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Explorer ○

Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/48

When asked" Most of our listeners are individual investors or advisors who diversify their assets widely across asset classes and styles, often using index funds and ETFs. Do you think this episode warrants a re-think of how they’ve approached asset allocation and investment selection? (27:03)"

His words from this answer serve a great reminder with wisdom.

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20 Replies
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Explorer ○○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Well worth a listen. If markets over-shoot and dry capital on the sidelines seizes the opportunity, isn't that what is supposed to happen? If policy is able to target the stress points effectively we're just buoying values (which the Fed failed to do) preventing assets from finding a more meaningful equilibrium. He explains why 2019 confounded expectations, so why would a return to those levels be warranted or even desirable?

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Contributor ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

          What country did? Sorta stating the obvious. Anyway as of an hour ago the number of new cases since 3/18 is flattening out in my state since the lockdown just like China and in several other countries. We just have to wait out the total recovery and deal with the aftershocks and finger pointing until the next big headline grabber.

           The Governors did the heavy lifting to save lives while politics took the place of action in Washington. That’s really really sad to me. So thanks to all the state governments for there quick decisive action along with the career bureaucrats in the capital that ignored two branches of the federal government and did as much as they could for the people of the U.S.

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Participant ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

what state?

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Valued Contributor

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

No country was prepared for such an unprecedented onslaught of infection from an unknown form of virus which is easily spread by close contact. Epicenter for CV is the most densely populated area of the US, NYC, with a population of 8.6Million where 28,000 people live per square mile. 10 million people took NYC mass transit every day and over 30 million travelers a year fly in and out of JFK. Many travelers carried the CV virus into the city which was transmitted to the surrounding suburbs and Northern NJ and CT. As of today there are almost 22,000 cases of CV and 281 dead in NYC which is straining health resources.

Same chaos occurred in northern Italy where there are reports of 100,000 Chinese workers in the northern part of the country making luxury designer fashion goods who flew back and forth to Wuhan province on direct flights

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Explorer ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Taiwan was prepared due to the painful SARS experience.

Not only the governments, as well as the citizens.

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-peop...

"The public’s cooperation with the government’s recommended measures was crucial to prevent the spread of the virus"--People know this is not time for spring break party!

on 3/13, case # is 50+

On 3/26, case # 265

The new added cases are mostly from travelers outside of country, Europe, Turkey, and sadly US too.

 

 

 

 

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Valued Contributor

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’


@Lily wrote:

Taiwan was prepared due to the painful SARS experience.

Not only the governments, as well as the citizens.

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-peop...

"The public’s cooperation with the government’s recommended measures was crucial to prevent the spread of the virus"--People know this is not time for spring break party!

on 3/13, case # is 50+

On 3/26, case # 265

The new added cases are mostly from travelers outside of country, Europe, Turkey, and sadly US too.

 

 

 

 


You are ignoring the obvious. Low infection rate in Taiwan Results from low population density of 1680 people per square mile which is about 6% of the population density of NYC. Population of Taiwan is less than the number of persons who travel on the NYC transit system every 3 days and less than the number of travelers who passed through JFK in 2019.

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Explorer ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Intruder - Not entirely correct. There are reasons why South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Germany, Netherlands and a few others are having low rates of infection. These countries were effective able to 'flatten the curve'.

 

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Valued Contributor

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’


@rpkrpi wrote:

Intruder - Not entirely correct. There are reasons why South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Germany, Netherlands and a few others are having low rates of infection. These countries were effective able to 'flatten the curve'.

 


If you know them, What were were the reasons? As I noted other countries do not have dense concentration of  People who live in the NYC region which includes, NJ, CT, PA and LI.


FYI Ryan: I was unable to Post this message several times  because I received the stupid message that my message has been changed because invalid HTML was found in the message body and the invalid HTML has been removed (which is a mystery to me) even though as you can see there is no html in the body of my message.

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Participant ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

NYC and metro NY has a high population density by US standards - but Hong Kong, Seoul, and Tokyo are far more densely populated.

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Valued Contributor

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’


@SJ60 wrote:

NYC and metro NY has a high population density by US standards - but Hong Kong, Seoul, and Tokyo are far more densely populated.


Where did you get that information from?  population density of Hong Kong is 17,000 people per square mile, Seoul,16,000, Tokyo16,100 while population density of NYC is 28,000 per square mile,

check your facts,

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Participant ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

I used data from City Mayors statistics which is an international source - which said no US city was in the top 50 world wide, while the 4 Asian ones I listed were. We can waste time arguing about which sets of statistics to believe - but the bottom line is that Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Tokyo are all densely populated regions. Density matters, sure, but so probably do other things which we do not know yet - we'll have the answers eventually.  New Orleans and Detroit are not particularly densely populated, but both seem to be in the throes of a rapid increase this week.

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Explorer ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

According to Wikipedia Manhattan's population density is 66,940 people per square mile. Highest of any county in the US.

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Participant ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

NYC has 26k/sq mile, Seoul has 40k/sq mile - both from Wikipedia. Manhattan has 66k, but that is only one of the 5 boroughs of NYC.

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Explorer ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

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Participant ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Just for kicks I looked at Wikipedia - the population and area numbers are from Wikipedia, the calculations are mine, but straightforward.

City proper, metro area (which might include areas that are not considered urban), and urban area. I would not use pop density to explain differing epidemiology

 Pop cityarea sq kmdensity/sq kmdensity/sq mi
Seoul9,806,00060516,20841,493
Taipei2,646,0002729,72824,904
NYC8,398,74878610,68527,355
Tokyo13,515,27121916,16915,791
Hong Kong7,298,60011046,61116,924
     
 Pop metroarea sq kmdensity/sq kmdensity/sq mi
Seoul25,514,000117042,1805,581
Taipei6,700,000N/A  
NYC19,303,808173151,1152,854
Tokyo37,274,000134522,7717,093
Hong KongN/AN/A  
     
 Pop urbanarea sq kmdensity/sq kmdensity/sq mi
Seoul24,315,00027458,85822,676
Taipei8,535,00011407,48719,166
NYC21,045,000118751,7724,537
Tokyo38,505,00082234,68311,987
Hong Kong7,435,00028526,08866,785
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Explorer ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

I have already posted several countries on the list. You are incorrect on population density. Japan and Tokyo and many Asian countries have a much greater population density than NYC. In fact, NYC is not even in the top 50 worldwide.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/07/11/the-50-most-densely-populated-cities-in-the-wor...

 

 

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Participant ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

@rpkrpi

I hope that the "you are wrong" comment was directed towards Intruder, not to me.  I think that you and I are/were saying the same thing. In fact, in my initial posting I used the information from the same source that you linked to.  I subsequently also got data from a second source and used it to provide a more nuanced picture.

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Shanghai? Beijing?

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Explorer ○

Re: Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

SJ650 - Yes, it was toward intruder and not you. Sorry if I replied to your post. I was trying t reply to the thread. Intruder was not correct about the population density statement.

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