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Frequent Contributor

So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?

      My crystal ball inherited from grandma the shaman says trading range until a vaccine and people settle down. I wouldn’t call these riots like the 60’s or a severe plunging economy. It is not that bad really just widespread panic and some not getting the message dragging this out. If calm is restored with a regime change and after that 100 day grace period with a vaccine things should begin to improve more.

      With no regime change and a lame duck presidency without calming the population with a vaccine recovery may be slower. So it all rides on current events in the short run as always. Well managed companies, solid investments, are still holding their own though in the background. I see a slowly improving or stabilizing economy in some sectors to date.

       With experience and patience an amateur should be able to make money under most markets conditions. Since I’am overloaded in growth heavy indexes with tech, on purpose by the way, that allows me to cherry pick individual holdings and take capital gains in those. So for me anyway I’am making money.

       If some want to flee to a MM or sit on the sidelines wringing there hands not knowing what to do  that’s fine. But that very act by amateur investors that I count on each correction or economic downturn  let’s me pick up bargains and cash gains at a later date.

 

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?

Not all investors are amateurs, steel. What about the many investors that are retired or have met their goals financially? Why should the they risk investing at this time?

Out

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?


@outandabout wrote:

Not all investors are amateurs, steel. What about the many investors that are retired or have met their goals financially? Why should the risk investing at this time?

Out


         When I say amateurs I mean investors that didn’t invest for a living, self taught. The one’s who I believe create money making opportunities for professional and amateurs like me that follow their lead.                

          Of course your right if you think your covered or it’s too risky you should stop. But when I consider the three unknowns I’ll never be sure of that or anything. Endless tinkering including being in and out of markets market timing is proven to be a poor investing method. Since we live off of CEF income this part of our portfolio may go to LTC at 10k/mo or maybe heirs. So a different perspective why someone invests at all.

           Starting during stagflation and living through the 60’s plus assassinations this is run of the mill stuff to me anyway with a different cause, culture and characters. I’am never in or out of markets. I’am investing in bargains, capturing capital gains or waiting for the next opportunity to do either.

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?


@steelpony10 wrote:

      My crystal ball inherited from grandma the shaman says trading range until a vaccine and people settle down. I wouldn’t call these riots like the 60’s or a severe plunging economy. It is not that bad really just widespread panic and some not getting the message dragging this out. If calm is restored with a regime change and after that 100 day grace period with a vaccine things should begin to improve more.

      With no regime change and a lame duck presidency without calming the population with a vaccine recovery may be slower. So it all rides on current events in the short run as always. Well managed companies, solid investments, are still holding their own though in the background. I see a slowly improving or stabilizing economy in some sectors to date.

       With experience and patience an amateur should be able to make money under most markets conditions. Since I’am overloaded in growth heavy indexes with tech, on purpose by the way, that allows me to cherry pick individual holdings and take capital gains in those. So for me anyway I’am making money.

       If some want to flee to a MM or sit on the sidelines wringing there hands not knowing what to do  that’s fine. But that very act by amateur investors that I count on each correction or economic downturn  let’s me pick up bargains and cash gains at a later date.

 


@steelpony10  - I'm still getting a fairly vague reading from my crystal ball. It says it probably will not get much higher that here but should not get much lower than there.  I just  hope that we can get here and stay a long way away from there. Seriously there are too many variables to have any idea where we will be at YE 2020. It's easier to look at the stock market and guess where it will be at YE 2040 than at YE 2020. 

Have a good weekend.

Capital
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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?


@steelpony10 wrote:

@outandabout wrote:

Not all investors are amateurs, steel. What about the many investors that are retired or have met their goals financially? Why should the risk investing at this time?

Out


 

          Endless tinkering including being in and out of markets market timing is proven to be a poor investing method.


 

+1

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?

I don't know but I remain fully invested.

Powell said it all depends on the virus. Fauci said that we can be cautiously optimistic that we'll have a vaccine by the end of this year/beginning of next. Something is for sure, be ready for a big jump at the first good results of the vaccine phase 3 studies.  

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?


@steelpony10 wrote:           

          Of course your right if you think your covered or it’s too risky you should stop.

 


+1

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?


@Capital 

          A sneeze took us from the “Goldilocks “ economy of the 21st century back to the plague of the 14th century. 
         
           Since I’am basically an optimist I’ll go out on a limb and say next year will be better. After all it’s only been 5 months. For your eyes only we’re probably not half through yet, keep that on the down low.  Lol. 🖖


 

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?

I don’t know and I don’t care. The equities I own have performed specularly since I began buying in March and their returns will be better than the Dow because I don’t own losers such as WBA, XOM, IBM, INTC,BA and DWDP.

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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?


@steelpony10 wrote:

@Capital 

          A sneeze took us from the “Goldilocks “ economy of the 21st century back to the plague of the 14th century. 
         
           Since I’am basically an optimist I’ll go out on a limb and say next year will be better. After all it’s only been 5 months. For your eyes only we’re probably not half through yet, keep that on the down low.  Lol. 🖖


 


@steelpony10  My lips are sealed. I won't tell anyone about this - I promise on my horse barn. You know - the one I don't own yet.

Capital
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Re: So where do we see The Dow at the end of the year?

It may be a seesaw market for quite a while with some triggers upward and some downward (e.g., virus conditions, vaccine development, election, and seasonality); some events are built into market already.  

Sorry, this is as if I have said nothing.  Nobody really knows, as usual.

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