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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 1/29/20, a huge flip made bearish the top sentiment and neutral the bottom sentiment. The bull-bear spread went from +20.8 to -4.9 in a week! Spreading coronavirus may be the reason.

Survey Results for Week Ending 1/29/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
32.0%
 
-13.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
31.2%
 
+1.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
36.9%
 
+12.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/5/20, bearish remained the top sentiment and neutral remained the bottom sentiment. All 3 are in 30s and future flip-flops are expected.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/5/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
33.9%
 
+1.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.9%
 
-0.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
35.2%
 
-1.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/12/20, a big shift made bullish the top sentiment and bearish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/12/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
41.3%
 
+7.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
32.3%
 
+1.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
26.4%
 
-8.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/19/20, no significant change. Bullish remained the top sentiment and bearish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/19/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE:38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
40.6%
 
-0.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.8%
 
-1.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
28.7%
 
+2.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/26/20, a major change made bearish the top sentiment and bullish and neutral were tied.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/26/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
30.4%
 
-10.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.4%
 
-0.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
39.1%
 
+10.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/4/20, in spite of a major shift, bearish remained the top sentiment but bullish was close behind; neutral became the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/4/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
38.7%
 
+8.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
21.6%
 
-8.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
39.6%
 
+0.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Quoting from AAII analysis of results received this evening,

"Neutral sentiment is at an unusually low level (more than one standard deviation below the historical average). Historically, such readings have been followed by below-average and below-median returns for the S&P 500 index over the following six- and 12-month periods. This historical evidence is influenced by low readings recorded during the early 1990s recession, the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis."

YBB
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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/11/20, major changes. Bearish remained the top sentiment but it was quite high [above 1 SD from avg]. Neutral remained the bottom sentiment but it was under 20 [below 1 SD from avg]. No records broken yet.

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/11/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
29.7%
 
-9.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
19.0%
 
-2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
51.3%
 
+11.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/18/20, bearish remained the top sentiment [high] and neutral remained the bottom sentiment [very low]. There was some pick up in the bullish sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/18/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
34.4%
 
+4.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
14.5%
 
-4.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
51.1%
 
-0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/25/20, not much change. Bearish remained the top sentiment [high] and neutral remained the bottom sentiment [low].

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/25/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
32.9%
 
-1.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
15.0%
 
+0.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
52.1%
 
+0.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 4/1/20, not much change. The bearish sentiment remained the top sentiment and was elevated while the neutral sentiment remained at the bottom and at unusually low level. 

Survey Results for Week Ending 4/1/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
34.2%
 
+1.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
16.0%
 
+1.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
49.7%
 
-2.3
Percentage point
change from
last week

 

YBB
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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 4/8/20, the bearish sentiment remained the top sentiment and was elevated while the neutral sentiment remained at the bottom and at a low level. 

Survey Results for Week Ending 4/8/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
36.6%
 
+2.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
18.7%
 
+2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
44.7%
 
-5.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Contributor ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Neutral sentiment remained lower than 3/5 reading when AAII analysis was quoted.

It is interesting how over a four week stretch thru last week Bearish sentiment hardly moved while the stock market dove further and recovered to the same level.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bearish-individual-investors-decline-for-2nd-week-with-sp-500-show...

"Bearish sentiment among individual, or retail investors, fell for a second straight week, as the S&P 500 SPX, 1.41%  extended its rally off the near 3 1/2-year closing low on March 23. According to a survey conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), 44.7% were bearish for the week ended April 8, indicating they expected stock prices to fall over the next six months, down from 49.7% the week before. The week before snapped a three-week streak in which more than half of surveyed investors were bearish, according to AAII, culminating in a 7-year high of 52.1% for the week ended March 26. That last time more than half of the investors surveyed were bearish for three weeks in a row was the four-week streak ended March 12, 2009, according to AAII data....."

YBB
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Explorer ○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

 

This weeks survey sounds good. Thanks Yogi for the report.

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Highlighted
Contributor ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Thanks for posting the marketwatch analysis of the AAII data.

The last sentence from the quoted market watch analysis is interesting: "That last time more than half of the investors surveyed were bearish for three weeks in a row was the four-week streak ended March 12, 2009, according to AAII data....."

That makes me think may be the March 23rd lows are it for this cycle.  

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 4/15/20, bearish remained the top sentiment and neutral remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 4/15/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
34.9%
 
-1.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
22.4%
 
+3.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
42.7%
 
-1.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
Highlighted
Participant ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Hi YBB.

I have been an AAII subscriber for 30? years. This time around, I don't look six months ahead with out some caveats; a vaccine or process that will lessen the effect of the virus. If either is not available and we go through this "lockdown" again, tough call. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 4/22/20, bearish remained the top sentiment but bullish became the bottom sentiment [almost tied with neutral].

Survey Results for Week Ending 4/22/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
24.9%
 
-10.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
25.1%
 
+2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
50.0%
 
+7.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
Highlighted
Explorer ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Thanks for continuing to share this information!  In the history of the survey, do you happen to know what was the highest reading for the bearish sentiment?  Also, when was this recorded?

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