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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 1/29/20, a huge flip made bearish the top sentiment and neutral the bottom sentiment. The bull-bear spread went from +20.8 to -4.9 in a week! Spreading coronavirus may be the reason.

Survey Results for Week Ending 1/29/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
32.0%
 
-13.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
31.2%
 
+1.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
36.9%
 
+12.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/5/20, bearish remained the top sentiment and neutral remained the bottom sentiment. All 3 are in 30s and future flip-flops are expected.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/5/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
33.9%
 
+1.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.9%
 
-0.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
35.2%
 
-1.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/12/20, a big shift made bullish the top sentiment and bearish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/12/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
41.3%
 
+7.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
32.3%
 
+1.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
26.4%
 
-8.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/19/20, no significant change. Bullish remained the top sentiment and bearish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/19/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE:38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
40.6%
 
-0.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.8%
 
-1.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
28.7%
 
+2.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 2/26/20, a major change made bearish the top sentiment and bullish and neutral were tied.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/26/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
30.4%
 
-10.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.4%
 
-0.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
39.1%
 
+10.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/4/20, in spite of a major shift, bearish remained the top sentiment but bullish was close behind; neutral became the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/4/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
38.7%
 
+8.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
21.6%
 
-8.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
39.6%
 
+0.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Quoting from AAII analysis of results received this evening,

"Neutral sentiment is at an unusually low level (more than one standard deviation below the historical average). Historically, such readings have been followed by below-average and below-median returns for the S&P 500 index over the following six- and 12-month periods. This historical evidence is influenced by low readings recorded during the early 1990s recession, the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis."

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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/11/20, major changes. Bearish remained the top sentiment but it was quite high [above 1 SD from avg]. Neutral remained the bottom sentiment but it was under 20 [below 1 SD from avg]. No records broken yet.

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/11/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
29.7%
 
-9.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
19.0%
 
-2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
51.3%
 
+11.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/18/20, bearish remained the top sentiment [high] and neutral remained the bottom sentiment [very low]. There was some pick up in the bullish sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/18/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
34.4%
 
+4.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
14.5%
 
-4.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
51.1%
 
-0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 3/25/20, not much change. Bearish remained the top sentiment [high] and neutral remained the bottom sentiment [low].

Survey Results for Week Ending 3/25/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
32.9%
 
-1.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
15.0%
 
+0.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
52.1%
 
+0.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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