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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

Somehow, Gary, I think Jeffery may be right about possibility hitting new lows before these markets settle into a trading range. Our economy hasn't come close to seeing the impact this virus will have on our economy. 

It's beginning to look like we'll be feeding the bear our equity gains from the past few days. I really can't imagine how the passive investors are feeling. Some, as we know, have made allocation changes, likely to cash.

Consider:https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/only-one-stock-in-the-dow-rose-during-the-first-quarter-—-...

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

Bond guys have bearish outlook.

Anyone remember Bill Gross DJIA 5,000 call a few years ago? That didn't happen and he regretted his call later.

YBB
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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

I just think we don’t have a bottom yet. It’s only  a feeling for this sudden drastic bear market. Needs more time to sort out. Maybe after the next 2 weeks once the death rate peaks. 

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says


@yogibearbull wrote:

Bond guys have bearish outlook.

Anyone remember Bill Gross DJIA 5,000 call a few years ago? That didn't happen and he regretted his call later.


Very true, yogi, on the bond guys. It will take into the second half of the year to see the affect of the virus on the economy IF it plays out in the next month or so...……………..Right now it's not looking good, as more deaths are expected as the virus spreads.

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

@outandabout 

Don't know what passive investors went to cash, and in any case the Forum's participants near total infatuation and preoccupation with CEFs has driven most away. Maybe you should ask how the CEF crowd is doing. That seems more relevant.

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says


@DJANG0 wrote:

@outandabout 

Don't know what passive investors went to cash,

I don't know either, just a guess though...……I doubt they would tell you if they did!

and in any case the Forum's participants near total infatuation and preoccupation with CEFs has driven most away. Maybe you should ask how the CEF crowd is doing. That seems more relevant.

You could ask, DJ. I sold mine earlier.

More power to the passive investors that can stay the course, but as an active investor I have to maintain my IRA so as to pay my living expenses. If my investment were entirely passive(buy& hold) I would be in trouble as I have no pension.


 

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says


@DJANG0 wrote:

@outandabout 

Don't know what passive investors went to cash, and in any case the Forum's participants near total infatuation and preoccupation with CEFs has driven most away. Maybe you should ask how the CEF crowd is doing. That seems more relevant.

We're hurting. FI CEFs are about 15% of my stuff...probably less now. I'm on re-invest dividends and sitting on almost 60% cash. If PIMCO can't work their way through this I don't know who can. My SCHD/VZ is now bond proxy and FI CEFs speculative, but they always were. If they drop another 10-15% I might nibble again. All income is getting killed today including utilities.


 

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

Huh? There are a couple of major threads on bond OEFs going on.

Does anyone get the concept of holding 1-2 years in CASH for these times?


@DJANG0 wrote:

@outandabout 

Don't know what passive investors went to cash, and in any case the Forum's participants near total infatuation and preoccupation with CEFs has driven most away. Maybe you should ask how the CEF crowd is doing. That seems more relevant.


 

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

Outandabout edited his post after I had responded, so my post no longer has any context.

Gary1952, it's true there are other posts and they are not about CEFs. I tend to exaggerate. 

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

Went to cash midJanuary @DJANG0 , (posted elsehere on this forum) but I always used actively managed funds. I am aware that index funds have outperformed actively managed funds, but I always wanted fund managers to have the capability to go to cash (or hedge), just as I do. But, nonetheless I went down to 3% equities at that time. I use the "bear market performance" attribute in Morningstar portfolios as but one way to find funds that seem to outperform in bear markets specifically, as a way to find those funds that depart from their regular charter during bad times (relative to index funds in their category)

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

@CherylBoca , be careful with M* Bear Market Rank as it is based on past 5 years only and there hasn't been a real bear market for the last 5 years. But it will become relevant again in future as coronavirus + oil shock bear market arrived before anyone could say recession is here.

http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/bear_market_percentage_rank.aspx

"Bear Market Percentage Rank

The bear-market percentile rank details how a fund has performed relative to all funds in its asset class during bear markets.

For stock funds, a bear market is defined as all months in the past five years that the S&P 500 lost more than 3%; for bond funds, it's all months in the past five years that the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index lost more than 1%.

Morningstar adds a fund's performance during each bear-market month to reach a total bear-market return. Based on these returns, each fund is then assigned a percentile ranking.

Stock funds are ranked separately from bond funds. Use this figure to analyze how well a fund performs during market downturns, relative to its peers. Morningstar generates this figure in-house, based on the monthly total returns for the funds during those periods defined as bear-market months.

The highest (or most favorable) percentile rank is 1 and the lowest (or least favorable) percentile rank is 100. The top-performing fund in the asset class will always receive a rank of 1.

Example: A fund with a bear-market rank of 5 has withstood poor markets relatively well, while one with a rank of 95 has not."

Note that M* remains confused about percentage rank and percentiles.

YBB
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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

Thank, yogi. Good reminder for those who haven't used the field before. It is a helpful "pre-sorter" to identify those showing less volatility. (Yes, there are other more quantitative metrics for that). The best way to compare, of course, is to use the interactive charter feature, and go back and look at the 10K Growth plot, and see how funds did in 2008 (bracket from 2007-2010). It can be rather interesting to see which actively managed funds take the deepest hits, vs those that didn't.... and then read their prospectus and look at their short positions to get a better handle on how they operate. 

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Re: Jeffery Capital CEO of DoubleLine says

@CherylBoca 

I've got a few years of cash to cover any expenses, I've got a slug of old EE bonds and I-Bonds producing over 4% annually, and only had about 35% exposure to stocks going into this. Maybe market timing works, but it has it's own risks I don't think I need to take. DeerIslander on the old Fido Forum was one brilliant guy who I greatly admired and was good at timing. Me, not so much. I accepted long ago that I'm average and should just accept the markets law of averages as my investment philosophy.

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