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Participant ○○

Futures are down again BIG...

DOW is down 950+ again! Wow!

Relentless selling and I think they should shutdown the markets until the virus issue is resolved, IMHO!

In 5 minutes, futures are "locked limit down" now as they are down 5% and that means S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ futures don't trade overnight! Holy smokes!!

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Well, futures can trade about only above [not below] the 5% limit-down price. But yes, this looks bad and we will have another morning of chaos in early pre-market trading when the ETFs such as SPY, DIA will trade without limits/circuit breakers until the regular market hours.   https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500.html

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Participant ○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Fear is everywhere.

I just got back from Martins grocery store, no bread, no milk, looks 10 times worse than any rush/depletion than any snow storm I have seen. It has gripped everybody.

I am transferring all my cash into settlement acct. to be ready for things on sale.

The whole thing is knowing when the market has completely priced in the worst scenario.

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

How likely do you think it is that the market would be closed?  I was thinking the same thought, but then again, that would probably freak people out even more.  Thanks.

Ray

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Participant ○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

Rahm Emanuel

 

Thank you Pelosi for taking advantage of a national disaster to push your democratic agenda. 

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@RMartinezLG wrote:

How likely do you think it is that the market would be closed?  I was thinking the same thought, but then again, that would probably freak people out even more.  Thanks.

Ray


Shutting the market also shuts access to money-market funds at brokerages and fund families. Basically, all investment accounts [taxable, tax-deferred/free] become out of reach. That will create more problems.

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@RMartinezLG wrote:

How likely do you think it is that the market would be closed?  I was thinking the same thought, but then again, that would probably freak people out even more.  Thanks.


If you shutdown the markets, there is nothing to freak about as there is no trading. What is there to freak out? MM funds are other liquid investments should be allowed to take place in lieu of trading as they can always bend the rules!

Yes, people will panic outside of the markets as you can see, the grocery stores that are open are emptied within minutes as is the case now. It's going to another level here and I guess the govt thought that it will all go away (at least, POTUS thought so) but not any more. It's real and you can see the panic in TV as well as the markets.

I hope they shut down the markets but don't think they will and lots of wealth destruction will be in place everyday they let this continue... Time to go into hibernation as whatever you buy, the prices are lower the next day! Even GLD is getting pummeled. So, relentless selling in place... 

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Letting this play out in the markets seems to be the lesser of 2 evils.   If stocks can be "overvalued" (by metrics based on historical averages), then they can be "undervalued" for a time, too.     Can't just have it be a one-way street.

For some investors, this panic creates a perceived buying opportunity.  

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Study up on apocalyptic thinking.

This where quants fail.

Get a degree in the liberal arts and study history, including the history of epidemics.

This is all about human behavior, which cannot be reduced to numbers.

Need a book list?

Bob

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@RainGater wrote:

DOW is down 950+ again! Wow!

Relentless selling and I think they should shutdown the markets until the virus issue is resolved, IMHO!

In 5 minutes, futures are "locked limit down" now as they are down 5% and that means S&P, DOW, and NASDAQ futures don't trade overnight! Holy smokes!!

image.png


Shutting the stock market down would create a bigger panic than existed during the 1929 market crash at a time when the govt is about to pass a massive stimulus law to regain confidence in the economic system. It would also prevent investors who need cash from gaining access to their assets. The only thing worse than a steeply declining stock market is one without liquidity.

who can shut Down the equity markets? 

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Participant ○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

@jadster33 

"Letting this play out in the markets seems to be the lesser of 2 evils. If stocks can be "overvalued" (by metrics based on historical averages), then they can be "undervalued" for a time, too. Can't just have it be a one-way street.

For some investors, this panic creates a perceived buying opportunity."

_______________________________________________________________________________________

I completely agree will this concept.

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Thanks Intruder. 

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Explorer ○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

MID April- it has a way to go!

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Participant ○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@Intruder wrote:
who can shut Down the equity markets? 

What did they do during 9/11? They shut it down for few days... So, they use the same strategy and shut it down for couple of weeks to see whether there is any improvement...

Anyways, I like it to stay open too so that I can get in on the fire sale. The lower it gets, the better it is for me,

The reason why I am saying to shut down the markets is that the longer it stays open, the destruction of wealth grows larger and people will panic more and more... Because, no one likes to see 30 - 50% of their wealth destroyed. It's an endless cycle until it's resolved. It creates another level of stress on the communities where they are already at the highest level of panic already, IMHO!

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Markets can be shut by nature or Presidential order. See some examples    https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/7-events-that-closed-the-nyse/

On the day of 1987 crash, NYSE Chairman Phelan called WH hoping that market can be shut by Presidential directive but his call wasn't even taken by anybody important at Reagan WH.

 

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Participant ○○

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Futures are trading again since they recovered now, not by much - still under 4%. They cannot trade if the losses are more than 5%.

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...


@GLI2019 wrote:

Study up on apocalyptic thinking.

This where quants fail.

Get a degree in the liberal arts and study history, including the history of epidemics.

This is all about human behavior, which cannot be reduced to numbers.

Need a book list?

Bob


Post seems somewhat condescending...IMO.

R48

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

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Valued Contributor

Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Nikkei 225 futures were down -8% but now only -3.75%.   https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/international-index/nikkei-225-yen.html

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Re: Futures are down again BIG...

Yeah, shutting the market is a bad idea.  Better to let it go where it will go and then recover.  I don't believe the market was closed during the 1929 crash or the Great Depression.  It certainly wasn't during the Financial Crisis in 2008-2009.

We need the price signals to kick the politicians into gear.  In many respects, it is a barometer of the faith in our response and the odds of a (hopefully quick) resolution.

We need that feedback to grade the policy and medical response.  If you take away the ability to register the downside, you also don't register the upside recovery when it comes.  

Do we only like markets when they go in the "right" direction?  To shut down the market because some people have terrible investment temperaments is stupid.  Smart people with nerve will be there to pick up bargains like Buffett.  Unless you posit the permanent destruction of the economy.  In that case, stock prices would mean very little, anyway.  And I don't want to lose access to my cash.  Talk about inducing a panic!

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