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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/10/19, the order remains the same - top sentiment neutral, botton sentiment bearish.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/10/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
33.6%
 
+0.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
38.9%
 
+4.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
27.5%
 
-4.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/17/19, bullish became the top sentiment by a tiny margin, while bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/17/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
35.9%
 
+2.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
35.4%
 
-3.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
28.6%
 
+1.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/24/19, a flip-flop. Neutral became the top sentiment and bullish became the bottom sentiment. With all in 30s, future flip-flops are expected.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/24/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
31.7%
 
-4.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
36.2%
 
+0.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
32.0%
 
+3.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/31/19, a flip-flip - bullish became the top sentiment and bearish became the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/31/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
38.4%
 
+6.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
37.5%
 
+1.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
24.1%
 
-8.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending 8/7/19, a huge change - bearish became the top sentiment by far, and bullish became the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 8/7/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
21.7%
 
-16.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.1%
 
-7.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
48.2%
 
+24.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Results of AAII Sentiment Survey [Th-W] are available on Thursday morning and I try to post those then. By Thursday evening, I get an email from AAII reporting and analyzing the results, and if there is something notable, I add comments via Edit. But I will just quote AAII on the huge change this week:

".....Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 16.8 percentage points to 21.7%. Optimism was last lower on December 12, 2018 (20.9%). Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.5% for the 24th time this year.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 7.4 percentage points to 30.1%. Neutral sentiment was last lower on January 23, 2019 (30.0%). The drop ends an 11-consecutive-week streak of readings above the historical average of 31.0%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 24.1 percentage points to 48.2%. Pessimism was last higher on December 26, 2018 (50.3%). Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 10th time in 13 weeks.

Bullish sentiment is at an unusually low level, while bearish sentiment is at an unusually high level. Historically, the S&P 500 index has experienced above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually low readings....."

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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Thanks...very bullish indications!

R48

 

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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 8/14/19, not much change: Bearish remained the top sentiment and bullish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 8/14/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
23.2%
 
+1.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
32.0%
 
+1.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
44.8%
 
-3.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 8/21/19, changes were not enough to alter the order: Bearish remained the top sentiment, bullish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 8/21/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
26.6%
 
+3.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
33.6%
 
+1.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
39.7%
 
-5.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

 

Bumping thread with a thanks, ybb

R48

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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 8/28/19, not much change. Bearish remained the top sentiment, bullish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 8/28/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
26.1%
 
-0.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
31.7%
 
-2.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
42.2%
 
+2.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 9/4/19, not much change: Top sentiment remained bearish, bottom sentiment remained bullish.

Survey Results for Week Ending 9/4/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
28.6%
 
+2.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
31.9%
 
+0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
39.5%
 
-2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 9/11/19, a huge shift made neutral the top sentiment and bearish the bottom sentiment. All 3 sentiments are in 30s, so flip-flops are ahead.

AAII website was down for most of the morning and it just came on.

Survey Results for Week Ending 9/11/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
33.1%
 
+4.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
35.6%
 
+3.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE:30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
31.3%
 
-8.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Participant ○○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Yogibearbull,

Thank you for your countless contributions to many forums.

Your post indicates that the data represents the view of “members”. Who
are the “members”? In other words, are members financial advisors,
investors, or anyone who joins their organization. If it’s anyone who
joins, I wonder what their demographics look like from a professional and
educational perspective.
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Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey


@cegibbs wrote:
Yogibearbull,

Thank you for your countless contributions to many forums.

Your post indicates that the data represents the view of “members”. Who
are the “members”? In other words, are members financial advisors,
investors, or anyone who joins their organization. If it’s anyone who
joins, I wonder what their demographics look like from a professional and
educational perspective.

Those are AAII members. Any individual can join AAII. There are about 150,000 AAII members. Participation in AAII Survey Sentiment is voluntary and participation rate is low - few hundreds only. FWIW, I am a Life Member and I don't participate in the Survey [did it a few times early on]. I just follow the Survey results.

https://www.aaii.com/join/indexb?listcode=WJOINB123

YBB
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 9/18/19, neutral remained the top sentiment and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 9/18/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
35.3%
 
+2.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
36.8%
 
+1.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
27.8%
 
-3.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 9/25/19, neutral remained the top sentiment, but bullish became the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 9/25/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
29.4%
 
-6.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
37.4%
 
+0.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
33.3%
 
+5.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 10/2/19, bearish became the top sentiment although, if rounded, it was same as neutral [previously the top sentiment]. Bullish remained the bottom sentiment but fell to low 20s [readings in low 20s and below 20 are considered unusually low].

Survey Results for Week Ending 10/2/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
21.4%
 
-8.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
39.2%
 
+1.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
39.4%
 
+6.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 10/9/19, the ordering remained the same - bearish at the top [Edit: highest since 8/14/19], bullish at the bottom [Edit: lowest since 5/25/16]. While the high and low numbers look concerning, they are not close to breaking any records.

Survey Results for Week Ending 10/9/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.0%
 
 
BULLISH
20.3%
 
-1.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
35.7%
 
-3.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
44.0%
 
+4.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
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Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Late.

For the week ending on 10/16/19, a total flip-flop - neutral at top, bearish at bottom.. All are in 30s.

Bullish: 33.6%, up 13.3 points
Neutral: 35.3%, down 0.4 points
Bearish: 31.1%, down 12.9 points

YBB
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