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Frequent Contributor

2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."

YBB
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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

Great Quarter, but it's sandwiched between where we've come from(Dow 29k) and where we're going(Covid19's impact on the economy). I'm guessing more than a few investors locked in some gains, or at the very least are building cash rather than hoping aboard The Q 2,  destination unknown.

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@youth wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe


Yes vs DJIA and SP500, but not vs Nasdaq Comp.  https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$DAX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$SPX&id=p13182204604

YBB
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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

Have we recovered back to the previous peak earlier this year?

I am taking all cash distributions in the past two months and paying off some loans. They are becoming due one after another. I don't think that anybody expected this type of roller coaster. I will still own 6-month mortgage payment for the condo due in another 4 months. Will I ever get out of debt?

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

Just stay your own course.

Don't try to be someone other than yourself. 

Bob

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@ECEPROF wrote:

Have we recovered back to the previous peak earlier this year?

I am taking all cash distributions in the past two months and paying off some loans. They are becoming due one after another. I don't think that anybody expected this type of roller coaster. I will still own 6-month mortgage payment for the condo due in another 4 months. Will I ever get out of debt?


While this is about Q2, it is a good question. Highs were in Q1 around 2/19/20. For Nasdaq Comp, yes, we are above, but not for the others [charts from 2/19/20- now may default to 1-yr in a few days].   https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p60461803959

YBB
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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

Thanks Yogi for the charts. I will be interested in the wider market, perhaps S&P 500 because my main investment is VTI. VTI is down by 8,22% in your chart compared to S&P 500 of 8.44. Close enough. My KIO is down by about 10% and PCI is down by 17%. But, I made some cash in BDCs because I bought them at the bottom. All in all, we are yet to up some.

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@ECEPROF wrote:

Have we recovered back to the previous peak earlier this year?

Definitely not.

 

 

 


 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@youth wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe


Dax is -7.08% YTD while Nasdaq is up 16.91%. Dax only up 23.9% in Qtr 2 while QQQ was up 30.6%.

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe


Dax is -7.08% YTD while Nasdaq is up 16.91%. Dax only up 23.9% in Qtr 2 while QQQ was up 30.6%.


Intruder:  Stay in the right lane!  I was only comparing the DAX to the DOW for the 2nd Q.

Gabe

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@youth wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe


Dax is -7.08% YTD while Nasdaq is up 16.91%. Dax only up 23.9% in Qtr 2 while QQQ was up 30.6%.


Intruder:  Stay in the right lane!  I was only comparing the DAX to the DOW for the 2nd Q.

Gabe


There are no lanes in investing. Only infallible rule is buy low, sell high.

I provided a comparison for first 6 months of 2020 which demonstrates that Nasdaq And QQQ out performed crappy German Stocks.

If you cant stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Or pull off the road.

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe


Dax is -7.08% YTD while Nasdaq is up 16.91%. Dax only up 23.9% in Qtr 2 while QQQ was up 30.6%.


Intruder:  Stay in the right lane!  I was only comparing the DAX to the DOW for the 2nd Q.

Gabe


There are no lanes in investing. Only infallible rule is buy low, sell high.

I provided a comparison for first 6 months of 2020 which demonstrates that Nasdaq And QQQ out performed crappy German Stocks.

If you cant stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Or pull off the road.


That was not the question.  Again, it was the DOW vs. DAX.....ONLY

You were crossing the lane!  

Gabe

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@youth wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe


Dax is -7.08% YTD while Nasdaq is up 16.91%. Dax only up 23.9% in Qtr 2 while QQQ was up 30.6%.


Intruder:  Stay in the right lane!  I was only comparing the DAX to the DOW for the 2nd Q.

Gabe


There are no lanes in investing. Only infallible rule is buy low, sell high.

I provided a comparison for first 6 months of 2020 which demonstrates that Nasdaq And QQQ out performed crappy German Stocks.

If you cant stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Or pull off the road.


That was not the question.  Again, it was the DOW vs. DAX.....ONLY

You were crossing the lane!  

Gabe


Go ahead, make my day.

Other than both indexes consisting of 30 stocks the two indexes are constructed differently which is why changes in their values cannot be compared. Dow consists of 30 large cap blue chip US companies, but not the largest . The performance of the Dow is influenced by both corporate and economic reports and foreign and domestic events that can lead to economic harm. Dow is a price weighted Index or average which means it is a scaled average. The value of the index is not the actual average of the prices of its components but the sum of the component stock prices decided by a divisor which is not constant. As a price weighted index higher priced stocks get more influence over their lower priced counterparts. Dow takes no account of market capitalization of the component stocks.

The DAX on the other hand measures the performance of the prime standard’s 30 largest companies in terms of order book volume and market capitalization. 

Comparing the two indexes is like Comparing apples and oranges.

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

The question is: What does it all mean? Are markets accurately forecasting a V-shaped recovery, or are they dislocated from the economy and reacting to the Fed? If it's the former then green shoots should be appearing. If it's the latter worse is to come. Another way to ask those questions is if you somehow had acquired $250,000 in cash today, would you put it in any or all of these indexes? If not, why not, and where would you put it?

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@Mortmain wrote:

The question is: What does it all mean? Are markets accurately forecasting a V-shaped recovery, or are they dislocated from the economy and reacting to the Fed? If it's the former then green shoots should be appearing. If it's the latter worse is to come. Another way to ask those questions is if you somehow had acquired $250,000 in cash today, would you put it in any or all of these indexes? If not, why not, and where would you put it?


Since I don't need another $250K to live on, I would keep it in the money mkt until I saw that the Covid19 threat was in the past and the economy was correcting and at that time add to one of my active funds...……..likely VWIAX, VLAAX or PIMIX.

I posted this some time back, Mort:

I don't agree at all with the blanket statement "The time to invest in the market is when you have funds available".
Most of us have funds available, but to just buy into any market makes no sense in my opinion. There was a train leaving just a few months ago that was heading to Dow 30K. You remember where that train ended up? Yep, Dow 18,591.
Granted, there were any number of reasons why that little train may have been delayed(we all should know them), but those things were not taken into consideration at the time of departure. Are we in another situation currently where it might be wise to sit back and wait before continue to place all available funds into investments? Who knows! I'm inclined to listen to all sources of information and then decide for myself.
I have encouraged my sons and daughters to ignore the noise and dollar-cost average into their investments. But, when it comes to investors that have portfolios that will support their future needs they shouldn't be throwing caution to the wind by following blindly the suggestions of others.

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@Mortmain wrote:

The question is: What does it all mean? Are markets accurately forecasting a V-shaped recovery, or are they dislocated from the economy and reacting to the Fed? If it's the former then green shoots should be appearing. If it's the latter worse is to come. Another way to ask those questions is if you somehow had acquired $250,000 in cash today, would you put it in any or all of these indexes? If not, why not, and where would you put it?


How can markets forecast a V shaped recovery when 40% of companies have ceased or cancelled forward guidance because of the uncertainty of the impact that covid will have on their future operations? There is no reliability in any experts forecast of how the economy will perform over next 6-12 months which is why best picks are FAANGM, recovery stocks and pharma. Investing in indexes is futile because a lot of stocks and sectors In the indexes will be under performers or worse due to a lack of customers or suppliers. 

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA


@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@Intruder wrote:

@youth wrote:

@yogibearbull wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

".....The Dow gained 17.8% in the second quarter, posting its best quarter since 1987 [33 years], while the S&P 500 finished the period with a near 20% gain, its best since 1998 [22 years]. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999 [21 years]....."


The DAX had better second quarter.  

Gabe


Dax is -7.08% YTD while Nasdaq is up 16.91%. Dax only up 23.9% in Qtr 2 while QQQ was up 30.6%.


Intruder:  Stay in the right lane!  I was only comparing the DAX to the DOW for the 2nd Q.

Gabe


There are no lanes in investing. Only infallible rule is buy low, sell high.

I provided a comparison for first 6 months of 2020 which demonstrates that Nasdaq And QQQ out performed crappy German Stocks.

If you cant stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Or pull off the road.


That was not the question.  Again, it was the DOW vs. DAX.....ONLY

You were crossing the lane!  

Gabe


Go ahead, make my day.

Other than both indexes consisting of 30 stocks the two indexes are constructed differently which is why changes in their values cannot be compared. Dow consists of 30 large cap blue chip US companies, but not the largest . The performance of the Dow is influenced by both corporate and economic reports and foreign and domestic events that can lead to economic harm. Dow is a price weighted Index or average which means it is a scaled average. The value of the index is not the actual average of the prices of its components but the sum of the component stock prices decided by a divisor which is not constant. As a price weighted index higher priced stocks get more influence over their lower priced counterparts. Dow takes no account of market capitalization of the component stocks.

The DAX on the other hand measures the performance of the prime standard’s 30 largest companies in terms of order book volume and market capitalization. 

Comparing the two indexes is like Comparing apples and oranges.


Very good explanation....

Gabe

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

And the best quarter in 33, followed the worst one in 60 years, so its still down........

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Re: 2020/Q2 Was the Best Quarter in 33 Years for DJIA

I don't know what people are celebrating about. This 'BEST QUARTER' is due to unprecedented fiscal & monetary stimulus by borrowing from the FUTURE. But I guess it doesn't matter anymore.

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