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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 6/24/20, bearish remained the top sentiment and bullish remained the bottom sentiment. Bull-bear spread was wider.

Survey Results for Week Ending 6/24/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
BULLISH
24.1%
 
-0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
NEUTRAL
27.0%
 
-0.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
BEARISH
48.9%
 
+1.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Participant ○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Average for bearish is 30%. It's been above the average for 17 weeks. Put/call ratio is 0.99 (neutral), VIX remains elevated at above 30 and above its 200 day moving average, advance/decline line is tracking S&P 500 so confirms downward trend. Are we at the beginning of a slow unwind? If covid spikes continue, and 2nd quarter earnings are poor, probably, yes.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on July 1, bearish remained the top sentiment and bullish remained the bottom sentiment. Minor shifts from both were into neutral.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/1/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
BULLISH
22.2%
 
-2.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
NEUTRAL
32.0%
 
+5.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
BEARISH
45.9%
 
-3.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/8/20, bearish remained the top sentiment and bullish remained the bottom sentiment. Bull-bear spread has been coming down.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/8/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
BULLISH
27.2%
 
+5.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
NEUTRAL
30.2%
 
-1.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
BEARISH
42.7%
 
-3.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/15/20, bearish remained the top sentiment and bullish remained the bottom sentiment. Bull-bear spread has been coming down. Neutral sentiment is low.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/15/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
BULLISH
30.8%
 
+3.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
NEUTRAL
23.8%
 
-6.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
BEARISH
45.4%
 
+2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Contributor ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Thanks.

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/22/20, bearish remained the top sentiment and bullish became the bottom sentiment [correction: last week, neutral became the bottom sentiment].

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/22/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
BULLISH
26.1%
 
-4.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
NEUTRAL
27.1%
 
+3.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
BEARISH
46.8%
 
+1.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Participant ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Hi.

Not to change the subject, but on page 4 of the July 2020 issue of AAII, there is an interesting article "How Investing Ability Changes With Age". Being in my 80's, I can see a lot of myself in the article and I have taken heed of the problem. If you are 65 or older, I suuggest you read the article or something similar and not just think that the problem does not apply to you. Being a long term "buy and hold" investor may have an advantage over a "trader" at this age, but both have their risks. My first encounter with this problem was not being able to process new data as rapidly as I could in the past. Fore warned is fore armed Thanks YBB for your contributions.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/29/20, bearish remained the top sentiment [but now high] and bullish remained the bottom sentiment [but now 4-yr low]. Bull-bear spread widened.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/29/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
BULLISH
20.2%
 
-5.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
NEUTRAL
31.3%
 
+4.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
BEARISH
48.5%
 
+1.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

 

Thanks Yogi...

These numbers continue to almost amaze...people bearish during this entire rally.

Remember folks, these numbers are CONTRARY INDICATORS...means do the opposite of the investors, for success.

R48

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 8/5/20, bearish remained the top sentiment [high] and bullish remained the bottom sentiment [low]. Bull-bear spread narrowed.

Survey Results for Week Ending 8/5/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
BULLISH
23.3%
 
+3.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
NEUTRAL
29.1%
 
-2.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
BEARISH
47.6%
 
-0.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Participant ○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

I wonder what motivates a 'Neutral' opinion? Don't know, don't want to know, don't care, could go either way? Can we extrapolate 50:50 bull-bear potential vote from the 29% neutral? If so, that pushes the bears +60%.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey


@Mortmain wrote:

I wonder what motivates a 'Neutral' opinion? Don't know, don't want to know, don't care, could go either way? Can we extrapolate 50:50 bull-bear potential vote from the 29% neutral? If so, that pushes the bears +60%.


Neutral are fence sitters that historically are bulls-in-waiting or dip-buyers. But on sudden bad news, neutral can switch to bears too.

YBB
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Participant ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

YBB.

I agree. I am a fence sitter. What I am following is the vacine news that will in my opinion change all these surveys quickly. So, I will as usual do nothing and keep on looking to see if there is anything I can get out of not having to take RMD's this year. Not as simple as one may think. I suuggest to those who are looking into this to do a lot of homework.

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