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Contributor ○○○

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

 

It's been quite a ride!

"The first quarter of 2020 saw the S&P 500 fall 19.6%.
The second quarter of 2020 saw the S&P 500 rise 20.5%.
The first quarter of the year was so bad and the second quarter of the year was so good that both fall into the top 10 for the best/worst quarters ever since 1926."

Link

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@Kings60Man wrote:

I don't know what people are celebrating about. This 'BEST QUARTER' is due to unprecedented fiscal & monetary stimulus by borrowing from the FUTURE. But I guess it doesn't matter anymore.


I Heard the same thing after federal reserve began pouring $3T into the economy in 2009 to keep it from collapsing. The risk then was that inflation would run rampant and prevent growth. Instead there were 11 years of economic growth and 4x increase in stocks while inflation remained below 2% for 9 years.

this time the US government is borrowing $3T from the federal reserve at less than 1.5% to pay unemployed workers and provide funds to businesses to prevent them from closing which would result in the loss of millions of jobs. As for borrowing from the future there is no requirement that the US government repay the federal reserve and Each year the fed will return 80% of the interest it receives on US treasury debt it owns to the Treasury.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

The latest bipartisan CBO report:

CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January. The annual unemployment rate, which was projected to average 4.2 percent, is now projected to average 6.1 percent.Screenshot_2020-07-03 An Update to the Economic Outlook 2020 to 2030 Congressional Budget Office.png

 

CBO projects that if current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remain in place, the economy will grow rapidly during the third quarter of this year. Real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at a 12.4 percent annual rate in the second half of 2020 and to recover to its prepandemic level by the middle of 2022.The unemployment rate is projected to peak at over 14 percent in the third quarter of this year and then to fall quickly as output increases in the second half of 2020 and throughout 2021.

Great Job, well done.

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Explorer ○○○

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

So the S&P is now up about just less than 5%  for the TTM period ?  Yesterday in the IRA, I sold 35 EXC shares to partially finance a 70 share purchase of EVRG.  So my 29% cap gain AND the TTM dividends has made that nuke waste entity a nice investment.  S&P up <5% and continuously hitting strong resistance at the 3135 to 3150 range.  Another dip in the Summer doldrums setting in after next W/E leaves us where?  2960?  2850? 

A lot of cash on the sidelines that could come in ....  A lot of it instead going to houses that offer piggy bank status via HELOC and reverse mortgaging.  Some more of it going into GOLD as it becomes increasingly clear that the US has absolutely no exit strategies from Fiscal and Monetary policy profligacy.  The third option of having your "BUCK" guaranteed by FDIC vs the US ZIRP morphing into NIRP. That then possibly leading to a general shortage of US $100 bank notes.  Many gold buyers prefer to have physical ownership of some or most of their gold.  Recently palladium went to $3K/OZEE, of course Gold going to $2400 by the end of 2021 is probably not likely ??? But then maybe it just as very likely that TINA, FOMO and MOMO make a move on gold ?  Maybe Andy Jackson can make a come back on a US $500 bank note.   $500 banknotes? Well who woulda thought ten year ago that some ATMs would start spewing out $50 bank notes if requested?   Without the$500 bak notes coming soon down the road. will the US fiat currency still be able to compete with gold on a pure physical volume basis.  SIPIC will insure your money market funds but NOT their "BUCK".  

Sell in May and Go away only works 80% of the time if you eliminate the rigidity of re-entering in Oct,  instead of re-entering into the Summer Doldrums. Works even better if you start fading the markets in Late April. 

It is now Biden's to lose and he could do a redux of Hillary.   But the US Senate is now also vulnerable to a socialist takeover.   The closer we get to Nov the more dangerous the markets get.  Even the Tech themes could be bad bruised.  They woulda coulda split their stocks but they liked the notoriety of single shares being worth +$500 to well over $4K.  The kind of high visibility that a socialist regime will feel an obligation to punish and break up.  

No Paul Volkers on the horizon that I can see.  Powell acted too quickly in 2018 and then lost his conviction altogether. Next they will resort to not measuring inflation and increase the size of the lists of volatile items that they do not allow to be measured. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

I'm concerned with the impact the Coronavirus is and will have on the world economies.

I'm very concerned with the increase in civil unrest we are seeing throughout this country, and all the while these individuals are likely receiving unemployment or Welfare and have already cashed their $1200 check. This country is changing and likely not for the good of all.

I'm in a position where I don't have to take extra risk with my portfolio balance at this time and I'm facing other issues that require attention. 

My trust is in a higher power.

Best to all

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@NomasDOZ wrote:

So the S&P is now up about just less than 5%  for the TTM period ?  Yesterday in the IRA, I sold 35 EXC shares to partially finance a 70 share purchase of EVRG.  So my 29% cap gain AND the TTM dividends has made that nuke waste entity a nice investment.  S&P up <5% and continuously hitting strong resistance at the 3135 to 3150 range.  Another dip in the Summer doldrums setting in after next W/E leaves us where?  2960?  2850? 

A lot of cash on the sidelines that could come in ....  A lot of it instead going to houses that offer piggy bank status via HELOC and reverse mortgaging.  Some more of it going into GOLD as it becomes increasingly clear that the US has absolutely no exit strategies from Fiscal and Monetary policy profligacy.  The third option of having your "BUCK" guaranteed by FDIC vs the US ZIRP morphing into NIRP. That then possibly leading to a general shortage of US $100 bank notes.  Many gold buyers prefer to have physical ownership of some or most of their gold.  Recently palladium went to $3K/OZEE, of course Gold going to $2400 by the end of 2021 is probably not likely ??? But then maybe it just as very likely that TINA, FOMO and MOMO make a move on gold ?  Maybe Andy Jackson can make a come back on a US $500 bank note.   $500 banknotes? Well who woulda thought ten year ago that some ATMs would start spewing out $50 bank notes if requested?   Without the$500 bak notes coming soon down the road. will the US fiat currency still be able to compete with gold on a pure physical volume basis.  SIPIC will insure your money market funds but NOT their "BUCK".  

Sell in May and Go away only works 80% of the time if you eliminate the rigidity of re-entering in Oct,  instead of re-entering into the Summer Doldrums. Works even better if you start fading the markets in Late April. 

It is now Biden's to lose and he could do a redux of Hillary.   But the US Senate is now also vulnerable to a socialist takeover.   The closer we get to Nov the more dangerous the markets get.  Even the Tech themes could be bad bruised.  They woulda coulda split their stocks but they liked the notoriety of single shares being worth +$500 to well over $4K.  The kind of high visibility that a socialist regime will feel an obligation to punish and break up.  

No Paul Volkers on the horizon that I can see.  Powell acted too quickly in 2018 and then lost his conviction altogether. Next they will resort to not measuring inflation and increase the size of the lists of volatile items that they do not allow to be measured. 


In July 1984 Newsweek published a poll showing Walter Mondale was 18 points ahead of president Reagan. We all know how accurate that poll was.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

All in all an amazing quarter.

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