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Frequent Contributor

Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@ECEPROF wrote:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-fomc-monetary-policy-decision-july-2020-150924227.html\

You do not need any explanation.


That’s about as insightful as saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. It means the fed has no clue on how the recovery will take place and how long it will take.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

Iruder: I did not want to say that but you did.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

I just switched off from the Bloomberg broadcast of Chairman Powell.

I am pleased that such a thoughtful, responsible, plain-speaking person is Chair of the Fed.

He sets a high standard for leadership.

Of particular interest to me is how tactfully he handled questions about fiscal and monetary policy.  The reporters' questions made it clear who is and who isn't at the top of their game and how this affects those folks, as Powell pointed out, who make $40,000 a year or less.

Bob

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Participant ○○

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

It's the same as from the beginning.  Until the virus is under control the economy isn't going to do anything.  Why so many people thought that wishing it away or downplaying it would work boggles my mind. Pretty hard to shop, attend baseball games, hang out at the bars  etc...  Like Bill Gates said...  "It’s tough to tell people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner"

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Explorer ○

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

Just downloaded out credit card bills for this month.  Less than half the normal.  Noticeably absent were any charges for entertainment, restaurants, etc.  First time ever for no gasoline charges.  All charges were for groceries or Amazon, plus a couple of recurring monthly bills.  We go nowhere and do nothing.  We retired in 2007 and have been lurching from crises to crises ever since.  Money saved for our "golden years" and now can't spend it.  Wife complaining (a little) about all the cooking, but at 90 degrees  too hot to eat outside.  Ain't retirement grand!

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Participant ○○

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

The link to the article doesn't seem to work, at least on my system. Taking the title at face value, the argument doesn't necessarily hold true. For it to be true economic performance would need to track the course of the pandemic closely, in either direction. This seems unlikely given some of the irreversible effects and recovery rates. For example, it doesn't necessarily follow that employment will return at a rate commensurate with lower infection rates. Many businesses have become insolvent and won't return. It's even conceivable the economy could recover despite the pandemic.  The virus may be with us for a long time, but the economy adjusts and adapts. There's a causal link between the virus and the economy, but it would be unwise, in my view, to assume the virus will determine economic recovery. We don't even know what a solution to the pandemic looks like. Is it an effective treatment, a vaccine, followed up by an effective global distribution of either, or both? Technical recessions don't usually last long, so in the interim, the economy may fracture, repair, stagnate, or all three. We could even be in recession again next year, yet have found a vaccine.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@Mortmain wrote:

The link to the article doesn't seem to work, at least on my system.

It worked earlier. They have a new article on the news from the FED chair (Powell). This seems to be a better update.

"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on Wednesday that rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. are already showing signs of thwarting the economic recovery."

This is indeed an important news for investors.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@ECEPROF wrote:

@Mortmain wrote:

The link to the article doesn't seem to work, at least on my system.

It worked earlier. They have a new article on the news from the FED chair (Powell). This seems to be a better update.

"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on Wednesday that rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. are already showing signs of thwarting the economic recovery."

This is indeed an important news for investors.


Nope, stocks and bonds are doing great in the last 3 months regardless of the virus and the economy. There's not high correlation between the economy and the market in the short term.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@ECEPROF wrote:

US economy contracted by worst-ever 32.9% in Q2.

America's economy just had its worst quarter on record.

Jobless claims top 1M again in latest week as coronavirus keeps battering workers

 


and...let me copy my post again...

Stocks and bonds are doing great in the last 3 months regardless of the virus and the economy. There's not high correlation between the economy,GDP,unemployment and the market in the short term.

QQQ was up today

After hours AAPL,FB +6%  AMZN +5%.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

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Participant ○

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

As Gpa used to put it, "all dressed up and no place to go".  He was right on the money again.  add, no place to go safely.  Unless you want to pick up a deadly virus or two.  The influenza A i caught a a restaurant in March was enough for me.  I will stay put, maybe the herd can catch immunity in a couple of years, and it will be safe to open the door.

Only good news is my car insurance.  I switched a couple of months back to pay by the mile.  Im saving fifty percent since the car sits in the driveway all week.  That was the only good news for this year.

Yup, it all just depends.  If you want a straight answer to any question look again, all you will hear is  "probably, probably not"  Thats the only answer you will get.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@FD1001 wrote:

@ECEPROF wrote:

US economy contracted by worst-ever 32.9% in Q2.

America's economy just had its worst quarter on record.

Jobless claims top 1M again in latest week as coronavirus keeps battering workers

 


and...let me copy my post again...

Stocks and bonds are doing great in the last 3 months regardless of the virus and the economy. There's not high correlation between the economy,GDP,unemployment and the market in the short term.

QQQ was up today

After hours AAPL,FB +6%  AMZN +5%.


“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”


― Benjamin Graham

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@ECEPROF wrote:

US economy contracted by worst-ever 32.9% in Q2.

America's economy just had its worst quarter on record.

Jobless claims top 1M again in latest week as coronavirus keeps battering workers

 


and...let me copy my post again...

Stocks and bonds are doing great in the last 3 months regardless of the virus and the economy. There's not high correlation between the economy,GDP,unemployment and the market in the short term.

QQQ was up today

After hours AAPL,FB +6%  AMZN +5%.


“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”


― Benjamin Graham

 


No one cares about 40 year old quotes from Graham they don’t understand. The stocks/sectors that will have the highest returns going forward are Those that will be the most involved in the economic recovery.

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Bob Dylan Nobel Laurate.

 

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Participant ○○○

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

Apparently Morningstar and Seeking Alpha are not so dismissive and value the quote from Graham.  

https://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/course.asp?docId=142901&page=7

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4182708-voting-machine-vs-weighing-machine

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@Intruder wrote:

@bilperk wrote:

@FD1001 wrote:

@ECEPROF wrote:

US economy contracted by worst-ever 32.9% in Q2.

America's economy just had its worst quarter on record.

Jobless claims top 1M again in latest week as coronavirus keeps battering workers

 


and...let me copy my post again...

Stocks and bonds are doing great in the last 3 months regardless of the virus and the economy. There's not high correlation between the economy,GDP,unemployment and the market in the short term.

QQQ was up today

After hours AAPL,FB +6%  AMZN +5%.


“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”


― Benjamin Graham

 


No one cares about 40 year old quotes from Graham they don’t understand. The stocks/sectors that will have the highest returns going forward are Those that will be the most involved in the economic recovery.

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Bob Dylan Nobel Laurate.

 


By "no one", you mean YOU, right intruder?  Do you ever respond to any post without a snarky answer?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@rumples wrote:

Apparently Morningstar and Seeking Alpha are not so dismissive and value the quote from Graham.  

https://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/course.asp?docId=142901&page=7

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4182708-voting-machine-vs-weighing-machine

 

 

 


Articles in the financial media always quote financial bromides from long dead investment experts because its the easiest way to put words into text to meet a deadline without being insightful. As For long term performance Keynes reminds us that in the long run we are all dead. The companies and sectors of the US economy that will outperform the others over the next 5+ years will be those that will be the most involved with the economic recovery funded by congress and the federal reserve-the FAANGM, recovery stocks- HD, LOW, WMT, pharma co involved in vaccines for covid, QQQ, large cap growth funds. Recovery is not going to based on increase in the global economy, increase in US manufacturing, lower $ or any of the other bromides tossed around by economists . So I have placed my bet and Will see what happens.





 

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Participant ○○○

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'

Well butter my butt and call me a biscuit, you may have a point when you put it that way.  

Of course, the irony is that while pooh poohing  one quote, another almost as old was given.  But if one has ever been in a Colorado snow storm, you do need a weather man to know which way the wind blows.  With the sun blotted out, its all white.  Its why people get get lost and a few die.  Of course the most tragic might have been the Minnesota "Children's Blizzard" of Jan. 12 to 13, 1888.  Of the 230+ people who died, over half were children, many of whom got lost walking home from school.  (You didn't think you would get by without a bit of history, now did y'all.)

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Fed: Economic recovery will depend 'significantly on the course of the virus'


@bilperk wrote:

@Intruder wrote:
No one cares about 40 year old quotes from Graham they don’t understand. The stocks/sectors that will have the highest returns going forward are Those that will be the most involved in the economic recovery.

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Bob Dylan Nobel Laurate.


By "no one", you mean YOU, right intruder?  Do you ever respond to any post without a snarky answer?


You may not like Intruder’s reply, but that’s no reason to attack him personally. He did not offend you or anyone personally. Just ignore posters who always irritate you.

(I never make a personal attack, but I will defend myself against one, and I make no promises of proportionality.)

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