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Re: Shortest recession on record!

Was this the FASTEST downdraft is history also?

Just asking, I try not to follow the daily movements of the markets; just going by my aging memory!

 

Matt

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@PN wrote:

bilperk, it seems like that definition has some wiggle room in it as to what is and what is not a recession. El Lobo's definition seems like more of a black line test that would not be subject to partisan debate.


@PN 

There is no partisan debate.  I quoted the definition from the agency that determines if we are in a recession of not.  Essentially, the change in definition is to point out the obvious, instead of waiting 2 quarters.  The reason for that is that the government tends to act differently in response to a recession than just a downturn that may be a recession.

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@bilperk wrote:

@PN wrote:

bilperk, it seems like that definition has some wiggle room in it as to what is and what is not a recession. El Lobo's definition seems like more of a black line test that would not be subject to partisan debate.


@PN 

There is no partisan debate.  I quoted the definition from the agency that determines if we are in a recession of not.  Essentially, the change in definition is to point out the obvious, instead of waiting 2 quarters.  The reason for that is that the government tends to act differently in response to a recession than just a downturn that may be a recession.


It is my non-humble opinion that the government's recent response of throwing $6 trillion or so of liquidity into the economy wasn't in response to their declaration that a recession had started in March, after a peak in GDP in February, but rather to the fact that the economies in 43 states had been shutdown, with attendant and anticipated unemployment numbers, starting in mid-March!  Without those shutdowns, there was no underlying trigger or reason for any reduction in the GDP.  After all, with interest rates hitting an all time rock bottom shortly after the Fed cut the funds rate to, essentially, zero, ZIRP conditions are typically favorable to businesses.

By the way, the NBER declared the start of THIS recession in their June 8 release memo. so 3 months, or just 1 quarter, into their defined recession.  I am quite certain that any of us around here would have been able to make that call around the first of April or so!  8-))

De gustibus non disputandum est,
Quot homines tot sententiæ
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Re: Shortest recession on record!

Hey Ching, I just gave an opinion. You did not understand my comment but that happens often with you. 

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@fred495 wrote:

@CarlosDS wrote:

My question is, isn't it obvious that with such terrible GDP numbers for Q1 and Q2, the GDP is closer to go up in Q3 or Q4 than keep going down? Kind of the economic damage caused by the pandemic already riched its bottom after we passed the peak. Of course, all bets are off and further constriction will occur if COVID numbers go back up to those seen at the peak (over 30K new cases and 2K deaths per day). 


 

Under these highly uncertain and unpredictable circumstances that you describe, my question is, isn't the stock market currently overvalued?

I happen to share the concerns of dtconroe who stated on another thread that "I also am expecting volatility to be a theme in the second half, as we start dealing with the reality of bankruptcies, unemployment, state and city governments facing major cuts to compensate for their revenue losses, the political campaigns, and a coronavirus pandemic that will continue to have a dampening affect on many business areas."

I am a retired investor, and my time horizon is rather limited to make up any significant losses. Hence, until  the proverbial dust settles, I feel more comfortable protecting my portfolio by investing in fairly low risk bond fund categories at this time.

Good luck,

Fred


 

My only point Fred was that even with positive numbers in Q3, the economy will still be in a bad shape and far from a recovery. 

Regarding the fair value of stocks, I am with you. I think that the trillion dollars put into the economy are inflating stock prices. IMO

Good luck,

 

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@fred495 wrote:

 

Under these highly uncertain and unpredictable circumstances that you describe, my question is, isn't the stock market currently overvalued?

I happen to share the concerns of dtconroe who stated on another thread that "I also am expecting volatility to be a theme in the second half, as we start dealing with the reality of bankruptcies, unemployment, state and city governments facing major cuts to compensate for their revenue losses, the political campaigns, and a coronavirus pandemic that will continue to have a dampening affect on many business areas."

I am a retired investor, and my time horizon is rather limited to make up any significant losses. Hence, until  the proverbial dust settles, I feel more comfortable protecting my portfolio by investing in fairly low risk bond fund categories at this time.

Good luck,

Fred


I think that valuation is a relative thing. It's possible that the bond market is now finally more "overvalued" than stocks. So far, central banks have been purchasing bonds, not stocks.

Several categories of stocks have better YTD returns than multi-sector bonds. 

I foresee continued central bank largesse that will be supportive of stock prices. Meanwhile, the prospect of an effective vaccine increases. Stock markets look forwards, not backwards.

That's my 2.

N.

 

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@NotEinstein wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@PN wrote:

bilperk, it seems like that definition has some wiggle room in it as to what is and what is not a recession. El Lobo's definition seems like more of a black line test that would not be subject to partisan debate.


@PN 

There is no partisan debate.  I quoted the definition from the agency that determines if we are in a recession of not.  Essentially, the change in definition is to point out the obvious, instead of waiting 2 quarters.  The reason for that is that the government tends to act differently in response to a recession than just a downturn that may be a recession.


It is my non-humble opinion that the government's recent response of throwing $6 trillion or so of liquidity into the economy wasn't in response to their declaration that a recession had started in March, after a peak in GDP in February, but rather to the fact that the economies in 43 states had been shutdown, with attendant and anticipated unemployment numbers, starting in mid-March!  Without those shutdowns, there was no underlying trigger or reason for any reduction in the GDP.  After all, with interest rates hitting an all time rock bottom shortly after the Fed cut the funds rate to, essentially, zero, ZIRP conditions are typically favorable to businesses.

By the way, the NBER declared the start of THIS recession in their June 8 release memo. so 3 months, or just 1 quarter, into their defined recession.  I am quite certain that any of us around here would have been able to make that call around the first of April or so!  8-))


And your point?  i said "  Essentially, the change in definition is to point out the obvious, instead of waiting 2 quarters."  You say " I am quite certain that any of us around here would have been able to make that call around the first of April or so! ".

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@PaulR888 wrote:

Interesting Part 2 (second week) interview on Consuelo's website.  David is sometimes called a perma bear.  But I like to listen to both sides of things.  Don't forget to check out the Web Extra at the end.  

link


Interesting video. IMO, Rosemberg is right that a vaccine will be a game-changer but he is wrong in the timing. Next year will be available.  

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Re: Shortest recession on record!

"Hopping off the train could be hazardous to your wealth."

As you've said before it was Covid19 that slowed the train down and not the threat of a recession based on a weakening economy.  What are you predictions for the DOW, Bentley, now that the train is on the move?

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@outandabout wrote:

"Hopping off the train could be hazardous to your wealth."

As you've said before it was Covid19 that slowed the train down and not the threat of a recession based on a weakening economy.  What are you predictions for the DOW, Bentley, now that the train is on the move?


 

Tim,

 There has been no change in my prediction, why do you continue to ask?

More importantly, I have asked you politely to STOP using my name in your posts. For years you have followed me around and added nothing to the topics or discussion.

Do you remember saying you ignore ALL my posts yet you seem to reply to more of my posts than any other member?

Below is a classic post of yours from Mar 2019 made in response to me pointing out how often you reply while you had me on "ignore".

 

 

tar42 ( outandabout )
Re: AT&T - Keeping tabs
Tue, Mar 26 2019, 6:01 PM | Post #4000326
Any idiot that would compare T to VTI should be on ignore. How you got off ignore can be blamed on my brother. Back on ignore sonny. You should stick to the off topic stuff where you look like a fool only 8 out of 10 times.

 

 

In this single post, you refer to me as an idiot and a fool while explaining that your brother took me off ignore? LOL!!!

1.) What was your brother doing on your computer?

2.) How was he allowed to change your account settings in Morningstar?

3.) After navigating the many steps required to remove someone from the ignore list, why did he choose to remove me?

 

 You have made many posts that made me question your credibility, this Mar 2019 post is but one. Please, please, please put me on mental ignore.

veni vidi vici vti
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Re: Shortest recession on record!

Bentley, calm down. It works both ways, friend...you followed up, time and time again on your concerns about AT&T, even though you didn't hold the stock, you've been critical of my spelling and my grammar...…..

I think we can both improve our postings, Bentley. Let's forget the past!!! 

I asked a simple question on this tread!

Best to you

Out

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Re: Shortest recession on record!

 Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. I think it would be best if you would stop following me around and honor your pledge to ignore me. In the many years, we have been posting, I have never referred to you as an idiot, fool, or any other form of condescending personal terminology and find it a waste of time to engage those who do.

 

tar42 ( Outandabout )
Re: AT&T - Keeping tabs
Tue, Mar 26 2019, 6:01 PM | Post #4000326
Any idiot that would compare T to VTI should be on ignore. How you got off ignore can be blamed on my brother. Back on ignore sonny. You should stick to  the off topic stuff where you look like a fool only 8 out of 10 times.

 

 

 Please, please, please honor your pledge made many times to put me on ignore.

Thank you

veni vidi vici vti
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Re: Shortest recession on record!

Brantley, does that mean you won't poke fun at active investors, continue to suggest active investors would do better it they invested in passive funds, or start posts on AT&T just to provoke debate? As recently as week ago you opened a new thread on AT&T comparing its return to VTI. Since you have no ownership in these investments I can't imagine why you wouldn't agree! Many of your post invite debate, my friend, so you can hardly limit who responds if you continue to bait them.

My initial post was a fair question, Bentley, so why the anger.

Let's start over and act like buds? No Opera or diners, just buds OK? I'm offering olive branch.

 

 

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@Bentley wrote:

Economy
Published June 15


V-shaped recovery coming from sharpest, shortest recession on record: Morgan Stanley


The global economy will return to pre-coronavirus output levels by the end of the year, according to economists at Morgan Stanley.
Significant policy support has ensured that while the current recession is sharper than the one experienced during the 2008 global financial crisis the recovery will be faster, they said.
“We have greater confidence in our call for a V-shaped recovery, given recent upside surprises in growth data and policy action,” wrote Chetan Ahya, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. “The global economy bottomed in April and the recovery will gather further momentum, making this a short recession.”


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/v-shaped-recovery-sharpest-shortest-recession-morgan-stanley

 

 Hopping off the train could be hazardous to your wealth.


Wishful thinkin . I say, not likely because the market seems artificially high and overbought.  

I said back in March we would have a U shaped recovery, with future low points; perhaps not as low as last March,  yet here I am being optimistic.  I think we will have a 4 quarter recession and likely longer. Much of it does depend on when we have a coronavirus vaccine,  or an effective treatment. Even the best of outcomes, the market does not seem to have priced in a pandemic without a treatment this year. We also have a severe unemployment rate,  with is not likely to find a quick remedy. 

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Re: Shortest recession on record!


@FatKat wrote:

@Bentley wrote:

Economy
Published June 15


V-shaped recovery coming from sharpest, shortest recession on record: Morgan Stanley


The global economy will return to pre-coronavirus output levels by the end of the year, according to economists at Morgan Stanley.
Significant policy support has ensured that while the current recession is sharper than the one experienced during the 2008 global financial crisis the recovery will be faster, they said.
“We have greater confidence in our call for a V-shaped recovery, given recent upside surprises in growth data and policy action,” wrote Chetan Ahya, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. “The global economy bottomed in April and the recovery will gather further momentum, making this a short recession.”


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/v-shaped-recovery-sharpest-shortest-recession-morgan-stanley

 

 Hopping off the train could be hazardous to your wealth.


Wishful thinkin . I say, not likely because the market seems artificially high and overbought.  

I said back in March we would have a U shaped recovery, with future low points; perhaps not as low as last March,  yet here I am being optimistic.  I think we will have a 4 quarter recession and likely longer. Much of it does depend on when we have a coronavirus vaccine,  or an effective treatment. Even the best of outcomes, the market does not seem to have priced in a pandemic without a treatment this year. We also have a severe unemployment rate,  with is not likely to find a quick remedy. 


Great post, FatKat.

Another link that supports your thinking: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-broken-uptrend-in-a-key-government-bond-yield-is-a-bad-omen-for-...

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