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Participant ○

Huge Number

The unemployment number is unbelievable.  Best save your pennies.

Gabe

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Valued Contributor

Re: Huge Number


@youth wrote:

The unemployment number is unbelievable.  Best save your pennies.

Gabe


But not unexpected. Question is how long will it take before they are rehired under $2T recovery bill.

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Re: Huge Number


@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

The unemployment number is unbelievable.  Best save your pennies.

Gabe


But not unexpected. Question is how long will it take before they are rehired under $2T recovery bill.


I agree!

Gabe

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Re: Huge Number

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 

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Re: Huge Number


@johnjtaylor wrote:

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 


A very, very difficult decision.  

Gabe

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Re: Huge Number


@johnjtaylor wrote:

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 


No one inside the beltway cares about SS taxes not being paid because SS can redeem some of the nearly  2.3T in treasury bonds that it could redeemed to pay SS benefits. Worst case scenario is that 3 months of reduced employment of the work force would reduce SS/Medicare taxes by 250B. SS has enough treasury assets to pay 100% of benefits for10+ years.

Undmployment benefits will be financed by increased treasury debt which is part of the recovery bill.

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Re: Huge Number


@johnjtaylor wrote:

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 


 

 No doubt, but think about what employers are facing and let me explain why I will not reopen any of our businesses until the virus has run its course.

1.) Forget the obvious……start-up costs……………$30,000/$75,000

2.) Unable to operate with 6 feet of social distancing.

3.) If an employee or customer exhibits signs or tests positive for the virus, I would have to shut down that location, start a two-week quarantine for employees and just hope they did not infect others.

4.) Rinse and repeat!

It is one thing to put yourself at risk; it is a whole other level to ask an employee to work for you knowing his chances of contracting the virus are increased by doing so. If opening would be the cause of one employee bringing the virus home to infect their children and/or spouse, I could never forgive myself for.

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Re: Huge Number

Agree, it’s going to get worse, before it gets better. We will need to see the new infection rates peak and be falling for a while, before we can really open things up. All this talk about “opening up” by Easter is probably very optimistic.

My suspicion is the unemployment rate will go much higher. Only “positive” is that certain industries (grocery stores, Walmart, Amazon, take out delivery, etc.) are actively hiring, so that may offer some temporary options for unemployed workers. Hopefully, once we turn the corner in terms of infections, the economy will turn the corner “relatively” quickly. 

Win
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Re: Huge Number

Yes but the haters will sound off about it being a bad decision. Hopefully Drs. Birx and Fauci are good with the decision. Yesterday they were as long as it is fluid. I’m still contributing to the economy in my slower paced part of the US. If I lived in CA or NY I wouldn’t  


@johnjtaylor wrote:

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 


 

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Re: Huge Number


@Gary1952 wrote:

Yes but the haters will sound off about it being a bad decision. Hopefully Drs. Birx and Fauci are good with the decision. Yesterday they were as long as it is fluid. I’m still contributing to the economy in my slower paced part of the US. If I lived in CA or NY I wouldn’t  


@johnjtaylor wrote:

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 


 


Hi Gary,

What haters are to talking about?  Those of us that don't want to see things relaxed too soon so the virus hits in a big way in, let's see, Tennessee?  Whatever steps are taken will be by governors and mayors and others in charge at the local level and intelligent business owners like Bentley, who know not to be penny smart and pound foolish.

The president can set a tone, but the health experts need to be the ones calling the shots.

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Re: Huge Number


@johnjtaylor wrote:

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 


As Dr. Fauci said, "the virus will determine the timeline"

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Re: Huge Number


@Intruder wrote:

@johnjtaylor wrote:

 

Unless small steps are soon taken to reopen parts of the country, won't the unintended consequences of massive unemployment and social stress amplify? 


No one inside the beltway cares about SS taxes not being paid because SS can redeem some the nearly  2.3T in treasury bonds that it could redeemed to pay SS benefits. Worst case scenario is that 3 months of reduced employment of the work force would reduce SS/Medicare taxes by 250B. SS has enough treasury assets to pay 100% of benefits for10+ years.

Undmployment benefits will be financed by increased treasury debt which is part of the recovery bill.


One can rob Peter to pay Paul, or take money from the right pocket and put it in the left, but Washington is $23+T in debt.

But that won't matter, until it does.

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Re: Huge Number

Unfortunately, no one cares about the debt!

Gabe

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Huge Number

 

Delicate calculus, but elected politicians will make the call eventually to incrementally reopen (as Birx discussed).

The Imperial College expert who had projected high UK-US death figures has now very significantly lowered those estimates.

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Participant ○

Re: Huge Number

DOW futures down this early evening by 250 points.  

Gabe

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Valued Contributor

Re: Huge Number


@youth wrote:

Unfortunately, no one cares about the debt!

Gabe


Nobody inside the beltway cares about the debt when the federal reserve can buy all of it and return 80% of the interest paid on the bonds to the treasury.

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