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Frequent Contributor

Sold most of my portfolio to cash

First, my goals...I'm sure some/many are screaming not again, boring...but as a retiree, I need only 4.5% ( Based on 2019, maybe I need only 4%) average annually to sustain our standard of living. So, I want to make 6% with the lowest volatility and never lose more than 3% from any last top. 

YTD mostly in 2 bond funds investing at a higher % in NHMAX + lower % in IOFIX. Yesterday I sold half of NHMAX. Today I sold all of NHMAX + most of IOFIX.  This YTD (chart) is the answer to why.

So, why now?  rates went low very quickly, NHMAX made nicely YTD.  I want to bank my sure money.  Later. I will enter again depending on markets.  Maybe a ST fund like NVHAX or less "risky" fund like OPTAX.

IOFIX did so much better than most other Multisector funds, again, I'm taking my profit and watching. There is no way to be sure how IOFIX will do if markets go wild.

VIX is extremely high and stocks crashed very quickly this week.  I bet our Fed (and maybe other abroad)  will do something,  I will buy 10-20-30% stocks based on markets.  QQQ looks like a better opportunity than many other indexes.

Volatility is my friend.

Please don't post that you are a buy and hold investor.  My goals NOW are changed and different.  Actually, I don't care what you do and most should do nothing.  BTW, at the end of 2019, I sold all my stocks.

As expected, I'm going to hear some "love"  :-)

36 Replies
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Participant ○○○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

What a vainglorious attempt to call attention to yourself. Just post on the buy/sell thread like everyone else.

Love, Django

Highlighted
Contributor ○○○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

Good move. You are one of the elite few that can successfully time the market. Thanks for the insight. 


@FD1001 wrote:

First, my goals...I'm sure some/many are screaming not again, boring...but as a retiree, I need only 4.5% ( Based on 2019, maybe I need only 4%) average annually to sustain our standard of living. So, I want to make 6% with the lowest volatility and never lose more than 3% from any last top. 

YTD mostly in 2 bond funds investing at a higher % in NHMAX + lower % in IOFIX. Yesterday I sold half of NHMAX. Today I sold all of NHMAX + most of IOFIX.  This YTD (chart) is the answer to why.

So, why now?  rates went low very quickly, NHMAX made nicely YTD.  I want to bank my sure money.  Later. I will enter again depending on markets.  Maybe a ST fund like NVHAX or less "risky" fund like OPTAX.

IOFIX did so much better than most other Multisector funds, again, I'm taking my profit and watching. There is no way to be sure how IOFIX will do if markets go wild.

VIX is extremely high and stocks crashed very quickly this week.  I bet our Fed (and maybe other abroad)  will do something,  I will buy 10-20-30% stocks based on markets.  QQQ looks like a better opportunity than many other indexes.

Volatility is my friend.

Please don't post that you are a buy and hold investor.  My goals NOW are changed and different.  Actually, I don't care what you do and most should do nothing.  BTW, at the end of 2019, I sold all my stocks.

As expected, I'm going to hear some "love"  :-)


 

Highlighted
Contributor ○○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

I sold all my MUNI CEFs on Thursday.  They are not that much as a percent of my overall portfolio.   I had about 20% capital gains and can easily cover those with capital losses to be harvested from equities.  I do not I am going to sell my intermediate MUNI OEFs which are in good credits.

Earlier this week, I sold half of PIMIX, which has behaved as expected.  Next week, I might throw in the towel on the remaining half of PIMIX and will be watching IOFIX, which is only 6% of my portfolio.

I think it is an excellent move by FD to cash out his chips.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

 

Very interesting post, FD.

Thanks for sharing.

Do you consider the biggest buy-back opportunity will come from stock funds...or  bond funds when rates rise back to even new-normal low rates, and bond fund prices drop accordingly?

I note in cash you can currently get  interest rates very near to those in longer duration stuff...so yes, why not wait.

R48

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

R48, 

My goals are very specific and a major one isn't to maximize performance, my goal of 6+% is already higher than what I need but I actually did much better.

Of course, stocks will perform better than bonds, it's a given.  Much higher SD is a given too.  My portfolio SD goal is under 3 but I have done SD=1.7 for 2018-19.  But I don't put too much emphasis on buyback and/or higher distributions, a good stock can also be with none of these. 

BTW, I don't care what treasuries are doing and/or their distributions.  My favorite subsector of Multi is securitized and it pays over 4.5% examples: SEMMX,VCFAX,IOFIX....and my prefer HY Munis funds are OPTAX,ORNAX,NHMAX.

I usually don't wait long.  In the last 10 years I was twice out for 2-3 weeks each but much smaller %.  It was in 2013 and 2018/Q4.  

Tony Dwyer is one of my favorite T/A analysts (link).  He said: when the Fed cut rates, probably 0.5%, it will be the green light to buy stocks, at least for a ST for me.

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Contributor ○○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

 

"Please don't post that you are a buy and hold investor.  My goals NOW are changed and different.  Actually, I don't care what you do and most should do nothing.  BTW, at the end of 2019, I sold all my stocks."

----------

Come ON, FD, this won't do.    Week after week I grit my teeth and let Bentley's self-preening & boasting pass without comment, but your post is just too much.    The B/S/W thread was operating all December and January --- and you were actively posting all that time .... yet you curiously omit any mention you had "sold out in December"  .....until NOW! ?

When the market was flying high in January, you didn't deign to mention this big portfolio escape to cash.   But you claim it NOW ! ! ?      Others put trades out there, warts and all, in real time while others don't report trades at all  -- but not you.    EITHER you trade and only mention it when successful OR you're wasting our time with your fictions.

You're either a mouse or a fake.     Which is it? 

 

 

Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

@richardsok 

Oh, I don't know.  FD just posted in real time that he's getting out of his bond OEFs.  This is free info and I'm not complaining.  (OK, it would have added credibility to have also posted the purchase side of the trade, but you can't have everything.)

I did see a post that FD was selling his stocks last December, after the big run-up.  (I wish he'd also posted the stock purchases in real time, so people wouldn't make fun of him.)

I've told him at least a thousand times that he has to post his trades in real time.  Does he listen?  No.  I guess I'm just this schmuck on the Internet.  No respect!

Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

Why would you even state that you sold stocks in December at this point in time? Do you like providing your detractors with gobs of ammunition. It is practically giving "aid and comfort to the enemy". LOL

Kudos for reporting you sold you bond funds in real time though.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

@FD1001  Nice move(s) - good luck - thanks for sharing

Capital
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Highlighted
Contributor ○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

On Thursday, I sold seven of eleven bond mutual funds to bank capital gains. Not worried about last week's losses in CEFs or ETF performance, and will continue holding them. Depending on volatility next week, I will buy 'whatever' or continue holding cash.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash


@richardsok wrote:

 

"Please don't post that you are a buy and hold investor.  My goals NOW are changed and different.  Actually, I don't care what you do and most should do nothing.  BTW, at the end of 2019, I sold all my stocks."

----------

Come ON, FD, this won't do.    Week after week I grit my teeth and let Bentley's self-preening & boasting pass without comment, but your post is just too much.    The B/S/W thread was operating all December and January --- and you were actively posting all that time .... yet you curiously omit any mention you had "sold out in December"  .....until NOW! ?

When the market was flying high in January, you didn't deign to mention this big portfolio escape to cash.   But you claim it NOW ! ! ?      Others put trades out there, warts and all, in real time while others don't report trades at all  -- but not you.    EITHER you trade and only mention it when successful OR you're wasting our time with your fictions.

You're either a mouse or a fake.     Which is it? 

 

 


One of the reasons I post is to state my opinion about the big picture and how I invest and to promote a healthy discussion of generic portfolios, markets and investing topics. 

IMO, The B/S/W thread has limited use for most unless a poster states their goals, style, AA and what % in each.  What can I learn from these real examples from the Feb thread"I rolled funds out of SWVXX into ORNAX" or "Sold some TLT bot PCI, PTY. " without the above?

If you expect realtime all the time trades you will never see them because nobody does it and without all the context it's meaningless but many times you get pretty close trades from me.  I think that discussing specific funds/style/AA and pig picture movements are a lot more important.

But, my thread 2020 - bond funds analysis gives a pretty good picture of where most of my money is invested so why complain and make fake posts.  If I say that I invested mainly in 2 categories and I didn't report in realtime that for HY Munis I switch between NHMAX to ORNAX does it really make a big difference?  

So, you got any market movement you like to discuss?

 

 

THIS WEEK'S ARTICLES
 
 
Three Charts That Suggest an Interim Bottom is at Hand
by Martin Pring
These indicators tell us nothing about the long-term trend; they merely show that, based on historical precedent, we should expect to see an end to the recent short-term decline.
 
 
 
Three Charts Suggesting Further Downside
by David Keller
Is it reasonable to expect that next week will see the markets recover at least a bit after this week's mayhem? Absolutely. But here are three charts suggesting that any short-term market bounce will most likely be followed by further downside for stocks.
 
5 Key Takeaways From Last Week's Historic Drop
by Tom Bowley
I don't know how the coronavirus will impact the global economy, I wish I did. But I do believe it's a one-time drop in the market and we'll set sail right back on our secular bull market course once it's behind us. And that's also what many of the key takeaways above are telling me. We may not have seen the low yet, because fears will run rampant again, I'm sure, as we count coronavirus cases one by one. The Fed, however, will act very soon to lower rates and sentiment will turn, even if only temporarily. Friday's low was marked with a VIX reading near 50. Historically, extreme sentiment readings mark bottoms. We'll see if Friday marks a major low this time. Even if we bounce next week, I would expect we'll eventually see a test of Friday's low, perhaps even one more low.
Highlighted
Participant ○○○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash


@richardsok wrote:

----------

Come ON, FD, this won't do.    Week after week I grit my teeth and let Bentley's self-preening & boasting pass without comment, but your post is just too much.    The B/S/W thread was operating all December and January --- and you were actively posting all that time .... yet you curiously omit any mention you had "sold out in December"  .....until NOW! ?

When the market was flying high in January, you didn't deign to mention this big portfolio escape to cash.   But you claim it NOW ! ! ?      Others put trades out there, warts and all, in real time while others don't report trades at all  -- but not you.    EITHER you trade and only mention it when successful OR you're wasting our time with your fictions.

You're either a mouse or a fake.     Which is it? 

 


Yes and Yes?

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Contributor ○○○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

Sitting at around a 14%  drop now, 2 of these forecasts don't look good. The third is better. I like and agree with Bowley's comment " In conclusion....
If you can't tell, I don't trust Wall Street and I don't trust the media. Wall Street will make money at your expense and mine every single time. And if you believe every story out of the media, I have a bridge to sell ya."


@FD1001 wrote:

@richardsok wrote:

 

"Please don't post that you are a buy and hold investor.  My goals NOW are changed and different.  Actually, I don't care what you do and most should do nothing.  BTW, at the end of 2019, I sold all my stocks."

----------

Come ON, FD, this won't do.    Week after week I grit my teeth and let Bentley's self-preening & boasting pass without comment, but your post is just too much.    The B/S/W thread was operating all December and January --- and you were actively posting all that time .... yet you curiously omit any mention you had "sold out in December"  .....until NOW! ?

When the market was flying high in January, you didn't deign to mention this big portfolio escape to cash.   But you claim it NOW ! ! ?      Others put trades out there, warts and all, in real time while others don't report trades at all  -- but not you.    EITHER you trade and only mention it when successful OR you're wasting our time with your fictions.

You're either a mouse or a fake.     Which is it? 

 

 


One of the reasons I post is to state my opinion about the big picture and how I invest and to promote a healthy discussion of generic portfolios, markets and investing topics. 

IMO, The B/S/W thread has limited use for most unless a poster states their goals, style, AA and what % in each.  What can I learn from these real examples from the Feb thread"I rolled funds out of SWVXX into ORNAX" or "Sold some TLT bot PCI, PTY. " without the above?

If you expect realtime all the time trades you will never see them because nobody does it and without all the context it's meaningless but many times you get pretty close trades from me.  I think that discussing specific funds/style/AA and pig picture movements are a lot more important.

But, my thread 2020 - bond funds analysis gives a pretty good picture of where most of my money is invested so why complain and make fake posts.  If I say that I invested mainly in 2 categories and I didn't report in realtime that for HY Munis I switch between NHMAX to ORNAX does it really make a big difference?  

So, you got any market movement you like to discuss?

 

 

THIS WEEK'S ARTICLES
 
 
Three Charts That Suggest an Interim Bottom is at Hand
by Martin Pring
These indicators tell us nothing about the long-term trend; they merely show that, based on historical precedent, we should expect to see an end to the recent short-term decline.
 
 
 
Three Charts Suggesting Further Downside
by David Keller
Is it reasonable to expect that next week will see the markets recover at least a bit after this week's mayhem? Absolutely. But here are three charts suggesting that any short-term market bounce will most likely be followed by further downside for stocks.
 
5 Key Takeaways From Last Week's Historic Drop
by Tom Bowley
I don't know how the coronavirus will impact the global economy, I wish I did. But I do believe it's a one-time drop in the market and we'll set sail right back on our secular bull market course once it's behind us. And that's also what many of the key takeaways above are telling me. We may not have seen the low yet, because fears will run rampant again, I'm sure, as we count coronavirus cases one by one. The Fed, however, will act very soon to lower rates and sentiment will turn, even if only temporarily. Friday's low was marked with a VIX reading near 50. Historically, extreme sentiment readings mark bottoms. We'll see if Friday marks a major low this time. Even if we bounce next week, I would expect we'll eventually see a test of Friday's low, perhaps even one more low.

 

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

If everyone agreed and everyone was right, would there even be a stock market?

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Highlighted
Participant ○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

Agree.  Now is the time to add more stock (risk in general) as people are selling good assets out of fear.   Preferred shares are looking more attractive than they have looked all year.   Dividend paying companies are more attractive.   High growth is starting to come down to attractive PEs.  Value is even more of a value....and the S&P 500 is trading around an 18PE.   

I'm not advocating to go all in, but for those with some cash.....geez.....defense companies are looking good.  Dividend paying companies with hard assets are looking good (select REITs).    

I will more than likely be rotating out of fixed income into stocks/riskier assets as well in the coming weeks.   Will look at preferreds first.....and then beaten down defensive companies and REITs (medical/etc)...then perhaps a add to some tech growth positions.   

S&P 2800-2850 is a possibility though.   Hold on.   ...and I suspect a market head fake coming.   

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

I have sold nothing. I have no plans to sell anything. I will buy more as the cash comes in. Cash goes into the allocations below policy.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash


@Bentley wrote:

I have sold nothing. I have no plans to sell anything. I will buy more as the cash comes in. Cash goes into the allocations below policy.


So Bentley....a question...mind sharing how you will do such rebalancing or adding cash?

Do you do it time-based, such as annually, or qtrly or monthly?  Or based on allocation percent wandering away from desired allocation?  Do you select which funds in which to add?  Do you do any market timing on these purchases around your set points?  Is this in an ISP?

Like, if you had received dividends or meaningful cash last Tuesday, what would you have done with it?

TIA.

R48

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

People claimed "magic" timing in this form; tricked once B4, no more.:)  When recovered, wow, they (claimed that they) did it again:D

Gentle (general) reminder:  This is internet.  Don't pay serious attention and/or give too much credibility; especially when it sounds too good to be true.

Highlighted
Explorer ○○

Re: Sold most of my portfolio to cash

FD. I have no axe to grind. Appreciate your sharing. Respect your input, even if I disagree. I have had interest rate concerns for some time time. I have greatly reduced my bond holdings. Eliminating most of my bond funds. I have rotated to ETF Corporate bonds, mostly short term. The reason for ETF is their immediate sale aspect. There may come a time when one day could cost you more than you are aware.

The Repo issues are telling you that the banks do not trust each other. What happens when there are no longer any buyers, or a huge shortage of buyers? The worldwide bond market is 100 TRILLION dollars. Even the fed can not stop a leak in a dam that size.

 Still hold reduced shares of PONAX and PFANX, but both are on a short leash. 

Interest rates are at a 3,000 year low.  Ponder that. Suspect that interest rates will rise, and as the increases begin they will be as surprising as the dramatic turn around in equity prices. Scared money moves fast, be it in equities, or bonds.

Real time posting is not an issue with me. Tend to give most folk benefit of doubt, even when it is suspect. Truth is their issue, not mine. With all the divisiveness in the world, not sure what is true anymore.

Not in all cash as you are, but keeping my knives very sharp.

Regards,

Lamar 

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