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Participant ○○○

Re: What to do now


@Sortatino2 wrote:

I have opened an account at Ally Banking and Ally Invest . Ally Savings pays 1.5% on balances and Ally Invest has the best promotion available paying up to a 3500 incentive for new money coming in . Also Mutual Fund Trades are only 9.95 and the reps have waived that for me when I asked. They have access to all my favorite funds in institutional class too . 


What kind of institutional funds are available at Ally Invest? Can you please name a few in your list? 

Do they have NHMRX, GHYIX, PHMIX? What about Vanguard funds?  I am curious. 

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Participant ○

Re: What to do now

I tested each and also OMFYX ( optax Instl) and ORNYX (Ornax instl) and they all work . You can buy Vanguard products too. 

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Participant ○○○

Re: What to do now


@Sortatino2 wrote:

I tested each and also OMFYX ( optax Instl) and ORNYX (Ornax instl) and they all work . You can buy Vanguard products too. 


Thank you and appreciate the info. So, each time you add new money into the fund, you pay $9.95?

Also, how is their website navigation? I tried Interactive Brokers and hated it with a passion. TD, Fidelity, and Schwab are great compared to IB. :)

Btw, the purchase tab doesn't list Ally.  Maybe, M* data is stale?

http://financials.morningstar.com/fund/purchase-info.html?t=phmix&region=usa&culture=en-US

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Participant ○

Re: What to do now

Ally Bank bought Trade King which has now become Ally Invest so you could check that . I also don’t find the data accurate on where to buy things On Morningstar. 

IB is the worst on user interface but okay when you get used to it. I use the trader workstation which is okay. Ally is good but only downside for some may be you have to call in for orders over 250K and sales of 1M . Also mobile app does not do mutual fund orders you have to go to Mobile website. I moved to IB for institutional fund  access , low Mutual Fund Trade fee of 14.95, and access to supper low margin rates . Ally is becoming my go to now for lower mutual fund transaction fees at 9.95 and better access to institutional funds . You pay 9.95 for each purchase or sale. I have asked and they have waived fees when I have done bigger transactions. I have a case in for them to waive all fees which I am awaiting an answer in from supervisor. I think FD said he had something like that at Schwab. IB is deceptive on what mutual funds they say you have access to (on product page ) and in reality you end up not being able to buy . However I will keep money there for access to margin rates . I am moving in to retirement in next year . Moving to Philippines. Close to Chang . Plan to use 1 percent margin rates to buy retirement properties in Philippines instead of cash . Pretty sure I can beat 1% returns. 

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Participant ○○

Re: What to do now


@FD1001 wrote:

Sortatino2,

About 1-2 weeks ago I commented on the Muni market and why it's not worth the risk/reward.  If you look at one month chart of VMMXX vs VMSXX (chart), you made 0.1% extra, it's not worth for me the risk my money for such a small number.

 

FD,

I am a bit confused.

Regarding the risk, last week you posted:

In fact, Muni MM and prime MM can have the following: "The fund may impose a fee upon sale of your shares or may temporarily suspend your ability to sell shares if the fund's liquidity falls below required minimums because of market conditions or other factors."

Since both Prime and Municipal Money Market Funds are subject to potential 2% redemption fee and/or 10-day gate(s), in your example, what makes Municipal Money Market not worth the risk compared to Prime Money Market?

In so far as the reward, isn't the after tax greater than 0.1%? Assuming one has a significant amount of cash. Isn't the difference greater than 0.1% if Prime Money Market puts you in a higher tax bracket? As I best recall, Gatorbyter posted volumes on this concept.

Hootz

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now

You can find several good points written by AGC (link)

Flatten the curve is not just a motto and is similar to WWII slogans like "We Can Do It!" If we see the lines start to curve and the exponential growth slow materially, it would be a turning point.

=============

We want to see oil break above $30 with a clear trend higher.

===========

The four key BOND ETFs I am watching throughout the day are:

  • iShares IBoxx Investment Grade (LQD)
  • iShares High Yield ETF (HYG)
  • iShares MBS ETF (MBB)
  • iShares Muni Bond ETF (MUB)

We look at the intraday indicative NAV for an indication what NAVs will generally be doing in that sub-sector. This can be helpful when looking at closed-end funds real-time discounts. For example, if a muni fund is down 5%, we can assess what muni NAVs would likely be doing that evening for a more accurate assessment of the discount.

What we want to see here is relative calm in these markets. That would be exemplified by not only smaller relative moves in the day (even if it is down) but also the ETFs trading much closer to their NAVs.

=============

The VIX remains elevated but is starting to come down. The next key level is 40 and then 20. The VIX hit record highs last week and has started to see some small instances of calm inch into the markets. But we are a long way from 'in the clear'. We want to see this indicator fall below 40 in the near term and then in the next few weeks to 20.

At 20, the market would be telling us that the worst is behind us. I would warn investors that when we get to 20 the market will likely have already bottomed and started to zoom higher. It should not be an objective to hit the absolute nadir in the market but avoid most of the losses while not missing the big up days.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now

Looking at the charts.

QQQ signaled a buy based on the MACD at the end of March.  QQQ passed the 200 days MA in the second week of April, then passed the 50 days MA, then test the 50 days MA again and now is up and running with a clear buy.

qqq.PNG

The SP500 is still struggling, The MACD signaled a buy at the end of March, the price passed the 50 days MA twice but still is not above the 200 days MA.

spx.PNG

It's not a secret that unemployment will hit at least 15-20% and the economy right now is in bad shape but the stock market is looking 6-12 months ahead. The assumption is that most states will open their businesses in the next 1-3 months and the economy will get better. It would still take 1-2 years to get to normal.  The fiscal and monetary policies were a success so far. If the Coronavirus will come back it's going to be ugly.

The SP500 and QQQ are capitalization-weighted indexes.  This means that the biggest companies matter much more than the smaller ones. There are many companies in bad shape but several of the top ones are doing just fine and why the indexes are doing better. QQQ is mostly high tech where you see it even more.

The healthcare(XLV) sector is doing great too and the (chart) looks better than QQQ or XLK.

Is the above a guarantee? of course not.  I'm skeptical like many of you but the charts are based on actual prices that traders were willing to pay.

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Contributor ○

Re: What to do now

What to do now?  I have absolutely no idea.  None.

I retired for the third time just over a year ago.  After my military career I often worked two jobs, accounting by day and part-time teaching at night). I maximized investment into my 401k and when I retired from accounting I rolled it over into a Traditional IRA.  I only stopped teaching a little over a year ago.  For my 401k I used the dollar cost averaging approach to investing.  I invested in mutual funds with an 80-85% stock position.

As I got closer to withdrawals I pared back the stock portion and focused on moderate-allocation funds.  My traditional IRA is now around 65% stock.  My wife's (who is younger than me) is still around 80-85%.

I read about the various withdrawal strategies (the 4% distribution rule, percent of portfolio method, and bucket approach). Should it be needed I really liked the "4% distribution rule" for withdrawals from our taxable accounts because it is simple to implement and it will provide my wife a stable income when I'm gone. Moderate-allocation funds seem to fit that strategy well, until now.

I am required to take MRDs that we don't need. Still thinking about dollar cost averaging, I set up monthly withdrawals and reinvested them in Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund to bring down the stock portion of our taxable investment even further. Between it and Vanguard Wellington we should eventually get closer to a 50/50 mix which is still within the range recommended by Bengen and the Trinity authors. And Wellesley will give her the choice of not withdrawing from Wellington in a down market.

I stopped doing that when all of this happened and I'm now sitting on cash.  We didn't sell anything.  We are just not making any new investments.  I have no idea when to jump back in.  And I'm confined to quarters with nothing else to do but think about it.

As for the health sector, I'm not sure hospitals are a good investment right now.  New York City aside most of them are going broke because of the shut down.  The rooms and hallways are mostly vacant.  As more and more states open their economies and start allowing elective surgery again they may come out of it but it isn't going to be a good year.

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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now

Most of us are in the same situation (except those smart people who jump out and in at lightning speed).  Doing nothing with one's retirement portfolio is probably the prudent thing to do; as long as one has a good planning in asset allocation and risk reduction.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now

I just sold my QQQ around 10 AM this morning which is the one I said in my original post (idea1) I would buy.  I bought it 1-2 days after it crossed 200 days MA. There was no need to wait for the 100 days MA.

This is exactly what I like to do, join the rally and get out.  I just used 10% of my money for that. Yes, I'm a trader, nothing new here but protecting my portfolio at all cost at retirement is the key for me...and back to all bond OEFs

qqq.PNG

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Participant ○

Re: What to do now


@51hh wrote:

Most of us are in the same situation (except those smart people who jump out and in at lightning speed).  Doing nothing with one's retirement portfolio is probably the prudent thing to do; as long as one has a good planning in asset allocation and risk reduction.  


Agree wholeheartedly.  With a long-term asset allocation (rebalanced/adjusted occsionally) I weathered the 2008 storm.  My "strategy" was simply not to open any retirement statements for a year.  Now I'm getting statements electronically, so my strategy has changed: I'm not looking at my statements online.  Bogle's Rule 1: "Don't do something: just stand there."

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Explorer ○

Re: What to do now

FD:  What is it about the chart that made you sell QQQ?  I understand the buy but not the sell.

Thanks, Gina

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now


@gina123 wrote:

FD:  What is it about the chart that made you sell QQQ?  I understand the buy but not the sell.

Thanks, Gina

 

 


The chart looks good but as a conservative retiree who trades I like to join an upside in the middle and leave at some point. I'm not looking to stay for the long term in riskier assets. That isn't a good idea for most, just stay the course and/or tweak your portfolio if you like.

More specifically, if you look at the QQQ chart for 3 years, every time the price is about 10% from 200 days MA it usually starts going down.

qqq 10%.PNG

Yesterday was a great day for all indexes and the QQQ was nicely up after hours but then today QQQ was barely up and the SPY+IWM+DIA were all down...it was time for me to sell.

The market may go higher but I'm patient, maybe I will wait months now for a down market and the turnaround and if it goes higher then I missed it.

We also got a huge fiscal and monetary support. The SP500 went down about 34% and came back 25+% and all that happened within just over 2 months. That was a V recovery but not a full one since it's still about 13% from the top.

Earnings weren't as bad for Q1 because the first 2 months were pretty good without the virus effect but Q2 will be a very bad one.  Unemployment at 30 million is already in the 15-20% range.  So maybe today was a great day to sell before the next leg down.

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Explorer ○

Re: What to do now

Thanks FD.  Great explanation.

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Participant ○

Re: What to do now

Update on my approach . I have been cash since the market peak earlier in the year. I rode IOFIX and NHMRX to the top this year and fortunately got out at the first hint of downturn. I am a year or so away from retirement. The sale of my company got postponed with COVID. As of a week or so back I have set up daily purchases of Wellesley in all of my accounts with full investment achieved in 18 months. I will accelerate as market dives. I have been baffled by this market so I have taken emotion out and have simplified to just Wellesley and put everything on daily autopilot. 

As an additional component of this strategy I have moved all free cash to Ally Bank Savings Account which pays 1.5%. I draw for my daily investments in my Individual Taxable Accounts from this . Cash for Before Tax Accounts sits in Clearing Account (Vanguard Federal Money Markets) at Vanguard paying only about 0.5%. What allows the Ally Bank Savings Account approach to happen is that the Fed just eliminated the maximum of 6 withdrawals from Savings Accounts. Using the new rule to my advantage.

I am sleeping well with this approach but as always everything is subject to change. I was over the last year sold on the Multi Sector Bond Approach to things but the trust has been eroded with junkier MBS Funds such as IOFIX, SEMMX, BDKNX, etc . Still think there is value in the more diversified Multi Sector of JMUIX, JMSIX, and perhaps even PIMIX. Still hold a few odds and ends in these. I think they have learned from this experience and will be better funds going forward. I will likely be investing some more  in these 3 going forward. Historically love the high risk/return of High Yield Muni but right now I still dont trust them. Will get back in at some point. 

Other Funds other than High Yield Muni (NHMRX, OPTAX, ORNAX) and Multi Sector (JMUIX, JMSIX, PIMIX) I will consider are other consistently top of the list risk reward funds as follows. Literally nothing else is on my list. I prioritize and only invest to maximize risk and return. The list is short and these are at the top of the list in most every time period:

Balanced (JBALX, VLAIX)

Stock (AKRIX, BIOPX, EILGX)

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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now

 

"Update on my approach . I have been cash since the market peak earlier in the year. I rode IOFIX and NHMRX to the top this year and fortunately got out at the first hint of downturn."

 

And here's yet ANOTHER "I sold out at the very tippy-top" claim.

Really and for true, Sparky?

Did he record this big brilliant sale on the Buy-Sell-Why thread?

Do you need to ask?

 

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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now


@richardsok wrote:

 

"Update on my approach . I have been cash since the market peak earlier in the year. I rode IOFIX and NHMRX to the top this year and fortunately got out at the first hint of downturn."

 

And here's yet ANOTHER "I sold out at the very tippy-top" claim.

Really and for true, Sparky?

Did he record this big brilliant sale on the Buy-Sell-Why thread?

Do you need to ask?

 

Being agile and lucky is the key.  I could be agile but always on the unlucky side:D

 


 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now


@richardsok wrote:

 

"Update on my approach . I have been cash since the market peak earlier in the year. I rode IOFIX and NHMRX to the top this year and fortunately got out at the first hint of downturn."

 

And here's yet ANOTHER "I sold out at the very tippy-top" claim.

Really and for true, Sparky?

Did he record this big brilliant sale on the Buy-Sell-Why thread?

Do you need to ask?

 


Buy-Sell-Why is just another thread, I didn't know I must post there my sells, after all, it's your thread, not mine.

Most of my sales since 2/28 are posted in Sold most of my portfolio to cash.  Let's see if you will acknowledge it :-)

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Contributor ○○

Re: What to do now

FD:

Your post of Feb 28 has been read and noted.   Thank you.

You're correct, of course.  No one is required to report big, important transactions on B/S/W.   However, it would be an enormous help -- and greatly discourage phonies -- if everyone did.

Stay safe out there.

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What to do now


@richardsok wrote:

FD:

Your post of Feb 28 has been read and noted.   Thank you.

You're correct, of course.  No one is required to report big, important transactions on B/S/W.   However, it would be an enormous help -- and greatly discourage phonies -- if everyone did.

Stay safe out there.

 


There is nothing magical about the B/S/W thread to "greatly discourage phonies".  It is just a thread where some posters, for some reasons, choose to post what they are doing--you can believe them or not on that thread, just like you believe them or not on other threads.  

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