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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 10/24/19, neutral remained the top sentiment, and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 10/23/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
35.6%
 
+2.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
36.1%
 
+0.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
28.3%
 
-2.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 10/30/19, neutral remained the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 10/30/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
34.0%
 
-1.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
37.6%
 
+1.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
28.4%
 
+0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 11/6/19, bullish became the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 11/6/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
40.3%
 
+6.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
35.8%
 
-1.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
23.9%
 
-4.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
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Explorer ○○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

It is always interesting to look at the results of the various AAII surveys but there are so many unknowns about who is participating in the surveys  (fund investors?, traders? long time vs short time readers, etc). The AAII had a study sometime ago that showed that the survey results were really a contrarian view.

I have to admit I look at the results but would never act on them because I do very little buying and selling, only mutual funds (no ETFs, no individual stock shares, no individual bonds, no alternatives, etc). Long time retired and far better off than I ever expected to be, probably due more to luck than skill.

I don't know whether AAII collects the data but it would be interesting to know what fraction of those responding to the surveys are the same people week after week vs different people. In particular does a respondents expectation affect the likelihood of their participating?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey


@DEM wrote:

It is always interesting to look at the results of the various AAII surveys but there are so many unknowns about who is participating in the surveys  (fund investors?, traders? long time vs short time readers, etc). The AAII had a study sometime ago that showed that the survey results were really a contrarian view.

I have to admit I look at the results but would never act on them because I do very little buying and selling, only mutual funds (no ETFs, no individual stock shares, no individual bonds, no alternatives, etc). Long time retired and far better off than I ever expected to be, probably due more to luck than skill.

I don't know whether AAII collects the data but it would be interesting to know what fraction of those responding to the surveys are the same people week after week vs different people. In particular does a respondents expectation affect the likelihood of their participating?


Those are individual investors. Only few 100s participate from 100K+ members. Results are similar to other sentiment surveys, including the comments at M*. Sentiment surveys are contrary indeed.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 11/13/19, bullish remained the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 11/13/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
40.7%
 
+0.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
34.5%
 
-1.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
24.8%
 
+0.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 11/20/19, neutral became the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 11/20/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
34.2%
 
-6.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
36.7%
 
+2.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
29.0%
 
+4.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 11/27/19, neutral remained the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 11/27/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
33.6%
 
-0.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
36.1%
 
-0.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
30.3%
 
+1.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 12/4/19, neutral remained the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 12/4/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
31.7%
 
-1.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
39.2%
 
+3.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
29.1%
 
-1.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 12/11/19, bullish became the top sentiment [overtaking neutral] and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 12/11/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
37.6%
 
+5.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
36.3%
 
-2.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
26.1%
 
-3.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 12/18/19, the bullish remained the top sentiment [and above average; 14.5-mo high] and the bearish remained the bottom sentiment [and well below average but not close to breaking any records; 8-mo low].

Survey Results for Week Ending 12/18/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
44.1%
 
+6.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
35.4%
 
-0.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
20.5%
 
-5.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 12/25/19, bullish remained the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 12/25/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE:38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
41.9%
 
-2.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
36.6%
 
+1.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
21.5%
 
+1.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Explorer ○○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

To yogibearbull

I note that you regularly post the AAII sentiment poll results. Would you care to comment on the value and/or usefulness of those polls? AAII doesn't publish any information about how the polls are conducted, e.g. is it approximately the same group of people responding each week, what fraction of AAII members participate? AAII does mention  that the poll is a "contrarian indicator" and the Journal Editor once published an article with an analysis justifying that claim.

I have to admit that I frequently do look at the poll results both on the AAII website and in the printed Journal but I have never used the poll results to make an investment decision (neither for buying nor selling). I wonder if others do use it that way?

The sentiment poll is conducted weekly (as opposed to the Asset Allocation poll which is monthly), I think it would be interesting to post a graph of the results against time (for different time periods, e.g. last month, last twelve months, last five years perhaps). Do investors really change their sentiment in a one week time interval?

The poll supposedly reflects what will happen in six months but I suggest it more likely represents how respondents feel about the past six months.

A couple more thoughts; is the poll more reflective of "traders" or "buy and hold", those who buy shares of individual companies or those who buy mutual funds or those who buy ETF's?

How about the distribution of ages; e.g. those still working vs those that are retired?

I note that the Asset Allocation poll lumps shares of individual companies with mutual funds/ETF's, likewise bonds of individual issuers vs bond funds.

I have no axe to grind on any of these points

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Good questions.

Typically, only a few hundred AAII members [out of 150,000+ total] participate. It is not a fixed group as any member can participate. As a sentiment indicator, it is useful at extreme values which may signal turning points. Readings can jump around a lot as sentiments/moods can change rapidly. High reading are in 50s-60s, low readings are in 10s; another way to look at high and low readings is average +/- 1SD. It is done weekly [Thursday-Wednesday] and results are also reported here at M*, in Barron's and several other places. There are other sentiment surveys that are weekly or monthly.

I find that AAII Survey results have similarity with the sentiments/moods indicated by M* posters in their OPs or replies.

FWIW, I don't participate in the Survey itself [I do get many reminders] but just report on it. I am a Life Member of AAII.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 1/1/20, neutral became the top sentiment, and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 1/1/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
37.2%
 
-4.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE:31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
40.9%
 
+4.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
21.9%
 
+0.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Participant ○○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Thanks Yogibearbull,

I was wondering whether the sentiment surveys have ever exhibited a contrary indicator that you know of, or does it always follow or predict the market?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 1/8/20, neutral remained the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment. All 3 are now in 30s [rounded], so some flip-flops are expected soon.

Survey Results for Week Ending 1/8/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
33.1%
 
-4.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
37.0%
 
-3.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
29.9%
 
+8.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 1/15/20, due to a big shift bullish became the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 1/15/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
41.8%
 
+8.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.7%
 
-6.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
27.5%
 
-2.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 1/22/20, bullish remained the top sentiment [at 15-mo high] and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 1/22/2020

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
45.6%
 
+3.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
29.6%
 
-1.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
24.8%
 
-2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Hmmmm...yellow flag going up.

I recently started making some stock fund sales to support yr2020 RMD/IRA distributions.

R48

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