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cliff
Explorer ○○

Re: Vector (VGR): Nothing is Forever


@Bentley wrote:

https://www.dividendchannel.com/history/?symbol=vgr

                                                        VGR               SPY

Start date:
11/09/2009
End date:11/06/201911/06/2019
Start price/share:$10.94$109.57
End price/share:$11.14$307.10
Starting shares:914.0891.27
Ending shares:2,265.63111.08
Dividends reinvested/share:$13.31$37.94
Total return:152.39%241.14%
Average Annual Total Return:9.70%13.06%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$25,232.26$34,114.87
Years:10.0010.00

 

Hey, would someone do me a favor?  Click on that link above, choose calculator, and then do a comparison of VGR to SPY using a start date of 1/24/05.  I believe that's approximately 14.79 years ago and it has some meaning to me, unlike a 1 or 5 or 10 year time period.

Although I think the concept of comparing a higher yielding individual stock (as part of a whole bunch of other stuff) with some total market thingee is generally devoid of any intellectual or practical use, I'd be curious of the results.

As an aside, I think that this conversation has gone on just about long enough.  Because I started it, I'm obliged to chime in once in a while; I don't want to appear rude.  But I've noticed that I've picked up another bullet on my Explorer status and I do not want to be a Participant.

And I haven't heard back from Ryan yet on my request to be designated an Explorer Emeritus.  (But it's past 6 pm in Chicago, so he's probably already pulled on his galoshes and trudged to the local pub.  Maybe tomorrow.)

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Bentley
Contributor ○

Re: Vector (VGR): Nothing is Forever


@cliff wrote:

@Bentley wrote:

https://www.dividendchannel.com/history/?symbol=vgr

                                                        VGR               SPY

Start date:
11/09/2009
End date:11/06/201911/06/2019
Start price/share:$10.94$109.57
End price/share:$11.14$307.10
Starting shares:914.0891.27
Ending shares:2,265.63111.08
Dividends reinvested/share:$13.31$37.94
Total return:152.39%241.14%
Average Annual Total Return:9.70%13.06%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$25,232.26$34,114.87
Years:10.0010.00

 

Hey, would someone do me a favor?  Click on that link above, choose calculator, and then do a comparison of VGR to SPY using a start date of 1/24/05.  I believe that's approximately 14.79 years ago and it has some meaning to me, unlike a 1 or 5 or 10 year time period.

 

 Cliff,

 It appears that if you go back 13 years or so VGR starts to outperform the market. Those who bought on recommendations in the past 12 years were burned by EMH> :))

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ElLobo
Participant ○○○

Re: Vector (VGR): Nothing is Forever

"Hey, would someone do me a favor? Click on that link above, choose calculator, and then do a comparison of VGR to SPY using a start date of 1/24/05. I believe that's approximately 14.79 years ago and it has some meaning to me, unlike a 1 or 5 or 10 year time period."

Can't do it.  The link is to Dividend Channel and it shows an ever decreasing divey, going back in time, which is adjusting the 40 cent/quarter divey for the 105/100 stock split.

Here is a link to Portfolio Visualizer, with the performance of VGR v SPY from Jan 1, 2005: link

The results, for all diveys reinvested, is as follows:

Since January 1, 2005  
PortfolioVGRSPY
Initial Balance$10,000$10,000
Final Balance$41,530$33,736
CAGR10.07%8.54%
Stdev20.24%13.84%
Best Year47.19%32.31%
Worst Year-49.21%-36.81%
Max. Drawdown-51.59%-50.80%
Sharpe Ratio0.510.57
Sortino Ratio0.820.83
US Mkt Correlation0.361

 

VGR outperformed the market until a year ago, whenever the market caught up with it!  Two years ago, with all diveys reinvested, the VGR portfolio was worth roughly $60,000 while the SPY portfolio was worth roughly half, at $30,000.

Interestingly enough, ifn you run this taking diveys as cash, VGR tracks the market until 2017, whenever it tanks, while the market rises.  This leads me to believe the annual 5% stock divey was reinvested, since the yearly cash flow is roughly $1,000 for $10,000 initially invested.

In terms of that cash flow, taken as cash rather than reinvested, VGR produced roughly $1000/year (10%), while SPY produced roughly $200/year, or 2%, about equal to the average yield!

ElLobo
Participant ○○○

Re: Vector (VGR): Nothing is Forever

Sorry, Cliff, never saw the calculator there before.  Here be the results:

With diveys reinvested

                                                     VGR                   SPY

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$116.55
End price/share:$11.19$308.18
Starting shares:1,040.5885.80
Ending shares:3,904.00113.92
Dividends reinvested/share:$18.31$48.53
Total return:336.86%251.09%
Average Annual Total Return:10.48%8.86%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$43,687.89$35,111.49
Years:14.7914.79
 

 

With.png

With diveys taken as cash

Total cash generated     VGR = $18.31 times 3,904      = $71,482.24

                                       OR  = $18.31 times 1040.58 = $19,053.02

From Portfolio Visualizer                                              =$16,819

I don't know if any of these numbers includes the yearly 5% stock divey.

                                       SPY  = $48.53 times 113.92 = $5,528.54

 From Portfolio Visualizer                                           =$4,137

I don't know why these two numbers are so far apart.  I wonder if SPY had any cap gain distributions?  Any other ideas anyone?

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$116.55
End price/share:$11.19$308.18
Dividends collected/share:$18.31$48.53
Total return:207.01%206.06%
Average Annual Total Return:7.88%7.85%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$30,714.64$30,588.51
Years:14.7914.79

 

without.png

Bottom line is that VGR was our own ATM machine.  So, going forward, VGR yields 7.19% while SPY yields 1.81% today.

Here is VGR v MO, with divey reinvestment.  MO currently yields 7.5%

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$62.16
End price/share:$11.19$45.98
Starting shares:1,040.58160.88
Ending shares:3,904.001,478.16
Dividends reinvested/share:$18.31$106.00
Total return:336.86%579.66%
Average Annual Total Return:10.48%13.83%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$43,687.89$67,965.96
Years:14.7914.79

 

And without reinvestment

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$62.16
End price/share:$11.19$45.98
Dividends collected/share:$18.31$106.00
Total return:207.01%144.50%
Average Annual Total Return:7.88%6.23%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$30,714.64$24,452.00
Years:14.7914.79

 

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Bentley
Contributor ○

Re: Vector (VGR): Nothing is Forever


@ElLobo wrote:

Sorry, Cliff, never saw the calculator there before.  Here be the results:

With diveys reinvested

                                                     VGR                   SPY

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$116.55
End price/share:$11.19$308.18
Starting shares:1,040.5885.80
Ending shares:3,904.00113.92
Dividends reinvested/share:$18.31$48.53
Total return:336.86%251.09%
Average Annual Total Return:10.48%8.86%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$43,687.89$35,111.49
Years:14.7914.79
 

 

With.png

With diveys taken as cash

Total cash generated     VGR = $18.31 times 3,904      = $71,482.24

                                       OR  = $18.31 times 1040.58 = $19,053.02

From Portfolio Visualizer                                              =$16,819

I don't know if any of these numbers includes the yearly 5% stock divey.

                                       SPY  = $48.53 times 113.92 = $5,528.54

 From Portfolio Visualizer                                           =$4,137

I don't know why these two numbers are so far apart.  I wonder if SPY had any cap gain distributions?  Any other ideas anyone?

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$116.55
End price/share:$11.19$308.18
Dividends collected/share:$18.31$48.53
Total return:207.01%206.06%
Average Annual Total Return:7.88%7.85%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$30,714.64$30,588.51
Years:14.7914.79

 

without.png

Bottom line is that VGR was our own ATM machine.  So, going forward, VGR yields 7.19% while SPY yields 1.81% today.

Here is VGR v MO, with divey reinvestment.  MO currently yields 7.5%

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$62.16
End price/share:$11.19$45.98
Starting shares:1,040.58160.88
Ending shares:3,904.001,478.16
Dividends reinvested/share:$18.31$106.00
Total return:336.86%579.66%
Average Annual Total Return:10.48%13.83%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$43,687.89$67,965.96
Years:14.7914.79

 

And without reinvestment

Start date:01/24/200501/24/2005
End date:11/07/201911/07/2019
Start price/share:$9.61$62.16
End price/share:$11.19$45.98
Dividends collected/share:$18.31$106.00
Total return:207.01%144.50%
Average Annual Total Return:7.88%6.23%
Starting investment:$10,000.00$10,000.00
Ending investment:$30,714.64$24,452.00
Years:14.7914.79

 


 

 When you have to go back 12-13 years before you find an investment that did well in the past, you have to ask yourself; What happened? Why has it underperformed over the past decade +?

 Most investors are interested in the past decade to judge management, what they did back 15 years ago means little to anyone who jumped in 10 years ago.

 Those who saw the writing on the wall several years ago and have a rules-based approach to investing exited. Well done.

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