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Explorer ○○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

 

If you want to read a superb and chilling description of the ravages of a Plague from an eyewitness, Re-Read Boccaccio's Decameron, or Defoe's Novel, A Journal of a Plague Year.

 

Signed, 

NoFriends1.

[ a Classics and Philosophy Major ]

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

The New York Stock Exchange has closed before.  After Lincoln's assassination it was closed for a week; in the 1870's, sorry forget the year, it closed for 10 days during a banking crisis and at the outbreak of WW1 in 1914 it closed from August until Nov. for bonds and until Dec. for stock.  But the Fed did not exist until just before WW1 and even then it did not have the tools it has now.  

Yes, its a bit crazy; here the grocery stores are full, Walmart now has an abundance of toilet paper. Why are people hoarding water?   Rats, Lice and History by Zinsser written in 1935 is still a classic on pandemics.  Its still in print. 

If things get really bad, I can always grow flax and make my own cloths:

https://www.mountvernon.org/video/view/265/

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@Bizman wrote:

Yeah, shutting the market is a bad idea.  Better to let it go where it will go and then recover.  I don't believe the market was closed during the 1929 crash or the Great Depression.  It certainly wasn't during the Financial Crisis in 2008-2009.


Yes, shutting the schools, colleges, universities, cities, states, businesses, etc. all make sense. But, not the markets.

Got it!

PS: Yes, they didn't shut the markets during 2008 crisis, but they banned short selling, reinstated uptick rule, etc. to reduce the fear. But, it didn't help and markets lost more than 50%.

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

We are well beyond market correction now. I think we are seeing panic investment selling like we did in 2008. This one appears to be going lower. It seems many assume the virus will be a major pandemic that will kill like the plague! Once people see that not every one out of ten will perish from this disease, I will bet the market recovers about 20%, or near half way. People are assuming the worse. once they know rather than have to assume what the consequence will be, the market should stabilize and begin to rise.

 

Problem now is, if you bought into between the fist down Fridays, from February 28 to March 6th, that investment will take a long time to enter back into gain territory. If you invest tomorrow, then I would hope your gain would come once we get a handle on this disease, yet that might be a long time off and if the market continues to drop beyond that point, we are in deep trouble and might slip through a recession, into a depression with no short term resolution.

 

I figure i have about a hundred grand in lock beyond my lifetime, and my past investments, now set back to 2015!

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

This is analogous to 9/11 - a sudden change of the way we lived before and this is a sudden Govt mandated shutdown of the economy.  I think it would be smart for the President to shut down the market for a week - similar to 9/11.  Otherwise, a lot more people will get sick than if the market is closed.

Italy new cases and deaths fell by 15-18% on Sunday.  They started their social shut down on March 11 - it took them 11 days to start decelerating the virus.  Our social shut down started last week and so, getting to March 30 would be useful.  

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Well.. DOW 15,000 and S&P  2000.  Any disagreement?

Gabe

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Not to minimize the fear from the virus and potential death toll, but IMO most of the sustained selling is more about the reality that the economy is already in recession or worse.  Unemployment and debt will skyrocket no matter what type of stimulus package is finally decided on.  The shutdowns will likely get much worse as this spreads.  We could easily see negative 4% GDP next quarter and negative for some quarters after that.

 


@FatKat wrote:

We are well beyond market correction now. I think we are seeing panic investment selling like we did in 2008. This one appears to be going lower. It seems many assume the virus will be a major pandemic that will kill like the plague! Once people see that not every one out of ten will perish from this disease, I will bet the market recovers about 20%, or near half way. People are assuming the worse. once they know rather than have to assume what the consequence will be, the market should stabilize and begin to rise.

 

 


 

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...



why not save yourself time and predict it at 5000?


@youth wrote:

Well.. DOW 15,000 and S&P  2000.  Any disagreement?

Gabe



it down to 5000?

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@bilperk wrote:

Not to minimize the fear from the virus and potential death toll, but IMO most of the sustained selling is more about the reality that the economy is already in recession or worse.  Unemployment and debt will skyrocket no matter what type of stimulus package is finally decided on.  The shutdowns will likely get much worse as this spreads.  We could easily see negative 4% GDP next quarter and negative for some quarters after that.

 


@FatKat wrote:

We are well beyond market correction now. I think we are seeing panic investment selling like we did in 2008. This one appears to be going lower. It seems many assume the virus will be a major pandemic that will kill like the plague! Once people see that not every one out of ten will perish from this disease, I will bet the market recovers about 20%, or near half way. People are assuming the worse. once they know rather than have to assume what the consequence will be, the market should stabilize and begin to rise.

 

 


 


I think you may be correct if there is a vast spread of the virus like in Italy. If it is going to be like a plague, then i feel those getting out of the market with big losses is better than suffering a long depression.

I do not know, but I am not going to sell all my stock investments at this point and erase more than a third growth, yet perhaps that would be prudent?

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@RainGater wrote:

@Bizman wrote:

Yeah, shutting the market is a bad idea.  Better to let it go where it will go and then recover.  I don't believe the market was closed during the 1929 crash or the Great Depression.  It certainly wasn't during the Financial Crisis in 2008-2009.


Yes, shutting the schools, colleges, universities, cities, states, businesses, etc. all make sense. But, not the markets.

Got it!

PS: Yes, they didn't shut the markets during 2008 crisis, but they banned short selling, reinstated uptick rule, etc. to reduce the fear. But, it didn't help and markets lost more than 50%.


And they stand to repeat that same loss.  It’s already baked in at this point.  My view - anything done to “reduce fear” only delays the inevitable.  I’d rather the powers-that-be just let things play out at this point. 

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

@youth Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Well.. DOW 15,000 and S&P  2000.  Any disagreement?

So Gabe, this may be the wrong website to acknowledge reality but agreed, and I believe this qualifies as equivalent to 1918 in scope; tho with the qualifier that we do have Technology now. Yes it feels and looks very f-ing bad. 

It's idealistic to say it's all well within normal bounds of past market crashes/recoveries and aside from positive/hopeful/wishful thinking; I feel i have to do that to conform to the acceptable limits of this particular community.  Who doesn't want this to just fall under the category of a Monte Carlo simulation?  But?  Kinda uncharted waters this time 'round based on my research. Like it or not this is on the order of once-in-lifetime magnitude; not pessimism, just objectivism.

We all  want this thing contained and curve-flattened. Sure doing my part.  I'm also wondering whether to pull most assets into cash.  Who'd have believed with all we know that Politics would STILL "trump" a purely logical response to this. There's got to be some semblance of a  humanitarian element in that response.  Market makers need to embrace that, need to let go of this trickle-down crap.  It's about getting the medical problem fixed, it's about giving the middle class first-responders and small business universe an opportunity to stay on their feet AND feel some reassurance That can trickle up.  Injecting the stimulus strictly into the top-percentile-as-usual isn't the move now. It's no time for playing politics. The opposite is what we need to send a message of economic stability. 

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@mikes425 wrote:
@youth Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Well.. DOW 15,000 and S&P  2000.  Any disagreement?

So Gabe, this may be the wrong website to acknowledge reality but agreed, and I believe this qualifies as equivalent to 1918 in scope; tho with the qualifier that we do have Technology now. Yes it feels and looks very f-ing bad. 

It's idealistic to say it's all well within normal bounds of past market crashes/recoveries and aside from positive/hopeful/wishful thinking; I feel i have to do that to conform to the acceptable limits of this particular community.  Who doesn't want this to just fall under the category of a Monte Carlo simulation?  But?  Kinda uncharted waters this time 'round based on my research. Like it or not this is on the order of once-in-lifetime magnitude; not pessimism, just objectivism.

We all  want this thing contained and curve-flattened. Sure doing my part.  I'm also wondering whether to pull most assets into cash.  Who'd have believed with all we know that Politics would STILL "trump" a purely logical response to this. There's got to be some semblance of a  humanitarian element in that response.  Market makers need to embrace that, need to let go of this trickle-down crap.  It's about getting the medical problem fixed, it's about giving the middle class first-responders and small business universe an opportunity to stay on their feet AND feel some reassurance That can trickle up.  Injecting the stimulus strictly into the top-percentile-as-usual isn't the move now. It's no time for playing politics. The opposite is what we need to send a message of economic stability. 


Unfortunately, it will take multiple of years to get back to even.

Gabe

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Top to bottom, the SP500 fell about 60% in 2007-09.  We have room to go and forecasting where it will end is silly.

But, I'm sure about one thing, the lower it goes the more money we can make on the upside...so, bring it on ;-)

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Not so certain, if it goes down very low, it might remain lower longer than it did in 2008. This time we might be in a long recession. 

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Senate halts $1.8 trillion GOP coronavirus bill over corporate 'slush fund,' worker firing concerns

The Senate voted 47-47 on a $1.8 trillion bill to shore up the economy during the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic, far short of the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who wrote the bill Saturday night, vowed Sunday night to bring it up for a vote again at 9:45 Monday morning, repeatedly daring Democrats to vote against it again as the stock market plummets further.  Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said no.  Negotiations continued overnight.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/904026/senate-halts-18-trillion-gop-coronavirus-bill-over-corporate-s...

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

"But Democrats weren't the only ones concerned that the legislation gives too much to large corporations while demanding too little in return. "Any relief for big corporations must limit executive compensation, ban stock buybacks, and require companies to pay back loans w/ interest. Or I'm not voting for it," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) tweeted. Democrats voiced special concern about the $500 billion available to large companies with little oversight, including $425 million to be doled out at the discretion of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the recipients able to shield their identities for six months."

Mnuchin? "I am going to fly my family around on taxpayer funded private jets", Mnuchin?

A cold day in hell!

This is not about Dems vs Reps, this is about not using a crisis to rob the taxpayers. All of them! Not just the shareowners.

The correct answer to the question of "will your private company be getting bailout money", when posed to a decision maker is "I will refuse to take it", not "I don't know".

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Meanwhile, big reversals on CAT, MMM, CSCO, SBUX, SYY, KO. Many were close to my limit price and have come up +5% in the last 30 minutes @ 8:15 EST. Thought I might get CAT @ 90.75, not looking like it anymore!

FED announced "limitless asset purchases".

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

All my ETFs and CEFs are up except for VDE at this moment. It appears that the 2-trillion new money may make a difference.

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Taking a page out of former ECB Head Draghi playbook ["do whatever it takes"], Fed Chair Powell promises to provide unlimited support or amounts needed to support [without specified limits]. 

Senator Schumer said that differences over corona virus bill may be resolved on 24 hrs.

Futures turned around, of course.

 

YBB
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Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@yogibearbull wrote:

Taking a page out of former ECB Head Draghi [ "do whatever it takes"], Fed Chair Powell promises to provide unlimited support or amounts needed to support [without specified limits]. 

Senator Schumer said that differences over corona virus bill may be resolved on 24 hrs.

Futures turned around, of course.

 


Fed makes 'aggressive' move to back corporate debt markets, Main St.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-calls-third-emergency-meeting-announces-unprecedented-moves-to-ca...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/23/fed-unlimited-credit-coronavirus/?hpid=hp_hp-top-...

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