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post-COVID19 ideas

Hi, all!

It's been a very long time since my last post. I am recently retired, as is my wife. So far we are living on our SS benefits and my small pension, not having to dip into retirement investments. Hopefully, we will not have to use them until RMD age kicks in in a few years.

In our various portfolios we have a lot of Wellesley fund (over 50% totall), plus several other stock funds tilted towards value and a couple bond funds, including TIPs.

Reading and listening to different professionals, it seems like a couple ideas are crystallizing:

-Market may be going up in Q2 (which it did, then started dropping...). But eventually, the reality and huge stimulus debt will start catching up with economy and it may slide into a long W or even L-shaped recovery.

-Growth funds will keep outperforming value even more post-COVID.

-Emerging markets funds are better positioned compared to US. The reasoning: they are used to struggling and to rapidly changing demand and logistics shifts. Like, they can adopt better to different supply chain.

Based on that, I am keeping an eye on the market, possibly with an idea of selling a lot of positions and sitting on cash, trying to ride out the expected long and painful recovery. Also, possibly re-allocating towards more growth and emerging market. As a very arbitrarily sell signal, I set it to S&P500 reaching 3300, maybe I will lower it now.

Any input would be great.

 

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Re: post-COVID19 ideas


@umniy2000 wrote:

Based on that, I am keeping an eye on the market, possibly with an idea of selling a lot of positions and sitting on cash, trying to ride out the expected long and painful recovery. Also, possibly re-allocating towards more growth and emerging market. As a very arbitrarily sell signal, I set it to S&P500 reaching 3300, maybe I will lower it now.

 

Your assessment may be all correct; but it is timing/predicting the market (maybe timing it correctly). 

I would take a wait-and-see approach and do the selling/re-allocating gradually (e.g., DCAing in investing) instead of all-at-once abruptly. Just an input.  

 


 

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Re: post-COVID19 ideas

If I had that much on VWIAX, I would tilt towards growth, not value,  as Wellesley has a value tilt.

I think the FAANG stocks will remain strong, even with future downturn in the market.  Look also at healthcare and consumer defensive stocks.

Emerging markets is probably a good bet. 

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