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Frequent Contributor

@waffle wrote:

India just banned some 60 Chinese apps. Also banned Huewai from govt contracts. More business decoupling in progress. 

My guess - China does not care.


This is a result of India-China border tensions bubbling up with several casualties recently after years/decades of uneasy truce.

YBB
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Contributor ○○○

The 29 Jun issue of Bloomberg Businessweek has a very interesting and informative article pertaining to investing in China, titled "The Bubble That Never Pops".  Anyone thinking about investing in China might want to read it.  I get the actual magazine, so all I can do is let folks know it's out there.  

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@rhythmmethod wrote:

@chang wrote:

MATFX has been on a tear, @rhythmmethod. I’m glad I bought it, but I wish I’d been bolder and more a larger starting position. I added once after my initial buy. On the next dip, I’ll add again.

I always tell myself that I’ll add $X on the next “big dip”, but when that dip comes, I invariably add only around 20-25% of what I told myself I would do.


@chang  Yep, one of my many 'sell the drama' mistakes. I'm glad I re-bought some even though below my original purchase. I've trickled a little more $ on the few slight down days. In general, I'm looking to increase that and VIGI as a potential hedge against possible lower U.S. $. I'm looking for that big dip as well. So, it is also with AAPL, MSFT, AMZN - What a market?!?! Stay well, man!


I’m sure you noticed @rhythmmethod that MATFX jumped 3% today. It’s consistently outpacing MIAPX/MPACX, which I own much more of. I wish my holdings were reversed. I wish I’d bought more MATFX when I first bought it — to hell with buckets and pyramiding up! Hamlet, Act 1, Scene 7.

I really owe you a commission since you first brought the fund to my notice. Sadly, M* doesn’t allow for private money transfers. But if you have a favorite animal charity, I will send them $100. Sorry, I only donate to a animal welfare charities. More than enough money going to feed starving children and nowhere near enough money going to prevent animal abuse (which is sadly on-topic regarding China).

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I have Artyx. It is doing well too.

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@chang wrote:

@rhythmmethod wrote:

@chang wrote:

MATFX has been on a tear, @rhythmmethod. I’m glad I bought it, but I wish I’d been bolder and more a larger starting position. I added once after my initial buy. On the next dip, I’ll add again.

I always tell myself that I’ll add $X on the next “big dip”, but when that dip comes, I invariably add only around 20-25% of what I told myself I would do.


@chang  Yep, one of my many 'sell the drama' mistakes. I'm glad I re-bought some even though below my original purchase. I've trickled a little more $ on the few slight down days. In general, I'm looking to increase that and VIGI as a potential hedge against possible lower U.S. $. I'm looking for that big dip as well. So, it is also with AAPL, MSFT, AMZN - What a market?!?! Stay well, man!


I’m sure you noticed @rhythmmethod that MATFX jumped 3% today. It’s consistently outpacing MIAPX/MPACX, which I own much more of. I wish my holdings were reversed. I wish I’d bought more MATFX when I first bought it — to hell with buckets and pyramiding up! Hamlet, Act 1, Scene 7.

I really owe you a commission since you first brought the fund to my notice. Sadly, M* doesn’t allow for private money transfers. But if you have a favorite animal charity, I will send them $100. Sorry, I only donate to a animal welfare charities. More than enough money going to feed starving children and nowhere near enough money going to prevent animal abuse (which is sadly on-topic regarding China).


 Glad it worked out. I wish I more MATFX. Actually animal welfare is one of my pet projects as well. Just pick your favorite one and toss a few coins. We'll get together after this mess and you can buy the first round. Stay well!

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Rather a down day today in Asia, with Shanghai down 4.5% and HK down 2%. These make up 65% of MATFX, so barring a melt-up in the US today, MATFX should drop a little. (KOSPI down 0.8%, SENSEX up 0.9%, STI down 0.95%; these round it out.)

I’ve been wanting to add some more. BTD has been working pretty well for some time; of course, I would always like to know if a dip is going to be a 1-day dip, a 2-day dip, etc. I will probably take a nibble today, and if the markets soar on Friday I will be chastising myself as usual.

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Participant ○○○

VT holds 10.4% EM. EM is 44.9% China. So VT holds 4.7% Chinese stocks.

Our equity allocation holds 18.3% EM. 8.2% China. So a 74.5% more Chinese stocks vs world neutral VT.

I hope we're betting right.

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Explorer ○○○

Getting hard for me to read the long-term tea leaves on what a pending US/China Tech Cold War will mean for investment.  If China builds alternative/competing networks and the politics results in two separate systems, what happens to U.S. based investors?  A lot of unknowns here, but certainly some political risk.  

 

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The more I study the situation the more confused I become.


@unbiased2020 wrote:

Getting hard for me to read the long-term tea leaves on what a pending US/China Tech Cold War will mean for investment.  If China builds alternative/competing networks and the politics results in two separate systems, what happens to U.S. based investors?  A lot of unknowns here, but certainly some political risk.  

 


 

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@unbiased2020 wrote:

Getting hard for me to read the long-term tea leaves on what a pending US/China Tech Cold War will mean for investment.  If China builds alternative/competing networks and the politics results in two separate systems, what happens to U.S. based investors?  A lot of unknowns here, but certainly some political risk.  


A share doesn’t know who owns it. How could US investors be targeted? China might move ADRs to other exchanges (eg London) but US investors will still be able to access them.

Chinese (and, in general, Asian) companies don’t have the issues that US and European companies have with regulations, unions, strikes, diversity, climate change, ESG, CSR, tax wars with Europe, PC wars with Facebook, etc. Personally, I don’t want to be underweight China/Asia.

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MATFX fell a healthy 3.8% and I bought some. Let’s see whether the dip is U, V or W shaped.

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Explorer ○○○

A share doesn’t know who owns it. How could US investors be targeted? China might move ADRs to other exchanges (eg London) but US investors will still be able to access them.

Chinese (and, in general, Asian) companies don’t have the issues that US and European companies have with regulations, unions, strikes, diversity, climate change, ESG, CSR, tax wars with Europe, PC wars with Facebook, etc. Personally, I don’t want to be underweight China/Asia.


I get it, and it's tough to balance the risks of investing vs. not investing and FOMO. But I do think China political risks are unique for U.S. investors, unlike other emerging markets. 

More specifically, what are the long-term risks of conflict between the nations?  This is not an idle concern.  We just publicly rejected their South China Sea claims after both countries staged massive opposing military naval drills.  Are we on the path to a shooting war?  Not today, but tensions have really ratcheted up in recent years.  I don't have much experience investing in a country that could become an "enemy" of the U.S., so the risks to capital in this situation are a bit unknown to me.

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Explorer ○○○

Things have really gotten really, uh, interesting between China & the U.S. now.  Is anyone changing their investment thesis as a result of escalating tensions?

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Participant ○○○

what happened new on US China front? I did not see anything in the news.

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Frequent Contributor

@unbiased2020 wrote:
More specifically, what are the long-term risks of conflict between the nations?  This is not an idle concern.  We just publicly rejected their South China Sea claims after both countries staged massive opposing military naval drills.  Are we on the path to a shooting war?  Not today, but tensions have really ratcheted up in recent years.  I don't have much experience investing in a country that could become an "enemy" of the U.S., so the risks to capital in this situation are a bit unknown to me.

I would be silly, of course, to think that I can answer these questions definitively. But I really don’t believe we will ever get into a shooting war. Both the US and China adore posturing, so I expect lots of noisy barking, but no real damage done by either country to the other. Neither one wants a shooting war, which would be disastrous for both countries.

I will continue to invest on dips. We got a diplet last week, and I took a nibble. I will continue this approach.

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Another important point might be that if China and the US go to war, it won't matter how we're invested. 

So, we might as well be in the market.

N.

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From what I have been reading lately, Biden might win in Nov. Policy towards China may change to a more passive approach. I am watching Japan, Australia and Europe as to how they are reacting to China's more aggressive military build up. There is growing concern on several fronts. Do not under estimate the EU, it is a huge market for China.

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Biden may not tweet about it daily but internally he will likely continue with same policies. It is quite possible these policies and thinking started during Obama times. There is continuity to these things. Most leaders do not do it publicly. Like Indian leaders have hardly said a word on China.

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@waffle , there is a big shift now in India-China relations. India has banned 5 dozen Chinese apps, banned Chinese companies from many local sectors, restricted Chinese investments, and is going to possibly shift its policies related to HK, Taiwan.

YBB
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HK and Shanghai deep in the red today; US futures down. I will add take another nibble today.

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