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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@chang wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@Intruder wrote:
No one cares about 40 year old quotes from Graham they don’t understand. The stocks/sectors that will have the highest returns going forward are Those that will be the most involved in the economic recovery.

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Bob Dylan Nobel Laurate.


By "no one", you mean YOU, right intruder?  Do you ever respond to any post without a snarky answer?


You may not like Intruder’s reply, but that’s no reason to attack him personally. He did not offend you or anyone personally. Just ignore posters who always irritate you.

(I never make a personal attack, but I will defend myself against one, and I make no promises of proportionality.)


 So if you made a simple statement using a quote (with proper attribution) and someone responds "No one cares about  40 year old quotes from Graham they don't understand. [suggesting that no one cares about what you are saying and that you don't understand the quote] you wouldn't find that snarky?  I hadn't addressed the quote to him, but to FD in supporting his statement that "There's not high correlation between the economy,GDP,unemployment and the market in the short term."

I stand by my comment to intruder.  No need for you to escalate it.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

I missed “they don’t understand”. You have a point — error to me. Have at it. (PS. Delighted you've taken that lesson on plagiarism on board!)

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

@bilperk 

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

-----

Don't look now, but I think the Fed has its finger on the scale.

0101y.png

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@norbertc wrote:

@bilperk 

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

-----

Don't look now, but I think the Fed has its finger on the scale.

0101y.png


That looks like a Norman Rockwell illustration.  You should give proper attribution or the academics will accuse you of plagierism:o}

As an aside, my aunt subscribed to the SEP for many years and saved the original covers, with many Rockwell illustrations.  This one is before that time, 1936.  Hers started in the late 40's through the mid 60's.  I was given them many years later.  They are facinating, both the topics the post covered, and the advertisements on the opposite side, like brand new cars for $1500.  

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

Its actually a fairly famous Leslie Thrasher illustration from 1936 called Tipping the Scales.  It looks like a Rockwell since that was the style; she did a lot of covers for SEP.  Her work is currently hot and a copy of that from 1936 sold for over $2,500.  Some of her work is going for over $5,000.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

The Fed has been doing everything its power to inflate asset prices since 2008. I think that's the "wind" that Intruder is referring to. That wind will continue to blow until it doesn't anymore. The market has been saying low interest has to mean growth because it always has. IMHO, watch out for companies that borrow more but can't grow revenues(zombies?), continue to raise or pay high% dividends but can't grow profits or raise prices(oil?).

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@rumples wrote:

Its actually a fairly famous Leslie Thrasher illustration from 1936 called Tipping the Scales.  It looks like a Rockwell since that was the style; she did a lot of covers for SEP.  Her work is currently hot and a copy of that from 1936 sold for over $2,500.  Some of her work is going for over $5,000.


Yes, I see that now on the post cover picture.  Thanks for the catch.  I see he died at age 47 a month after the publication of this picture from the pneumonia as a result of a house fire that destroyed much of his work.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

Sorry, I see both saying the same thing. Recovery will be years in the making, not months, from the sidelines....


@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

― Benjamin Graham

 


No one cares about 40 year old quotes from Graham they don’t understand. The stocks/sectors that will have the highest returns going forward are Those that will be the most involved in the economic recovery.

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Bob Dylan Nobel Laurate.

 


 

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@MNfish wrote:

IMHO, watch out for companies that borrow more but can't grow revenues(zombies?), continue to raise or pay high% dividends but can't grow profits or raise prices(oil?).


Not just Oil. There are several BDCs, whose earnings went south and some even negative (because of the fixed costs) but paying dividends. It is like eating seed corn. How on earth do they survive yet? I do not know but their prices keep going down although the NAVs are still old NAVs before these drops. That means the yields are going up.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@ECEPROF wrote:

US economy contracted by worst-ever 32.9% in Q2.

America's economy just had its worst quarter on record.

Jobless claims top 1M again in latest week as coronavirus keeps battering workers

 


and...let me copy my post again...

Stocks and bonds are doing great in the last 3 months regardless of the virus and the economy. There's not high correlation between the economy,GDP,unemployment and the market in the short term.

QQQ was up today

After hours AAPL,FB +6%  AMZN +5%.


“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”


― Benjamin Graham

 


No one cares about 40 year old quotes from Graham they don’t understand. The stocks/sectors that will have the highest returns going forward are Those that will be the most involved in the economic recovery.

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Bob Dylan Nobel Laurate.

 


+1    I never cared what these clever quotes have to do with the matter at hand?

The most baffling that sometimes it's so easy. The Fed told you they will not raise rates for months to come + they also support bonds. Then there are trillions of support from the government. Then, the FAANGM are making so much money.

Plain translations own FAANGM or easier QQQ. If bonds work for you own bonds. That was easy.

So why would you invest based on these never ending articles by writers, journalists,"experts" that never can predict anything before?

Why would you not listen to the market? Sure, it's not always easy but sometimes it is.

Why would you own T and not MSFT because you insist on higher income stocks?  Why would you own VALUE when growth is doing so good for years?  Why would you own SC, International stocks (just find a reason) when you can use QQQ as your "gamble" money? Why would you be in cash when bonds are doing unbelievable?

The following quotes make more sense to me than Graham :-)

poo.PNG

"Promise me you'll always remember: you're braver than you believe, stronger than you seem and smarter than you think." - Christopher Robin (Winnie The Pooh) Now Quotes, Girl Quotes, Great Quotes, Inspirational Quotes, Simply Quotes, Motivational Quotes, Uplifting Quotes, Daily Quotes, The Words
 
 
 
 
 
When you realize Winnie the Pooh has some of the most heart felt quotes and you stop to think future generations may never grow up with him. I love Winnie the Pooh ! I had a Winnie the Pooh themed nursery! Great Quotes, Me Quotes, Inspirational Quotes, Qoutes, Baby Quotes, Lyric Quotes, The Words, Disney Quotes Tumblr, Disney Quotes About Love
 
 
 
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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@Gary1952 wrote:

Sorry, I see both saying the same thing. Recovery will be years in the making, not months, from the sidelines....


@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

― Benjamin Graham

 


No one cares about 40 year old quotes from Graham they don’t understand. The stocks/sectors that will have the highest returns going forward are Those that will be the most involved in the economic recovery.

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Bob Dylan Nobel Laurate.

 


 


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@bilperk wrote:


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.


The problem is that these lower PE, higher Divvies, value are lagging SPY and QQQ for 10+ years which in my book is a long time to be behind. The question of course, how long is ST and LT?

Even Buffett broke down and bought Apple after decades of saying he would not buy high tech/technology companies(partly because he doesn't understand them)? and now Apple is over 45% of his portfolio.  BTW, is it difficult to understand what these companies really do?

The pandemic shorten the time for business changes from years to months.  This is why technology is so powerful and it's not over yet and the gap between the poor and above average will get bigger. 

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@FD1001 wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.


The problem is that these lower PE, higher Divvies, value are lagging SPY and QQQ for 10+ years which in my book is a long time to be behind. The question of course, how long is ST and LT?

Even Buffett broke down and bought Apple after decades of saying he would not buy high tech/technology companies(partly because he doesn't understand them)? and now Apple is over 45% of his portfolio.  BTW, is it difficult to understand what these companies really do?

The pandemic shorten the time for business changes from years to months.  This is why technology is so powerful and it's not over yet and the gap between the poor and above average will get bigger. 


But the stock market and where is the best place to be is not the issue of the OP.  It is about the economy.  the economy (GDP) down 30+% while the market is on a tear.  you and intruder sound just like all those guys who used to argue with the Diehards in 1999 about large growth and tech being the only place to be.  When it turns, it may not give any warning.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.


The problem is that these lower PE, higher Divvies, value are lagging SPY and QQQ for 10+ years which in my book is a long time to be behind. The question of course, how long is ST and LT?

Even Buffett broke down and bought Apple after decades of saying he would not buy high tech/technology companies(partly because he doesn't understand them)? and now Apple is over 45% of his portfolio.  BTW, is it difficult to understand what these companies really do?

The pandemic shorten the time for business changes from years to months.  This is why technology is so powerful and it's not over yet and the gap between the poor and above average will get bigger. 


But the stock market and where is the best place to be is not the issue of the OP.  It is about the economy.  the economy (GDP) down 30+% while the market is on a tear.  you and intruder sound just like all those guys who used to argue with the Diehards in 1999 about large growth and tech being the only place to be.  When it turns, it may not give any warning.


 Bill

your problem is that you keep looking to the past to predict future returns based on the economy when The issue is simpler - find those sectors of the stock market that will out perform because those sectors will be the ones that will   Generate the highest level of Earnings from the economic recovery. I have picked my sectors and will see how they perform as the economy grows. You can stay in cash and fixed income.

 

 

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.


The problem is that these lower PE, higher Divvies, value are lagging SPY and QQQ for 10+ years which in my book is a long time to be behind. The question of course, how long is ST and LT?

Even Buffett broke down and bought Apple after decades of saying he would not buy high tech/technology companies(partly because he doesn't understand them)? and now Apple is over 45% of his portfolio.  BTW, is it difficult to understand what these companies really do?

The pandemic shorten the time for business changes from years to months.  This is why technology is so powerful and it's not over yet and the gap between the poor and above average will get bigger. 


But the stock market and where is the best place to be is not the issue of the OP.  It is about the economy.  the economy (GDP) down 30+% while the market is on a tear.  you and intruder sound just like all those guys who used to argue with the Diehards in 1999 about large growth and tech being the only place to be.  When it turns, it may not give any warning.


 Bill

your problem is that you keep looking to the past to predict future returns based on the economy when The issue is simpler - find those sectors of the stock market that will out perform because those sectors will be the ones that will   Generate the highest level of Earnings from the economic recovery. I have picked my sectors and will see how they perform as the economy grows. You can stay in cash and fixed income.

 

 


I have no problem.  And again, you sound just like people before the LG and tech crash in 2000.  Have you even considered the possibility that the FAAMG stocks may not have earnings because consumers may not have jobs or stimulus needed to buy their products?  Anyway, the quote I gave was only about short vs long term which virtually everyone believes;  anything can happen in the short term.  Over the long term earnings are the most important factor in return.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@bilperk wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.


The problem is that these lower PE, higher Divvies, value are lagging SPY and QQQ for 10+ years which in my book is a long time to be behind. The question of course, how long is ST and LT?

Even Buffett broke down and bought Apple after decades of saying he would not buy high tech/technology companies(partly because he doesn't understand them)? and now Apple is over 45% of his portfolio.  BTW, is it difficult to understand what these companies really do?

The pandemic shorten the time for business changes from years to months.  This is why technology is so powerful and it's not over yet and the gap between the poor and above average will get bigger. 


But the stock market and where is the best place to be is not the issue of the OP.  It is about the economy.  the economy (GDP) down 30+% while the market is on a tear.  you and intruder sound just like all those guys who used to argue with the Diehards in 1999 about large growth and tech being the only place to be.  When it turns, it may not give any warning.


 Bill

your problem is that you keep looking to the past to predict future returns based on the economy when The issue is simpler - find those sectors of the stock market that will out perform because those sectors will be the ones that will   Generate the highest level of Earnings from the economic recovery. I have picked my sectors and will see how they perform as the economy grows. You can stay in cash and fixed income.

 

 


I have no problem.  And again, you sound just like people before the LG and tech crash in 2000.  Have you even considered the possibility that the FAAMG stocks may not have earnings because consumers may not have jobs or stimulus needed to buy their products?  Anyway, the quote I gave was only about short vs long term which virtually everyone believes;  anything can happen in the short term.  Over the long term earnings are the most important factor in return.


According to analysts AAPL, AMZN, GOOG , FB and MSFT not only account for  22% of the Market cap of SP 500, they also account for 22% of the free cash flow of SP 500. Nobody cares about your quotes from the past.

So Bill, if you really believe that FAANMG stocks may not have the earnings because of lack of jobs or stimulus Needed to buy their products money then you can sell them short And reap the gains. But you will not do that because you don’t believe that theory either so you will continue to take pot shots at other investors asset allocations while you sit on cash and low yielding bonds..

 

 

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.


The problem is that these lower PE, higher Divvies, value are lagging SPY and QQQ for 10+ years which in my book is a long time to be behind. The question of course, how long is ST and LT?

Even Buffett broke down and bought Apple after decades of saying he would not buy high tech/technology companies(partly because he doesn't understand them)? and now Apple is over 45% of his portfolio.  BTW, is it difficult to understand what these companies really do?

The pandemic shorten the time for business changes from years to months.  This is why technology is so powerful and it's not over yet and the gap between the poor and above average will get bigger. 


But the stock market and where is the best place to be is not the issue of the OP.  It is about the economy.  the economy (GDP) down 30+% while the market is on a tear.  you and intruder sound just like all those guys who used to argue with the Diehards in 1999 about large growth and tech being the only place to be.  When it turns, it may not give any warning.


 Bill

your problem is that you keep looking to the past to predict future returns based on the economy when The issue is simpler - find those sectors of the stock market that will out perform because those sectors will be the ones that will   Generate the highest level of Earnings from the economic recovery. I have picked my sectors and will see how they perform as the economy grows. You can stay in cash and fixed income.

 

 


I have no problem.  And again, you sound just like people before the LG and tech crash in 2000.  Have you even considered the possibility that the FAAMG stocks may not have earnings because consumers may not have jobs or stimulus needed to buy their products?  Anyway, the quote I gave was only about short vs long term which virtually everyone believes;  anything can happen in the short term.  Over the long term earnings are the most important factor in return.


According to analysts AAPL, AMZN, GOOG , FB and MSFT not only account for  22% of the Market cap of SP 500, they also account for 22% of the free cash flow of SP 500. 

So Bill, if you really believe that FAANMG stocks may not have the earnings because of lack of jobs or stimulus Needed to buy their products money then you can sell them short And reap the gains. But you will not do that either because you don’t believe that theory either so you will continue to take pot shots at other investors asset allocations while you sit on cash and low yielding bonds..

 

 


Yup, and I'm sure over confident performance chasers saw the same thing in the 500 for the top stocks in 1999.  And this thread isn't about what we should be investing in now or later.  It is about the economic recovery.  You know, businesses and jobs, and when they will come back.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@bilperk wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@bilperk wrote:


The graham quote is not about the recovery, it is simply about the difference between short term and long term.  In the short term, equities that move the market the most are a popularity contest.  Think FAAMG with its very high PE's.  While in the long run, earnings and to some extent dividends will determine which stocks do well and how well the market does.  In the short run, the economy and the markets are not highly correlated, but in the long run, they are.

This is what FD said, but then he comes back and disses a quote that supports his position.  I guess intruder is right, some people don't understand the quote.


The problem is that these lower PE, higher Divvies, value are lagging SPY and QQQ for 10+ years which in my book is a long time to be behind. The question of course, how long is ST and LT?

Even Buffett broke down and bought Apple after decades of saying he would not buy high tech/technology companies(partly because he doesn't understand them)? and now Apple is over 45% of his portfolio.  BTW, is it difficult to understand what these companies really do?

The pandemic shorten the time for business changes from years to months.  This is why technology is so powerful and it's not over yet and the gap between the poor and above average will get bigger. 


But the stock market and where is the best place to be is not the issue of the OP.  It is about the economy.  the economy (GDP) down 30+% while the market is on a tear.  you and intruder sound just like all those guys who used to argue with the Diehards in 1999 about large growth and tech being the only place to be.  When it turns, it may not give any warning.


 Bill

your problem is that you keep looking to the past to predict future returns based on the economy when The issue is simpler - find those sectors of the stock market that will out perform because those sectors will be the ones that will   Generate the highest level of Earnings from the economic recovery. I have picked my sectors and will see how they perform as the economy grows. You can stay in cash and fixed income.

 

 


I have no problem.  And again, you sound just like people before the LG and tech crash in 2000.  Have you even considered the possibility that the FAAMG stocks may not have earnings because consumers may not have jobs or stimulus needed to buy their products?  Anyway, the quote I gave was only about short vs long term which virtually everyone believes;  anything can happen in the short term.  Over the long term earnings are the most important factor in return.


According to analysts AAPL, AMZN, GOOG , FB and MSFT not only account for  22% of the Market cap of SP 500, they also account for 22% of the free cash flow of SP 500. 

So Bill, if you really believe that FAANMG stocks may not have the earnings because of lack of jobs or stimulus Needed to buy their products money then you can sell them short And reap the gains. But you will not do that either because you don’t believe that theory either so you will continue to take pot shots at other investors asset allocations while you sit on cash and low yielding bonds..

 

 


Yup, and I'm sure over confident performance chasers saw the same thing in the 500 for the top stocks in 1999.  And this thread isn't about what we should be investing in now or later.  It is about the economic recovery.  You know, businesses and jobs, and when they will come back.


The difference between now and 1999 is that the dot coms in1999 never had any Earnings to support their lofty valuations. Today FAAMNG and QQQ are delivering increased earnings from the covid recovery. I am not investing in economic sectors that are paralyzed by The covid virus that will not recover for years if ever. The markets will sort out the the haves from the have nots pretty quickly. The economic recovery may not occur In retail, leisure and Airline industries. No reason to Waste  money investing in them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

@bilperk 

"And this thread isn't about what we should be investing in now or later. It is about the economic recovery. You know, businesses and jobs, and when they will come back."

You must be aware that M* in an investment-oriented website?  We're focused on, you know, investing.  Also, investment activity is often considered to be a leading indicator for economic activity, so it's relevant.

As for "business and jobs" (a.k.a. the "economic recovery"), Intruder nailed it.  It's not a generic thing.  Various sectors are suffering badly during the epidemic; others are doing well ...

  • Biotech is up, while tourism is down;
  • Online retail is up, while brick & mortar retail is down.

It's important to, you know, differentiate.

N.

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Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@norbertc wrote:

@bilperk 

"And this thread isn't about what we should be investing in now or later. It is about the economic recovery. You know, businesses and jobs, and when they will come back."

You must be aware that M* in an investment-oriented website?  We're focused on, you know, investing.  Also, investment activity is often considered to be a leading indicator for economic activity, so it's relevant.

As for "business and jobs" (a.k.a. the "economic recovery"), Intruder nailed it.  It's not a generic thing.  Various sectors are suffering badly during the epidemic; others are doing well ...

  • Biotech is up, while tourism is down;
  • Online retail is up, while brick & mortar retail is down.

It's important to, you know, differentiate.

N.


Read the OP.  I was referring to my quote that intruder had such problems with.

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