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Contributor ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement

"I don't think that's correct. If the demand for ICU beds and ventilators greatly exceeds supply (which is looking more certain by the day), then lives can be saved by stretching the epidemic out."

But in my example the treatment is for symptoms...not the virus. So the next logical question is how much a difference will ICU's/hospital beds have over treating the symptoms at home by family members using the medical guidelines provided. If this were a viral infection involving a large loss of bodily fluids (vomit/diarrhea/sweating), then fluid replacement would be the primary treatment and the ICU or skilled nursing would certainly make a difference. If the virus were depleting the body of its immune response as Spanish Flu did, then antibiotics would logically make a difference from a hospital bed. But with COVID-19, the ICU, if I understand correctly, has to do with lower respiratory congestion and associated difficulty in breathing requiring a respirator. If this is the center of treatment for most admissions, how much of an improvement is the respirator over home supportive treatment. What percent of those in respiratory distress would be in the same condition with another viral infection?

Now, the answer here may be that respirators will be crucial to saving otherwise healthy individuals who would not be in this condition were it not for COVID-19.....or it may be that in the big picture, respirators make only a small difference over at home care.

I'm taking no position on this, other than asking the question.

BruceM

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Participant ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement

A vaccine to prevent infection for this virus is expected to be available 12-18 months from now, so the best public health strategy is to suppress the spread until a vaccine is available. That has demonstrated to be isolate from the spreaders. Since the virus is mammalian in origin, mammals can be spreaders with human beings having the most contact with each other. So social distancing is important. Especially as the virus passes from one host to another, mutations emerge, make a single vaccine ineffective against the new version/strain. There is no universal flu shot, as an example. Conceivably there could be one, but there isn't one now.

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Explorer ○○

Re: The virus during retirement

Thank you Win1177!  I am a retired Registered Nurse, and not have seen nothing like this virus before. This is not a common cold or flu. This is a deadly virus that does not discriminate. Even 2 dogs have been reported to having COVID-19.  Please people follow instructions from WHO and CDC and stay home. Also just announced on the news that 1000 Spring Brakers  now have  been exposed to the coronovirus.

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Explorer ○○

Re: The virus during retirement


@ElLobo wrote:

"Do you think DT would have a chance of wining again if he follows your point of view and people start dying in mass due to COVID-19?"

Politics aside, DT isn't closing down any businesses, state governors are.  DT is proposing stimuli to help the American people.  The number of people that die will be high, or low, as conditions evolve.  DT won't be blamed for those deaths.


You did not answer my question. If he follows your plan and tells everybody let's get back to work in order to save business do you think he'll win again? Your answer paints him as just just been an spectator throwing money at the problem and making governors responsible for people's deaths.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

@Poorfolio 

Yes, regardless of whether he follows my 'plan' or not!  So do almost 60% of Americans, as of yesterday, with politics set aside now!  8-))

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

"the brain is an amazing organ. It starts working in a mother’s womb and it doesn’t stop working til you get elected to Congress.”

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@outandabout wrote:

"the brain is an amazing organ. It starts working in a mother’s womb and it doesn’t stop working til you get elected to Congress.”


What most are forgetting is that politicians, at ALL levels, are making both medical and financial decisions wrt the virus, the economy, and the financial system.  Thank God there is a businessman sitting at the desk where the buck stops!  8-))

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

Hey Gary,

Did you notice Dr. Fauci was not at tonight's press conference after contradicting our great leader over the weekend?  I guess you may not be listening to Dr. Fauci anymore.  Banished for failure to genuflect?   Expect Hannity to trash him tonight.  Same scenario, different victim.


@Gary1952 wrote:

 Why predict an outcome before it is time. Models (data) are only so accurate and can be made to forecast anything. I prefer to listen to the Faucis and he has never said 50% will get infected. It will get worse and do the 5 things to stop the spread is enough to preach.



 


 

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Contributor ○○○

Re: The virus during retirement

Fauci has not been at every press conference. Bill your bias is starting to show. 

I only have antenna TV and streaming with no news channels. Please report back soon once you add to Sean’s ratings. 

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Participant ○○

Re: The virus during retirement

Well, as an MD practicing in hospitals and with a PhD in Immunology with a decade of Virology research under my belt, I am better qualified than most to comment. I saw my first patient with a positive test for COVID-19 today - and expect more in the next few days based on what my Emergency Dept colleagues are seeing.

I think 30-70 % of the population getting COVID-19 this year is likely, even with the social distancing/stay at home orders.  Even at the low end (30%) that translates to about 100 million Americans.  80-90%% asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, but 10-20% needing hospitalization still leaves us with 10-20 million needing admission - that is a lot.  Worse, 20% of the hospitalized need ICU care, with ventilators. All the hospitals in America cannot handle that volume.  For years, in every hospital I've been on staff, we've been struggling to accommodate all the patients who need ICU care - who will all still be needing care - COVID-19 or no COVID-19. If we can flatten the curve, we might restrict the deaths.  If the curve is a sharp peak I can see 1000,000 deaths - some of whom will be COVID-19 patients, some will be patients with other problems who don't get the care they need because the COVID-19 patients are using the finite resources available.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@SJ60 wrote:

Well, as an MD practicing in hospitals and with a PhD in Immunology with a decade of Virology research under my belt, I am better qualified than most to comment. I saw my first patient with a positive test for COVID-19 today - and expect more in the next few days based on what my Emergency Dept colleagues are seeing.

I think 30-70 % of the population getting COVID-19 this year is likely, even with the social distancing/stay at home orders.  Even at the low end (30%) that translates to about 100 million Americans.  80-90%% asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, but 10-20% needing hospitalization still leaves us with 10-20 million needing admission ........

 


Wow! That is a lot of folks in the hospital! I guess you would know and thanks for the heads up. I rather thought it would get bad; the market has priced in something very bad! I have to admit I was overconfident our science would repel this virus before it made much of an effect in the USA.  Wishful thinking, or a national sense of invulnerability? I do not think lifting any sanction just to get the country back to work makes sense? If you are correct, this will be a little scary.

I am no baby boomer! It seems at my age, if I get sick it's going to be pretty bad. I hope my beneficiaries say invested?

@bilperk wrote:



or beer and sex...

 

No beer for me, all else in moderation....:")

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

@SJ60 

Is that number of hospital deaths expectations 100k or 1 million?  How does that compare to last year?  And is that virus deaths or total deaths?

Also, whenever the CDC says that there were an estimated 23,000 to 59,000 flu deaths this year, does that mean deaths where the deceased had the flu, regardless of the actual cause of death, which I assume?

I am not being a smarta**.  I really want to understand the statistics.

ElLobo, de la casa de la toro caca grande
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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@SJ60 wrote:

Well, as an MD practicing in hospitals and with a PhD in Immunology with a decade of Virology research under my belt, I am better qualified than most to comment. I saw my first patient with a positive test for COVID-19 today - and expect more in the next few days based on what my Emergency Dept colleagues are seeing.

I think 30-70 % of the population getting COVID-19 this year is likely, even with the social distancing/stay at home orders.  Even at the low end (30%) that translates to about 100 million Americans.  80-90%% asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, but 10-20% needing hospitalization still leaves us with 10-20 million needing admission - that is a lot.  Worse, 20% of the hospitalized need ICU care, with ventilators. All the hospitals in America cannot handle that volume.  For years, in every hospital I've been on staff, we've been struggling to accommodate all the patients who need ICU care - who will all still be needing care - COVID-19 or no COVID-19. If we can flatten the curve, we might restrict the deaths.  If the curve is a sharp peak I can see 1000,000 deaths - some of whom will be COVID-19 patients, some will be patients with other problems who don't get the care they need because the COVID-19 patients are using the finite resources available.  


Since you are doctor and an immunologist who  claims to be better qualified to comment than the deplorables who inhabit this board, could you give us the scientific basis for your calculation that 30-70% of the population, 96-228 million people, are likely to become infected with corona virus this year, taking into account that world wide claims are only 364,000 including China with a population of 1.5B whose new claims have subsided.  

Pardon my skepticism but your fantasy number seems to have come out of the playbook of CA governor Newsom who predicted last week that precisely 56% of the residents of CA, 25.5 million people would become infected with the corona virus within an 8 week period he did not identify.  At that time the total number of virus claims was less than 700. The excuse for his number was to get more federal aid

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Participant ○○

Re: The virus during retirement

The 100k+ deaths I'm expecting would be people with COVID-19 who will mostly die of respiratory failure with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) due to the Coronavirus. While influenza does cause  ARDS, the majority of influenza deaths are due to a secondary bacterial pneumonia. I'm not sure about how exactly CDC defines an influenza death.  

Also, early US data is that there a lot of patients being admitted who are in their 30's and 40's. The US epidemic seems to be following the Italian course, rather than the Chinese/SKorean course. 

We can survive an economic crisis, even one lasting a decade plus (the Great Depression). But if the worst case scenarios come true, many of us will not survive - literally. So, social distancing and self isolation are key.  The best case if all these measures attenuate the epidemic and critics later say "we did all this for nothing".  Let us keep out fingers crossed.

 

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Re: The virus during retirement


e@SJ60 wrote:

The 100k+ deaths I'm expecting would be people with COVID-19 who will mostly die of respiratory failure with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) due to the Coronavirus. While influenza does cause  ARDS, the majority of influenza deaths are due to a secondary bacterial pneumonia. I'm not sure about how exactly CDC defines an influenza death.  

Also, early US data is that there a lot of patients being admitted who are in their 30's and 40's. The US epidemic seems to be following the Italian course, rather than the Chinese/SKorean course. 

We can survive an economic crisis, even one lasting a decade plus (the Great Depression). But if the worst case scenarios come true, many of us will not survive - literally. So, social distancing and self isolation are key.  The best case if all these measures attenuate the epidemic and critics later say "we did all this for nothing".  Let us keep out fingers crossed.

 


In your OP you referred to 100 million persons being infected with COVID 19 this year. I asked about the basis for a minimum 100 million people becoming infected.  Why are you switching numbers? Or are you confused.

In your OP you referred to 1000,000 deaths. Is that correct? 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

I thought he was saying 100 million would be infected and 100 thousand would be dead?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@FatKat wrote:

I thought he was saying 100 million would be infected and 100 thousand would be dead?


In his OP he said if there was a sharp peak there would be 1000,000 deaths. I don’t know what he meant.

to have 100,000,000 infected persons by year end would mean an average of 11,000,000+ corona virus claims  a month. 

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Participant ○○

Re: The virus during retirement

We're not testing everyone! That is why the numbers are so low.  They only count the positive tests. To conserve testing resources most state departments of health are specifically asking us to NOT test suspected cases except for a) hospitalized patients and b) health care workers.  That 30-70% of the population is pretty much what every leading epidemiologist has said.  We have a novel virus, to which no one has immunity, capable of airborne spread during the asymptomatic phase, with lots of people who only have asymptomatic infection.  Add in the fact that the sensitivity of the tests is only 80% or so, so one out of 5 people who has the infection will have a negative test. I'm not an epidemiologist, but with 40 years in Medicine it is not surprising I have a deeper understanding of those models than the average person.  I've every right to express my opinion.  Feel free to ignore it.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement

Look whose talking.  I just made an observation.  We will see.  Based on the pattern over and over and over again for 3 years, he is likely gone, if not now, soon


@Gary1952 wrote:

Fauci has not been at every press conference. Bill your bias is starting to show. 

I only have antenna TV and streaming with no news channels. Please report back soon once you add to Sean’s ratings. 


.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The virus during retirement


@SJ60 wrote:

We're not testing everyone! That is why the numbers are so low.  They only count the positive tests. To conserve testing resources most state departments of health are specifically asking us to NOT test suspected cases except for a) hospitalized patients and b) health care workers.  That 30-70% of the population is pretty much what every leading epidemiologist has said.  We have a novel virus, to which no one has immunity, capable of airborne spread during the asymptomatic phase, with lots of people who only have asymptomatic infection.  Add in the fact that the sensitivity of the tests is only 80% or so, so one out of 5 people who has the infection will have a negative test. I'm not an epidemiologist, but with 40 years in Medicine it is not surprising I have a deeper understanding of those models than the average person.  I've every right to express my opinion.  Feel free to ignore it.  


So you are saying there will be 11,000,000 new infected persons a month in the US for the next nine months  when globally there have been only 364,000 virus claims.

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