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Deja Vu All Over Again

        This is beginning to look like 2009 to me. The smart money buys up bargains boosting stock values during a calamity to be followed eventually by the amateurs who have fled seeking out remaining values to be followed by bond holders (except FD) as equities take off once again. 
 
                Reason #1 Equities have rhe greatest returns in 7 out of 10 years and the worst seems to be behind us.

                Reason #2 The market points to the future direction of the economy out of a setback several months in advance.
 
           The timing in the short run is of course always unknown. But glass vials are already being mass produced to distribute vaccines to millions. New current treatments are reducing covid death rates.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

It doesn’t really look like 2009. In 2009, stocks had fallen significantly from their previous highs. Right now, stocks are close to their previous highs, or (in the case of many tech stocks) at new, all-time highs.

But I agree there are things out there to buy.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@chang wrote:

It doesn’t really look like 2009. In 2009, stocks had fallen significantly from their previous highs. Right now, stocks are close to their previous highs, or (in the case of many tech stocks) at new, all-time highs.

But I agree there are things out there to buy.


Apparently, most everything other than the FAANGS are ready to buy!

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/facebook-apple-amazon-netflix-faang-stock-prices-rec...

De gustibus non disputandum est,
Quot homines tot sententiæ
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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

I'm going to say it looks like the second half of 2011. What is the "smart money" again?

In keeping with the trends around here I changed my Avatar to my dog and will sign off in a foreign language.

Ich bin ein Dummkopf!

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

Not to quibble, but it's "déjà vu", which means "already seen".

"Deja vous" means something like "I'm already you".

Sorry. 60 million Francophiles are watching.

Leaving aside the French lesson, I'm clueless about where the stock market goes next. Should Mr. Biden be elected and reach out to the far left, there could be trouble.

N.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@norbertc wrote:

Not to quibble, but it's "déjà vu", which means "already seen".

"Deja vous" means something like "I'm already you".

Sorry. 60 million Francophiles are watching.

Leaving aside the French lesson, I'm clueless about where the stock market goes next. Should Mr. Biden be elected and reach out to the far left, there could be trouble.

N.


The market likes having a Democrat as President. This is from last cycle, but... https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlazaroff/2016/07/26/democrats-vs-republicans-who-is-better-for-the...

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@norbertc wrote:

Not to quibble, but it's "déjà vu", which means "already seen".

"Deja vous" means something like "I'm already you".

Sorry. 60 million Francophiles are watching.

Leaving aside the French lesson, I'm clueless about where the stock market goes next. Should Mr. Biden be elected and reach out to the far left, there could be trouble.

N.


Do you think Biden will dismantle the FAANGMs which are the engine that is powering the economic recovery? If he attempts to raise Corp taxes they will reduce their presence in US. AAPL recently prevailed in an EU court decision that held that Ireland did not grant a tax favor by reducing the Corporate tax rate for AAPL to 2% which will save AAPL $15B in taxes and will encourage it to move more operations to Ireland.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

"Deja Vous All Over Again" is a quote from Yogi Berra.  It's meant to be funny.

This is not like 2008/9 for me.  As a dividend investor, I had just one dividend cut during the financial meltdown, I've had 3 cuts so far during this crisis.  I have picked up a few stocks at good prices.  Given how badly the pandemic is being managed here in the US, I fear we will be in for a long recession/depression.  I think getting the pandemic under control will have more impact on our financial future than things like corporate tax rates and such.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

       norbertc -  quibble away. It was a quick spelling look up. I didn’t check the definition. My wife is Québécois but men don’t ask. I changed it for you the best I could.

        MNfish - when I say smart money I mean professional investors and their research departments. I see what they do and follow.

        KathieL - I wasn’t referring to value or core stocks basically growth and high risk investments, not your interest. I really don’t invest based on what I think or everyday general news just business facts. As far as I saw this recession is supposedly over after this quarter. Foreign newspapers seem to hold the same opinion. We’ll all see the actual facts by January. 

         Chang - During the bank crisis we picked such high PE, no income, overvalued stocks like AMZN. That’s worked out pretty good so far. I guess my point is with some stocks like the FAANGS and other high growth securities in my experience you can throw out the “value” metric.

           So I don’t believe tech stocks are way overpriced now except NFLX. Tech is just the tip of the spear and when others jump back in someday spreading investments around at higher values you’ll have a more sustainable recovery. When the next bull market occurs many stocks and usually markets reach new highs. In my opinion current tech leaders should be among them.

            This looks like smoke clearing time after the event. A trading range.  I think they declared that recession over in mid 2009. Didn’t this one get called probably after this quarter? Sept?

 

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@norbertc wrote:

Not to quibble, but it's "déjà vu", which means "already seen".

"Deja vous" means something like "I'm already you".

Sorry. 60 million Francophiles are watching.

Leaving aside the French lesson, I'm clueless about where the stock market goes next. Should Mr. Biden be elected and reach out to the far left, there could be trouble.

N.


Salut, Bertie. Comment ca va? We didn't go to the Dordogne this year for obvious reasons. What's the situation in Paris? Are tourists coming yet? Do people expect they will?

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@steelpony10 wrote:

        This is beginning to look like 2009 to me. The smart money buys up bargains boosting stock values during a calamity to be followed eventually by the amateurs who have fled seeking out remaining values to be followed by bond holders (except FD) as equities take off once again. 
 
                Reason #1 Equities have rhe greatest returns in 7 out of 10 years and the worst seems to be behind us.

                Reason #2 The market points to the future direction of the economy out of a setback several months in advance.
 
           The timing in the short run is of course always unknown. But glass vials are already being mass produced to distribute vaccines to millions. New current treatments are reducing covid death rates.


Well, it's a recession that's for sure. The causes and direction were different in 2009. The outcome may have been similar, but the Fed didn't act anywhere near as quickly last time. Markets don't have a great track record predicting the long-term and stocks are back to being very over-bought. I guess it all depends on your perspective whether you think things are good at the moment.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

"This time is different?"  Maybe, maybe not.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/01/defining-time-different-2/#:~:text=This%20time%20is%20diffe...

"In sum, this time is always different in terms of the current state of the markets because they're complex and adaptable.  But it's never different when it comes to our inherent behavioral biases."

 

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@Intruder wrote:

@norbertc wrote:

Not to quibble, but it's "déjà vu", which means "already seen".

"Deja vous" means something like "I'm already you".

Sorry. 60 million Francophiles are watching.

Leaving aside the French lesson, I'm clueless about where the stock market goes next. Should Mr. Biden be elected and reach out to the far left, there could be trouble.

N.


Do you think Biden will dismantle the FAANGMs which are the engine that is powering the economic recovery? If he attempts to raise Corp taxes they will reduce their presence in US. AAPL recently prevailed in an EU court decision that held that Ireland did not grant a tax favor by reducing the Corporate tax rate for AAPL to 2% which will save AAPL $15B in taxes and will encourage it to move more operations to Ireland.


 

Basically, agree with @Intruder. People figure out how to make $$. The rest is noise. The metrics might change. Mr. Market might wet its diaper should Mr. Biden win. There will be new (and worthy, IMO) players including the aforementioned tech, renewable energy, my personal favorite; cannabis, and many others. I'd look at it as a buying opportunity.


 

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

I keep "simple" as usual:

1) avoid big losses (max 3% but actually less than 1%) 

2) Join uptrends 

3) Trade stocks/ETF/CEFs when I know I can make money at 80+% success.

I have no idea where is the top, bottom, over/under value.  The smart money isn't that smart because the indexes beat most of the hedge funds

hedge.PNG

4) But Win, as you know, I also think the big tech have been and will continue to win in the future.  They can acquire the next customer much cheaper, especially the software companies.  In my 37 in IT I have seen how we eliminated so many jobs and processes and since IT has no barriers it can be done much cheaper in Asia and Eastern Europe.

But this is far from 2009, we are at the top now after great performance for over 10 years.  Are we going to have another 10 years at 13-15% annually? I doubt it.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@KathieL wrote:

"Deja Vous All Over Again" is a quote from Yogi Berra.  It's meant to be funny.

This is not like 2008/9 for me.  As a dividend investor, I had just one dividend cut during the financial meltdown, I've had 3 cuts so far during this crisis.  I have picked up a few stocks at good prices.  Given how badly the pandemic is being managed here in the US, I fear we will be in for a long recession/depression.  I think getting the pandemic under control will have more impact on our financial future than things like corporate tax rates and such.


No, it's déjà vu...      

(And I'm not even french, only swiss...)

 

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again


@KathieL - Lost in translation so I changed it best I could without the French frosting. We’ve lost about 2% of our dividend income (CEF) to date because we made dividend investments at the end of March as insurance. One of our first moves during a recession with accumulated cash.

 

https://www.theonion.com/congress-passes-bill-to-build-new-35-mile-overpass-capa-1844403084


           Just in case this is another joke a fantasy, like fortune telling the future and those paper portfolio balances, ✌️

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

The clairvoyance gene apparently skipped my generation.  While I may have a guess, or a series of scenarios to which I might assign different subjective probabilities, I have little faith in any of it because I didn't predict C-19 and its dramatic economic effects, let alone its timing.  And the unexpected outliers rule the future, like World War II and its ramifications shaped the last 75 years.

All I can do is try to prepare for anything, to the degree possible.

If I have strong conviction on the risk-reward setup, I may play a bit more aggressively or conservatively at the margin, but not more than that.  This way I won't destroy myself if/when I am wrong.

As Charlie Munger has shared, he doesn't know what the market is going to do.  He just tries to swim better than the tide.  

Most of the rest is just self-deception.

The stock market is a complex, nonlinear, adaptive system.  Throw progress and emotional people into the mix and who knows what is coming next.

The only thing I am relatively sure of is that human creativity and progress should drive good results over the very long term.  

While an asteroid strike or some other existential threat would put the lie to that, the last of our concerns in such a scenario would be the stock market.  

 

“When markets are happy, think about what could go wrong. When markets are in despair, think about what could go right.”
— Dennis Stattman

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Re: Deja Vu All Over Again

At least for me, biotech has been the big winner.

Market was down Friday, and the only green in my port was NVMX and MRNA.......and green in a BIG way.

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Re: Deja Vu All Over Again


@twinlabs wrote:

Market was down Friday, and the only green in my 


S&P500 and Nasdaq both closed up 0.28% on Friday.

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Re: Deja Vous All Over Again

@ kzug

 As a dividend oriented investor your comment is well taken. However, always however's, our portfolio's are not designed to buy and hold any more. They are now designed to be buy, sell [CapGains], buy, sell [CapGains}, etc....

 In todays [traders] environment, with the microcomputers responding in fractions of a second, income investors must get their portfolio performance from "both" their dividends "and" their CapGains each year....

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