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Frequent Contributor

The virus during retirement

Premise - The most vulnerable to die from the virus are those over 60, increasing with age.

Conversely, we are the ones LEAST vulnerable to the economic effects of loosing a job.  Being baby boomers, our retirement economic conditions are set.  We all rely on Social Security and/or pensions and/or retirement portfolios.  Most of us don't worry anymore about a real, inflation adjusted 4% rate of retirement withdrawal lasting 30 more years!

Likewise, we are the easiest to isolate, socially or otherwise, from EVERYONE, infected or not.  I can think of very few people, family included, who I want to be closer than 6 feet to these days.  There is no virus in the house where we live.  Nobody visits us anymore and hasn't, since the Christmas holidays.

We get cabin fever.  We get it every year.  Some of us go south for the winter.  This year, we stopped in West Virginia for 15 days and didn't get infected.  Might spend more time there next year.  Lots of healthy Mountain Mamas running around there, with moonshine jugs in the back of their trucks.

Whenever we get it while in isolation this month, we still head south to West Virginia, filling up on cheap gas in Ohio, crossing the river, and getting a 6 buck lunch at Dairy Queen in Chester, WV.  A quick off-road trek on the way home and we are fat, dumb, and happy for the day.

I don't worry, or care, about those under 60.  The next generation down, my kids, are safe and secure.  Ditto for my grandkids.  My kids know what they are doing.  I raised them.  They are doing a good job with the next generation out of the pipeline.  At any rate, I don't worry or care ifn they DO get the virus.  Chances are they won't die from it.  They never partied over Spring Break.  They laugh at the 'Survival of the Fittest' mentality bumping against the Darwin Awards.

I think the economic bark these days is way worse then the medical virus bite.  It's darn near impossible to maintain the socially acceptable 6 feet distance in the mega cities but most people NOT living in same, in flyover country, usually maintain 10 times that amount, even in NORMAL times.

It makes little sense to shut down the economy by closing businesses.  Those most at risk no longer work.  Easy peesy to keep us socially isolated.  See above.  Let all others, under 60, return to work.  Keep businesses open.  Ifn you get the virus, you'll be over it in 2 weeks, more than likely.  If those of us OVER 60 happen to get it, send us on a two week cruise on one of those hospital ships and be done with it.  Either we return with a tan or you can bury us at sea!

A word to the wise is sufficient.  Bonds.  James Bonds.  Bonds for income.  Stocks for income.

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande!

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
167 Replies
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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

There is not a scintilla of knowledge or fact behind this post.  Under your plan, millions will get this infection and 100s of thousands will die.  The health care system will be overloaded, then overwhelmed, then basically non-existent.  There is some evidence that younger folk are getting this at a higher rate than seen in China perhaps because of widespread vaping here and in Italy.  A lot of them will die also if we open up the businesses.  And even if we did, most all workers would be infected and the business would have close anyway.

Please stick to convincing folks that as long as your yield is higher than your withdrawal, one can't run out of money.  That is BS too, but at least everyone sees it as such. 

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Explorer ○

Re: The virus during retirement

Today is my first day of retirement after 35 years in healthcare business. I see the chaos and ignorance , media is not helping and fuel the fire. I do agree what the writer say, I am 60 with medical condition, but I am not worry about this virus but my kids. do. We are bloomers and mostly financially stable with pension/investment or whatever. Do call those senior regularly and see how they are doing. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@ElLobo wrote:

It makes little sense to shut down the economy by closing businesses. 


 

 Very naive. As hard as it was, we had to layoff 289 employees last week. It was the responsible thing to do even though very costly. I do not want to be the cause of a single death. The higher the number of humans in a confined area, the higher the percentage of infections, PERIOD!

"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.---Warren Buffett"

veni vidi vici vti
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Contributor ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement


@oreobonbon wrote:

Today is my first day of retirement after 35 years in healthcare business. I see the chaos and ignorance , media is not helping and fuel the fire. I do agree what the writer say, I am 60 with medical condition, but I am not worry about this virus but my kids. do. We are bloomers and mostly financially stable with pension/investment or whatever. Do call those senior regularly and see how they are doing. 


As with most subjects the truth lies between what is reported and what is fact. The idiot governor of CA insists that 1/2 the population will become infected. I do not believe that for one minute. However this is to say coronavirus must be taken seriously.

As far as Italy goes, I have read that the mobility and family closeness cause coronavirus to spread quickly. Travel between city work locations and family is very prevalent there.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

The "idiot" Governor of CA, is listening to the projection from the spread models being run by public health professionals.  The Spanish flu infected 1/3 of Americans.  Why do you think you know more than they do?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@oreobonbon wrote:

Today is my first day of retirement after 35 years in healthcare business. I see the chaos and ignorance , media is not helping and fuel the fire. I do agree what the writer say, I am 60 with medical condition, but I am not worry about this virus but my kids. do. We are bloomers and mostly financially stable with pension/investment or whatever. Do call those senior regularly and see how they are doing. 


Welcome to the M* forums, @oreobonbon 

As a medical person, you might find this of some interest: Scientists figure out how new coronavirus breaks into human cells

Or this, in terms of conspiracy theories: The coronavirus did not escape from a lab. Here's how we know.

By the way, take both of these with how many grains of salt you want/need.  I am NOT providing any validation for any of the information.  Use at your own risk, obviously!

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

As a retiree my goal was to meet my financial goals. And I have done just that!

Late last year when the noise was DOW up, up and away to uncharted waters, or "I expect good news which will cause the markets to rise rather than fall" I was ignoring these ideas that was being frequently posted.

Early last year I was moving money into CDs and the money mkt by de-risking our portfolios and at the same time buying a few individual stocks that could be managed daily.

It won't be the retiree that will feel the impact of the current situation as much as it will be the younger generation....and they may pay dearly. Most of my generation have learned to ignore the noise, and invest on their own goals in mind.

There are needy out there that can use our support and that is where my time and $$$ is going.

Out

 

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Explorer ○

Re: The virus during retirement

What I think is common sense and practice safe distant, wash hand, wash hand and wash hand. Do not hoard medical supply and save for our healthcare professional in need.  My daughter in law owe business but has to shut down because she does not want her employee get infected or vice versa. It is a very hard choice to make. We need to support community and united no matter what.  I lost over 20% my 401k for this pass few weeks, I lost  more in 2008 but bounce all back plus some more.I am fortunate to have pension, what I  have been doing is to stop watching CNBC and watch more netflex, read morningstar more often. Personally, I do not want to take advantage for this situation, that is just me. My kids just inherit less money:)

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Explorer ○○

Re: The virus during retirement

"It won't be the retiree that will feel the impact of the current situation as much as it will be the younger generation....and they may pay dearly. Most of my generation have learned to ignore the noise, and invest on their own goals in mind."

If we are talking about job loss, I agree.

If we are talking about investments, I disagree.

Except for those very close to retirement, let's say within 10 years, non-retirees have time to rebuild their investment portfolios.

For retirees who NEED income from their portfolios, this is sure to be a trying time. 

Having participated in these forums over a long period of time, I believe investing is as difficult for retirees as it is for anyone else. 

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Participant ○○

Re: The virus during retirement

 

Didier Raoult, MD, PhD, did a small study suggesting HCQ is efficacious re coronavirus.

TV's Dr Oz is funding a randomized trial at Columbia of HCQ.  

Teva Pharma is donating 6 m tablets.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement

Much more so for retirees IMHO.


@seh1981 wrote:

"It won't be the retiree that will feel the impact of the current situation as much as it will be the younger generation....and they may pay dearly. Most of my generation have learned to ignore the noise, and invest on their own goals in mind."

If we are talking about job loss, I agree.

If we are talking about investments, I disagree.

Except for those very close to retirement, let's say within 10 years, non-retirees have time to rebuild their investment portfolios.

For retirees who NEED income from their portfolios, this is sure to be a trying time. 

Having participated in these forums over a long period of time, I believe investing is as difficult for retirees as it is for anyone else. 


 

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Participant ○○

Re: The virus during retirement

I have seen experts advocate for ElLobo's position. It is definitely a minority opinion, but it is an opinion some hold. An example is this editorial in the Washington Post from a few days ago. One of the authors is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Two sentences from the editorial:

"the best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based."

It was also widely reported that the UK was considering such a strategy at one point. 

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Contributor ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement

I only object to idiot governor quoting the worst case scenario. Well the worst case is 100% death. Does it really serve a purpose to panic the imbeciles that hoard TP etc? I refuse to delegate my common sense to newsoms. Why predict an outcome before it is time. Models (data) are only so accurate and can be made to forecast anything. I prefer to listen to the Faucis and he has never said 50% will get infected. It will get worse and do the 5 things to stop the spread is enough to preach.


@bilperk wrote:

The "idiot" Governor of CA, is listening to the projection from the spread models being run by public health professionals.  The Spanish flu infected 1/3 of Americans.  Why do you think you know more than they do?


 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@Academic wrote:

I have seen experts advocate for ElLobo's position. It is definitely a minority opinion, but it is an opinion some hold. An example is this editorial in the Washington Post from a few days ago. One of the authors is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Two sentences from the editorial:

"the best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based."

It was also widely reported that the UK was considering such a strategy at one point. 


My guess is that it's the majority opinion for at least half of those doing nothing much more, in retirement, then sitting at our laptops doing M* and Facebook!  8-))

Seriously, I believe this opinion/position is what Trump is advocating with his 15 day plan, although I haven't read it.  Trump isn't the one to require businesses to close.  That comes from state governors.  It was interesting to hear fredo corona cuomo's comments yesterday on the role of the federal government in all of this compared to the state government compared to local government.

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

El Lobo,

After reading this today, I have to STRONGLY DISAGREE with you!!! I like you as a poster and person, but this is BS.

As a Physician, I am seeing a dramatic increase in cases flocking to our emergency dept., and having to hospitalize MANY of them. If their fever/ cough/ Shortness of breath is NOT too bad, we're sending them back home (after testing for Coronavirus) with instructions to return if their SOB worsens. We have only recently gotten ENOUGH test kits, but still a significant "turnaround" time for results. Our Govt. SCREWED up in not addressing this as a serious issue, ultimately there will be a LOT of seriously ill people. And it's NOT just the "elderly" over 60 crowd, some of the individuals have been younger, or those with medical issues (COPD, Asthma, Diabetes, heart disease, Pulmonary fibrosis, etc.). And I myself am in that "higher risk crowd"- age 61 with HTN and past cardiac issues. So I'm having to be extra careful myself. 

Our ICU is nearly full, we're keeping people overnight in the Post Anesthesia Recovery Room (PACU) now (like an overflow ICU), and have had to cancel nearly all elective surgeries. So far, we've been "lucky" here in SC, but it's increasing every day. It's going to get WORSE, A LOT WORSE, before we see this turn the corner. And posts like yours just perpetuate the mistaken belief that this is "just another bad cold or flu". IT IS NOT, so STOP posting junk on the internet, people need to take this seriously!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Win
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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

No it isn't 100% as some have already recovered.  Estimates are from 30-80% infected.  No one knows at this point.  I would rather have him scare the Hell out of everyone so they stay in and do what is being recommended.  That might get us 30% or even lower.  Here in Florida, the Governor diddled around for days while spring breakers crowded our beaches.  Then he closed them.  Guess what?  Those folks are now coming home to all the States they came from.  Expect a lot of infections and sadly, a lot of passing infections to others.


@Gary1952 wrote:

I only object to idiot governor quoting the worst case scenario. Well the worst case is 100% death. Does it really serve a purpose to panic the imbeciles that hoard TP etc? I refuse to delegate my common sense to newsoms. Why predict an outcome before it is time. Models (data) are only so accurate and can be made to forecast anything. I prefer to listen to the Faucis and he has never said 50% will get infected. It will get worse and do the 5 things to stop the spread is enough to preach.


@bilperk wrote:

The "idiot" Governor of CA, is listening to the projection from the spread models being run by public health professionals.  The Spanish flu infected 1/3 of Americans.  Why do you think you know more than they do?


 



 

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Participant ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement

The spring break beach crowd could be a good test case to see if Vitamin D is beneficial against COVID-19 infections. A researcher should track them to find out.

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Participant ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement

Up until yesterday, Mecklenburg County, NC, which includes Charlotte refused to even give out statistical data on infections and even the number of tests given.  Now they have: they have 80 confirmed cases, at least one in every zip code in the area with community exposure. This was at the same time that a surgeon in the area revealed he had tested positive.  

The Public Health Director, Gibbie Harris, has stated that half are between 20 and 39 with one 19 year old infected; residents 60 and older make up 17.5% of their cases.  They are now considering a shelter in place order. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@Win1177 wrote:

El Lobo,

After reading this today, I have to STRONGLY DISAGREE with you!!! I like you as a poster and person, but this is BS.

As a Physician, I am seeing a dramatic increase in cases flocking to our emergency dept., and having to hospitalize MANY of them. If their fever/ cough/ Shortness of breath is NOT too bad, we're sending them back home (after testing for Coronavirus) with instructions to return if their SOB worsens. We have only recently gotten ENOUGH test kits, but still a significant "turnaround" time for results. Our Govt. SCREWED up in not addressing this as a serious issue, ultimately there will be a LOT of seriously ill people. And it's NOT just the "elderly" over 60 crowd, some of the individuals have been younger, or those with medical issues (COPD, Asthma, Diabetes, heart disease, Pulmonary fibrosis, etc.). And I myself am in that "higher risk crowd"- age 61 with HTN and past cardiac issues. So I'm having to be extra careful myself. 

Our ICU is nearly full, we're keeping people overnight in the Post Anesthesia Recovery Room now (like an overflow ICU), and have had to cancel nearly all elective surgeries. So far, we've been "lucky" her in SC, but it's increasing every day. It's going to get WORSE, A LOT WORSE, before we see this turn the corner. And posts like yours just perpetuate the mistaken belief that this is "just another bad cold or flu". IT IS NOT, so STOP posting junk on the internet, people need to take this seriously!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I do take it seriously, much more than some.  My question, rhetorical to you, is if you think the bark is worse than the bite, in terms of economic damage coming down the pike, in terms of a decrease in MORTALITY, not infection, rates resulting from those herculean efforts?  Not to get political but I observe that, each day, on average, 2,500 fetuses are aborted at clinics in this country.

This isn't a Facebook posting.  It's on an investment forum.

A month ago, the way to 'stay safe' was/is to maintain a 6 foot socially acceptable distance away from everyone.  We've gone, today, to mandatory stay at home quarantine enforced by military reserve troops, with all businesses essentially shut down.

We'll see, in a few weeks probably, whether or not the sky fell, both medically as well as financially?

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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