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Frequent Contributor

Turbulence ahead?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-reasons-the-stock-market-may-face-a-severe-bout-of-turbulence-ne....

The 4th of July weekend will not be a time I'll be holding some of my more risky stocks if the next few days indicate more market losses.

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29 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: Turbulence ahead?

Don't count on a Summer Rally this year (I guess), from a Barron's article by Mark Hurbert (on 5/27).

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Re: Turbulence ahead?


@51hh wrote:

Don't count on a Summer Rally this year (I guess), from a Barron's article by Mark Hurbert (on 5/27).


My bet is on the continued growth of FAANGM and other recovery stocks.

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Participant ○○

Re: Turbulence ahead?

What are your other recovery stocks to bet on?

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Re: Turbulence ahead?


@Sheryldell wrote:

What are your other recovery stocks to bet on?


TSLA

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Turbulence ahead?

I'm not counting on any stocks to lead the way until Covid19 is controlled and our economy can see solid evidence of a recovery. I hold a few individual stocks, but most of my holdings are either MFs or ETFs.  Until I see indicators of a recovery I don't intend to add to my investments. Dow 30k is wishful at this point...…………….maybe tomorrow, but not today.

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Re: Turbulence ahead?


@Intruder wrote:

@51hh wrote:

Don't count on a Summer Rally this year (I guess), from a Barron's article by Mark Hurbert (on 5/27).


My bet is on the continued growth of FAANGM and other recovery stocks.


Short interest in FAANGs is high. S&P without teeth (fangs) sucks.

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Participant ○○

Re: Turbulence ahead?

Virus is probably #1 concern, especially if we get a true second wave. Unemployment is likely #2 in my view, not because of the shock factor but the very real effect on consumption, defaults, sentiment etc. Jack Forearm has been paddling up the creek without a paddle in a canoe laden with gold. He's tired and the steep edge is feet away. Does he dump the gold, dive in to save his life, or wait for a helicopter?

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Participant ○○○

Re: Turbulence ahead?

Remain flexible - and keep some dry powder. This too shall pass.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Turbulence ahead?

The market volatility stems from the many unknows of what effects the virus will eventually place on the economy. I can wait, maybe until after the elections before I add much to any of my investments. Likely several of my individual stocks will hit their stops and thus build a stronger cash position.

Best to all

Out

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Turbulence ahead?

What I have noticed today is that most of my stocks aren't reaching their average daily volume. ......good indicating for me not to be too worried. 

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Re: Turbulence ahead?

Summer doldrums kicks in...

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Re: Turbulence ahead?


@outandabout wrote:

What I have noticed today is that most of my stocks aren't reaching their average daily volume. ......good indicating for me not to be too worried. 


       How about sell in May and go away. Oops and you missed more gains. The operative term is always “may”. So how about a trading range until a vaccine? A significant portion of the U.S. population wants to drag this out. It is happening the same way in other countries. Not everyone owns stocks anyway mostly the well off. So who cares. Well I suppose you can add in more social disruption if you know who loses the election gets arrested and tried for tax evasion and “maybe” other counts. And on and on.
       
        My point is it never ends stay the course as some have said and do something fun for once. We all just had 10 good years where you all made and banked significant profits right? Lol. Oops. Beat the bank maybe? 

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Re: Turbulence ahead?


@steelpony10 

       
   "We all just had 10 good years where you all made and banked significant profits right?

Yep, met my goals and then some. No need for me to take on additional risk until I see a better indication of where equities are headed. What others do is no concern for me................I just wish them well, as their needs are very likely very different than mine.

 

 


 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Turbulence ahead?


@outandabout wrote:

@steelpony10 

       
   "We all just had 10 good years where you all made and banked significant profits right?

Yep, met my goals and then some. No need for me to take on additional risk until I see a better indication of where equities are headed. What others do is no concern for me................I just wish them well, as their needs are very likely very different than mine.

         I just keep the pedal to the metal. Of course I drive a beater and can afford the bumps and scraps. If I get anywhere it’s a pleasant surprise. At this point equities comprise about 25% of our portfolio. Their volatility and unpredictable nature also assist blood flow. 


 


 

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Re: Turbulence ahead?

No need for me to take on additional risk until I see a better indication of where equities are headed.”

How often do we enjoy a solid indication of where equities are headed? The surer we are of it, the less reward there will be (because there is less risk).

Risk and reward are always commensurate. The future of the market is always uncertain. The market always climbs walls of worry.

I think it’s unproductive to invest based on one’s confidence level in the direction of the market. Well, not for me, at least.

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Re: Turbulence ahead?


@chang wrote:

No need for me to take on additional risk until I see a better indication of where equities are headed.”

How often do we enjoy a solid indication of where equities are headed? The surer we are of it, the less reward there will be (because there is less risk).

Risk and reward are always commensurate. The future of the market is always uncertain. The market always climbs walls of worry.

I think it’s unproductive to invest based on one’s confidence level in the direction of the market. Well, not for me, at least.


While the future direction of the market is always uncertain, anyone who believes that this period right now is not uber uncertain may not be paying attention.  COVID, political, and economic uncertainty will very likely make the market "turbulent".  So what out is saying is he has neither the need or willingness to take that extra risk in search of extra reward.  He is not the only one in that situation.  Others here may well welcome the volatility.  Not everyone invests for maximum return.

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Re: Turbulence ahead?

Fair enough, Bill. I’m actually guilty myself. I received a pension payout approx 10% of my PV but I’m in no hurry to invest it. And when I do it will probably go into Wellesley.

My comment was a general one; I think it’s unwise to overestimate our ability to assess the market’s risk/reward factor at any given moment in time. But, like out, I don’t really need a lot more money—but I certainly don’t want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution.

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Re: Turbulence ahead?


@bilperk wrote:  Not everyone invests for maximum return.

 

 I do not invest for maximum returns, I do however remain fully invested at all times.

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Re: Turbulence ahead?

In typical times, one just needs to design asset allocation to one's time horizon and risk tolerance and let it run by itself.

This is atypical (or even unprecedented) time with several unsettled issues; thus, like @chang , I tend to be a bit overly-conservative in asset allocation.

For example, In the 2008 era, I thought Benjamin Graham's minimum of 25% in equity/stocks were pretty conservative.  I proved it to be wrong in my case.  I had to de-risked it to about 20% in equity to get my emotion out of the way (i.e., to be independent of the market's frequent gyrations). 

Well, this time around, it may be even worse in gyration and in depth...  

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