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youth
Explorer ○○○

How will the Market Do in December

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43 Replies
FD1001
Valued Contributor

Re: How will the Market Do in December

My cloudy crystal ball says the market will be up and down. 

Intruder
Participant ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

US stocks will Continue to go up.

Capital
Participant ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December


@youth wrote:

All time highs or a Pullback?

 

Gabe


https://justflipacoin.com/  - I normally do no less than two out of three.

Capital
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rila3400
Contributor ○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

With nearly 100% certainty, I predict the market will fluctuate in December. Unlike many other more prominent market prognosticators, my forecasts have been exceptionally accurate!

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bigM
Follower ○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

Like always....some days up & some days down.

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youth
Explorer ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

How will the market end up...up or down for the year.

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retiredat48
Participant ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

 

There's an old Wall Street mantra that goes:  BUY AT THANKSGIVING; SELL AT XMAS.

It derives from December being one of the strongest months there is.  Further, tax loss selling dries up by end of December.

Thus, I try my best never to sell anything during December...meaning I am holding or buying.

In last two decades, investors have been front-running Thanksgiving, such that the new mantra I use is: Buy at end of October, sell last week of year.  I often make some stock fund redemptions on last day of year, to cover upcoming RMDs for the new year. 

Thus, I will place bets saying December will be UP. 

R48

 

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FD1001
Valued Contributor

Re: How will the Market Do in December


@retiredat48 wrote:

 

There's an old Wall Street mantra that goes:  BUY AT THANKSGIVING; SELL AT XMAS.

It derives from December being one of the strongest months there is.  Further, tax loss selling dries up by end of December.

Thus, I try my best never to sell anything during December...meaning I am holding or buying.

In last two decades, investors have been front-running Thanksgiving, such that the new mantra I use is: Buy at end of October, sell last week of year.  I often make some stock fund redemptions on last day of year, to cover upcoming RMDs for the new year. 

Thus, I will place bets saying December will be UP. 

R48

 


Let's check the above for 2018.  Looking at the chart below we can see that the SP500(VFINX) lost about 6-11%(depending on the buy and sell)  from the last week of Oct 2018 to the last week on Dec 2018

vfinx.PNG

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archer
Participant ○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

Today is Dec 1 and so far not much action up or down. ;-)

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chang
Valued Contributor

Re: How will the Market Do in December

December is normally an up month. A major factor is whether retailers whose fortunes depend upon the Christmas season exceed or fall short of expectations.

If the Democrats drop the impeachment drive and opt for a censure, the market will jump. If they impeach, the market will suffer a blip downward which will be another Great Dip To Buy On. (No politics here, please: just stating the obvious.)

I'm looking to add slightly to equity positions on any dips.

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Intruder
Participant ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December


@chang wrote:

December is normally an up month. A major factor is whether retailers whose fortunes depend upon the Christmas season exceed or fall short of expectations.

If the Democrats drop the impeachment drive and opt for a censure, the market will jump. If they impeach, the market will suffer a blip downward which will be another Great Dip To Buy On. (No politics here, please: just stating the obvious.)

I'm looking to add slightly to equity positions on any dips.


A Dem Vote to censure means that they admit they never had a case to impeach Trump and their investigation was  partisan sham . And what if the senate does nothing?

why would market decline if house votes to impeach? McConnell has said Senate would never remove Trump because it would require 20 republican votes to do so..

 

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chang
Valued Contributor

Re: How will the Market Do in December

Intruder: I said a “blip”. I agree, a senate conviction has zero probability, but impeachment would probably cause a blip just because it would suggest insanity and dysfunction in Congress (I know, what a shocker). It would be a blip I would buy heavily on.
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arriba
Participant ○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

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Intruder
Participant ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December


@chang wrote:
Intruder: I said a “blip”. I agree, a senate conviction has zero probability, but impeachment would probably cause a blip just because it would suggest insanity and dysfunction in Congress (I know, what a shocker). It would be a blip I would buy heavily on.

The the blip will be shorter than the blip that occurred at the open of trading on Nov 9, 2016.

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retiredat48
Participant ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December


@FD1001 wrote:

@retiredat48 wrote:

 

There's an old Wall Street mantra that goes:  BUY AT THANKSGIVING; SELL AT XMAS.

It derives from December being one of the strongest months there is.  Further, tax loss selling dries up by end of December.

Thus, I try my best never to sell anything during December...meaning I am holding or buying.

In last two decades, investors have been front-running Thanksgiving, such that the new mantra I use is: Buy at end of October, sell last week of year.  I often make some stock fund redemptions on last day of year, to cover upcoming RMDs for the new year. 

Thus, I will place bets saying December will be UP. 

R48

 


Let's check the above for 2018.  Looking at the chart below we can see that the SP500(VFINX) lost about 6-11%(depending on the buy and sell)  from the last week of Oct 2018 to the last week on Dec 2018

vfinx.PNG


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Duh!  We all know last December had a goodly decline in the stock market.

In fact, one of the larger declines in December history.

But how much are you going to cherry-pick some backward looking data, to make what point?

And do you point out the huge rally in Jan 2019, that followed that December 2018 decline?

Simple fact is...most Decembers are great.

R48

 

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Gary1952
Contributor ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

The market knows impeachment is a farce. Today was proof that jobs mean more. 

 

FatKat
Participant ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

I think as long as nothing big happens, the market will continue to be strong. I do thing this bull market has too many folks worried and given a reason, more people will take part in a big sell-off, once it gets started.

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cegibbs
Participant ○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

What difference does one month or year make?  Absolutely none....even for retirees like me.

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Gary1952
Contributor ○○○

Re: How will the Market Do in December

The people that will sell will be late to the party selling then late again getting back in. I really wish I could tell if the first 5% is a correction or a bear. Does anyone dare holding cash to wait until the market corrects?


@FatKat wrote:

I think as long as nothing big happens, the market will continue to be strong. I do thing this bull market has too many folks worried and given a reason, more people will take part in a big sell-off, once it gets started.


 

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