 day MAs...and it was useful.

Of course, going way back, one had to do MAs manually, on the backs of envelopes, for each fund.  But that's like saying we walked 3 miles in snow to get to school!

Bonus day: For those not familiar with using Moving Averages, and successful investing, here is a video showing historical returns: (I am not the Floridian, KDenniger, presenting the video)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN9WUIXaRr4

Enjoy...

R48

 


Maybe some of you remember the MF days when telephone switch funds were created (1970's???). And then there was Dick Fabian with the Fabian Telephone Switch Fund Newsletter. He based his strategy on the 200 day MA!!! Heard him talk once. I followed and paid for his newsletters for years. His tapes and recommended books were like fireside chats. Bought his newsletter for decades! Loved the guy.

I even bought into the guy who left that newsletter to be an investment advisor based on Fabian's MA strategy. Took me something like the 1990's to fairly recently to write off the loses in all of our accounts that we entrusted to him.

I believe that computers and quant's killed their MA approach. But his kid who took over the newsletter introduced me to "ETF's".   :-((( 

PS: Then do you remember the Friday night PBS Louis Rukeyser investment evening investment show? In my investment infancy I just LOVED Lou!!!! 

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Re: What to do now

Yup, I remember the Friday night "Wall Street Week" with Louis Rukeyser.  I was a young airman stationed in Northern California in the early 1980's, and just getting into investing.  It was a Friday night ritual to watch Rukeyser's show.  And I had also discovered The Nightly Business Report, a 30 minute show on PBS every evening, Monday through Friday.  Loved the two anchors, Suzy Gehrib and the late Paul Kangas (and his sign-off, 'wishing you the best of good buys'.  And then that new national newspaper, USA Today, with a whole section devoted to business and investing!  And Money magazine had already been out for a few years.  A veritable plethora of investing information!  How could it possibly get any better?  Ah yes, those were the days, my friend...

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Explorer ○○

Re: What to do now


@judger wrote:

So here I am with a big bunch of ETF's, CEF's and bond ETF's (IOFIX, SEMMX, PIMIX) with serious loses 
Warning. Following the advice espoused on this forum could be dangerous to your portfolio health.

 

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