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yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

AAII Sentiment Survey

http://www.aaii.com/SentimentSurvey

Old Discuss Thread 11/1/12-5/2/19.     https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/315302/3332170.aspx#3332170

For the week ending on 5/1/19, Neutral was barely the top sentiment as the bullish sentiment almost caught up. Bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 5/1/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.2%
 
 
BULLISH
39.0%
 
+5.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE:31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
39.6%
 
-6.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE:30.3%
 
 
BEARISH
21.3%
 
+1.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
45 Replies
Bond100
Explorer ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Good info,thanks Yogi

cegibbs
Participant ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Yogibearbull,

Your contributions to the M* forums continuous to be exceptional and unequaled.  Many thanks for everything you do for everyone on these forums.

yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 5/8/19, bullish became the top sentiment, and bearish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 5/8/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.2%
 
 
BULLISH
43.1%
 
+4.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
33.7%
 
-5.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.3%
 
 
BEARISH
23.2%
 
+1.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
margaret
Explorer ○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

yogi, can you view the kudos?  i like the ability to like something w/o commenting, but i'm not sure you can view who is giving them to you...

0 Kudos
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey


@margaret wrote:

yogi, can you view the kudos?  i like the ability to like something w/o commenting, but i'm not sure you can view who is giving them to you...


Yes, I can. Thanks.

YBB
0 Kudos
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

What happened? May be frustration on trade issues and related market moves? For the week ending on 5/15/19, the Survey totally flipped: Bearish became the top sentiment and bullish the bottom sentiment. 

Survey Results for Week Ending 5/15/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.2%
 
 
BULLISH
29.8%
 
-13.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
30.9%
 
-2.8
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.3%
 
 
BEARISH
39.3%
 
+16.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 5/22/19, neutral became the top sentiment and bullish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 5/22/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.2%
 
 
BULLISH
24.7%
 
-5.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
39.2%
 
+8.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.3%
 
 
BEARISH
36.1%
 
-3.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 5/29/19, bearish became the top sentiment and bullish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 5/29/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.2%
 
 
BULLISH
24.8%
 
+0.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.5%
 
 
NEUTRAL
35.1%
 
-4.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.3%
 
 
BEARISH
40.1%
 
+4.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

AAII site was offline for a while but is now back on.

For the week ending on 6/5/19, the bearish remained the top sentiment and the bullish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 6/5/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
22.5%
 
-2.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
34.9%
 
-0.2
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
42.6%
 
+2.5
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
Bond100
Explorer ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Thanks for the info Yogi.

0 Kudos
ResearchMed
Explorer ○○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey


@Bond100 wrote:

Thanks for the info Yogi.


Yes, YBB.  This is always appreciated.

Question:  Is there any analysis about whether/how the AAII Sentiment correlates with future market returns (also past, but that's a different question).  Is there anything that is sort of like a lagging graph pattern?  Or?

Thanks again!

RM

yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

@ResearchMed . AAII Sentiment Surveys are contrary indicators and are useful as turning points when at extreme levels. Problem is that you won't know that if you don't watch them regularly. 

YBB
ResearchMed
Explorer ○○○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey


@yogibearbull wrote:

@ResearchMed . AAII Sentiment Surveys are contrary indicators and are useful as turning points when at extreme levels. Problem is that you won't know that if you don't watch them regularly. 


Thanks.

Is there any graphic representation of this anywhere?  Or other data presentation showing this?

VERY much appreciate all of your posts!

RM

0 Kudos
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

@ResearchMed , here are some links but I don't know if they are open:

https://www.aaii.com/journal/article3/analyzing-the-aaii-sentiment-survey-without-hindsight

https://www.aaii.com/journal/article3/is-the-aaii-sentiment-survey-a-contrarian-indicator

FWIW, AAII membership is only $29/yr with a free monthly AAII Journal. With membership, one gets access to more extensive data that what I post.

YBB
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 6/12/19, neutral became the top sentiment while bullish remained the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 6/12/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
26.8%
 
+4.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
39.0%
 
+4.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
34.2%
 
-8.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For week ending on 6/19/19, no big change - neutral remained the top sentiment, bullish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 6/19/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
29.5%
 
+2.7
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
38.4%
 
-0.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
32.1%
 
-2.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
YBB
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 6/26/19, little change - neutral remained the top sentiment, bullish the bottom sentiment.

Survey Results for Week Ending 6/26/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
29.6%
 
+0.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
38.4%
 
-0.0
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
32.1%
 
-0.1
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
0 Kudos
yogibearbull
Valued Contributor

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

For the week ending on 7/3/19, neutral remained the top sentiment but bearish became the bottom sentiment. All 3 were bunched up in 30s, expect more order flip-flops.

Survey Results for Week Ending 7/3/2019

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

 

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
 
 
BULLISH
33.2%
 
+3.6
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
 
 
NEUTRAL
34.5%
 
-3.9
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
 
 
BEARISH
32.4%
 
+0.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
 
YBB
longameyes2
Explorer ○

Re: AAII Sentiment Survey

Many Thanks!!

0 Kudos
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