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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@FD1001 wrote:

Why do I need to repeat myself? I called these funds "cash sub" for investors who understand the risk/volatility. The current thread also talks about cash.  Do posters understand that ICSH is really not cash? I hope they do.

Did you really think that SEMMX can make 4+% with very low volatility in all market conditions? if you did, please stop reading M* and go to a financial advisor.

Ho, I know what is going on.  You wanted to be diversified in bondland while the black swan ate your floating rate funds...no wonder you are upset.


In a word, Wow!

Nothing more to say as I have to find an advisor now who will educate me that "CASH SUB" means high risk/volatility and NOT what "SUB" aka "SUBSTITUTE" means... Case closed!

PS: In M* forums, we need to follow a different dictionary than what is generally applicable. Got it!

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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Cash = cash or CDs that cannot lose money.  But with paltry returns it is reasonable to reach one risk tier up from cash.  ICSH looks like one such fund.  I would call it a "money market alternative" on the one rung up from cash on the risk ladder. 

On the other hand, IOFIX (which had horrible performance in the few years it was a private fund before going public and fully disclosed in their SEC filings) and SEMMX (which is essentially 100%, all huevos in one sector) were and are several rungs up the risk ladder from the cash rung.  

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@PaulR888 wrote:

Cash = cash or CDs that cannot lose money.  But with paltry returns it is reasonable to reach one risk tier up from cash.  ICSH looks like one such fund.  I would call it a "money market alternative" on the one rung up from cash on the risk ladder. 

On the other hand, IOFIX (which had horrible performance in the few years it was a private fund before going public and fully disclosed in their SEC filings) and SEMMX (which is essentially 100%, all huevos in one sector) were and are several rungs up the risk ladder from the cash rung.  


Well, it all depends on your definition and how far you want to go.  It's either MM or not.

But, a good analyst knows when to take the risk and when to avoid it.  Example: when I went to cash YTD, I didn't trust the typical MM and invested in Gov MM. Maybe I was too careful? sure but I didn't want the extra risk, even a small one.

On the other hand, I had a lot of money in IOFIX and did great but I sold at the right time.  Again, either you know the risk and what you own or you don't and it looks to me you don't.

The bigger and more important question is did you learn from your mistakes going forward?  are you still going to use 20 funds? buckets? endless diversification, thinking that higher distributions is a must? 

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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I had some Diamond Hill Short Duration Total Ret I, (DHEIX) and sold it before the first big market drop in February, but still lost money. You have to be a superb trader to have not lost and money with SEMMX

 

btw: this a pretty off topic.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@FatKat wrote:

You have to be a superb trader to have not lost and money with SEMMX


In the faceless forums, anyone can be a great trader. After all, no one audits the trades and posts it for verification. So, in theory, I could post that I bought it when it was lower. 

Later, I can *claim* to have sold it by posting some *fake* trades but in reality, I will be still holding but when it turns, after a week or so, I can say that I bought it again.  Because I trade a lot, people will believe me. So, works both ways. In essence, I will never ever have a loss.  

These kinds of pronouncements on an anonymous board will, in fact, make me sleep better. ;)

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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yeah @RainGater fun and games time for some makes for a happy camper! This is mainly a social discussion board, not for taking professional investment advice from people. Some come to impress, other just to mess, and some come with their best. Go with what you know I say, OR DON'T GO ON YOUR OWN. This is why many investors hire professionals to set up and monitor their finances.

I like some of the investment ideas members have here, but I am the one who does the thinking for my choices.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@RainGater wrote:

@FatKat wrote:

You have to be a superb trader to have not lost and money with SEMMX


In the faceless forums, anyone can be a great trader. After all, no one audits the trades and posts it for verification. So, in theory, I could post that I bought it when it was lower. 

Later, I can *claim* to have sold it by posting some *fake* trades but in reality, I will be still holding but when it turns, after a week or so, I can say that I bought it again.  Because I trade a lot, people will believe me. So, works both ways. In essence, I will never ever have a loss.  

These kinds of pronouncements on an anonymous board will, in fact, make me sleep better. ;)


Just for people like you, I made sure to post my trades(here) in several sites in one of the fastest declines and I was "lucky" again. I know you can't stand it and why I will remind that for years to come :-)

When are you going to stay on topic? it's getting old and repetitive.

and as always, I hope you will make lots of money, I don't care what others make or claim.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@FD1001 wrote:


Just for people like you, I made sure to post my trades(here) in several sites in one of the fastest declines and I was "lucky" again. I know you can't stand it and why I will remind that for years to come :-)

When are you going to stay on topic? it's getting old and repetitive.

and as always, I hope you will make lots of money, I don't care what others make or claim.


That's  good @FD1001 your a good investor and trader! Your posts are very interesting. Not that I always agree, but we are different kinds of investors, as you know.

We all need to keep on topic. I am looking at NEAR as a possible, Anyone have a suggestion?

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@FD1001 wrote:

I know you can't stand it and why I will remind that for years to come :-)

Does it sting? I didn't even respond to you as it was directed towards FatKat's observation. 

I must lead a really miserable life thinking and moaning that FD made lots of money and can't stand it. Wow, I must be a magnanimous loser!

PS: I guess my high school teacher is trolling and going to grade me based on the trades I post here. Who knows, I better post some wining trades!

And, my last post on this topic as it's boring to keep beating the same old dead horse. And, on a lighter note, the markets seems to be exhausted after hitting 2960s. Well, let's see whether the Fed's printing press is going to work overtime tonight as the DOW futures are up 131 now. ;)

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@RainGater wrote:

@FatKat wrote:

You have to be a superb trader to have not lost and money with SEMMX


In the faceless forums, anyone can be a great trader. After all, no one audits the trades and posts it for verification. So, in theory, I could post that I bought it when it was lower. 

Later, I can *claim* to have sold it by posting some *fake* trades but in reality, I will be still holding but when it turns, after a week or so, I can say that I bought it again.  Because I trade a lot, people will believe me. So, works both ways. In essence, I will never ever have a loss.  

These kinds of pronouncements on an anonymous board will, in fact, make me sleep better. ;)


 

Well, if anyone is interested, there is a relatively easy solution to resolve this dilemma of *fake* trades on the M* Forum. Participate in the annual Portfolio Challenge. Check out the thread. Here are the basic rules for the ongoing 2020 Challenge as posted by RichinKansas:

"Its that Time of year again, time to start a new investment challenge. We always invite new participants. Since M* deleted past years challenges I am having to post these rules from memory. At the start of the contest each participant is given ( by Boris ) $1,000,000.00 to invest wisely. Participants can join in at any time. Post your starting portfolio and post all buys and sells timely. At the end of each month I will ask all participants to post their current portfolio and balance so others in the group may learn from your progress (or lack there of). I will post current standings by the 5th of each month or as soon as I receive all results. Winner will be held in awe by other contestants for a full day. Anything I have forgot? Remember, Boris will be watching us, he is a tough task master. He likes to send folks to Siberia."

Joining the Challenge would probably eliminate a lot of these tiresome disputes that create a significant amount of off-topic chit-chat that unduly distract from the subject of a thread. Unfortunately, this thread is now a good example of this kind of behavior.

Fred

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@FD1001 wrote:

@PaulR888 wrote:

Cash = cash or CDs that cannot lose money.  But with paltry returns it is reasonable to reach one risk tier up from cash.  ICSH looks like one such fund.  I would call it a "money market alternative" on the one rung up from cash on the risk ladder. 

On the other hand, IOFIX (which had horrible performance in the few years it was a private fund before going public and fully disclosed in their SEC filings) and SEMMX (which is essentially 100%, all huevos in one sector) were and are several rungs up the risk ladder from the cash rung.  


Well, it all depends on your definition and how far you want to go.  It's either MM or not.

But, a good analyst knows when to take the risk and when to avoid it.  Example: when I went to cash YTD, I didn't trust the typical MM and invested in Gov MM. Maybe I was too careful? sure but I didn't want the extra risk, even a small one.

On the other hand, I had a lot of money in IOFIX and did great but I sold at the right time.  Again, either you know the risk and what you own or you don't and it looks to me you don't.

The bigger and more important question is did you learn from your mistakes going forward?  are you still going to use 20 funds? buckets? endless diversification, thinking that higher distributions is a must? 


Just when I think you may have finally graduated from charm school and using your new skills you post something like this.  Are you ever going to get back to doing what you do best and your base eats up, posting about a bottomless pit of bond funds with charts and graphs and statistics.  That is you sandbox FD.  

Yes, I did learn from March/April experience.  I am reducing my bond CEFs to 15% to 17% range and my REITs to a 10% to 12% range of PV in case we get that experience again.  I use about 40 different holdings in my Rollover IRA.  3 buckets.  My largest holding is 7% of PV so yes lots of diversification.  Yes, distributions are a must for me.  I want my withdrawal rate (4%) = my portfolio yield (4%) so I do not have to sell anything to cover my gap expenses.  I like what I am doing.  That is the main thing.  It is irrelevant what you think.  I use one excel spreadsheet and I can monitor my target % asset allocation which tells me when and what to buy or I can decide to stand pat and just wait for recovery.  I keep fully invested all the time, except that I accumulate the majority of distributions as cash rather than re-invest.  

Really the bigger question is you not me.  From what I have seen you have no strategy, no plan, nothing, nada except uncanny luck to always hold the best funds all the time and always sell them just in time before they go south. Perfect bond fund picking and perfect trading and selling out.  Everything you do is perfect.  As I have said before, I would be scared crapless if I were in your position, having retired with no strategy or plan for retirement years, except relying on perfect luck and timing.  Remember, a fool with a plan is a lot better off than a genius without a plan.  If I am the fool, so be it Mr. Genius.  

 

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@RainGater wrote:

PS: In M* forums, we need to follow a different dictionary than what is generally applicable. Got it!


Exactly so. It was ever thus here.

It happens to be Humpty Dumpty's dictionary, where words mean exactly what the user intends them to mean. No more and no less. How many impossible things can you believe before breakfast?

A few sample entries:

 

POSITIVE, adj. Mistaken at the top of one's voice.

RESPONSIBILITY, n. A detachable burden easily shifted to the shoulders of God, Fate, Fortune, Luck or one's neighbor.

WHITE, adj. and n. Black.

 

And so forth.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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You are a funny guy ignatz.  And very talented with words.  Thanks for making me laugh.  ahahahahahah

 

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@PaulR888 wrote:

Just when I think you may have finally graduated from charm school and using your new skills you post something like this.  Are you ever going to get back to doing what you do best and your base eats up, posting about a bottomless pit of bond funds with charts and graphs and statistics.  That is you sandbox FD.  

Yes, I did learn from March/April experience.  I am reducing my bond CEFs to 15% to 17% range and my REITs to a 10% to 12% range of PV in case we get that experience again.  I use about 40 different holdings in my Rollover IRA.  3 buckets.  My largest holding is 7% of PV so yes lots of diversification.  Yes, distributions are a must for me.  I want my withdrawal rate (4%) = or > my portfolio yield (4%) so I do not have to sell anything to cover my gap expenses.  I like what I am doing.  That is the main thing.  It is irrelevant what you think.  I use one excel spreadsheet and I can monitor my target % asset allocation which tells me when and what to buy or I can decide to stand pat and just wait for recovery.  I keep fully invested all the time, except that I accumulate the majority of distributions as cash rather than re-invest.  

Really the bigger question is you not me.  From what I have seen you have no strategy, no plan, nothing, nadaexcept uncanny luck to always hold the best funds all the time and always sell them just in time before they go south. Perfect bond fund picking and perfect trading and selling out.  Everything you do is perfect.  As I have said before, I would be scared crapless if I were in your position, having retired with no strategy or plan for retirement years, except relying on perfect luck and timing.  Remember, a fool with a plan is a lot better off than a genius without a plan.  If I am the fool, so be it Mr. Genius.  

 


PaulR888;you have no strategy, no plan, nothing, nada except uncanny luck

Let's test the above.  

1) We immigrated to this country with just $5000 and I was in my mid 30".  We had no connections in the community or knew anybody that helped us. I retired after 23 years and we need to make just 4-4.5%(including inflation which I count as 3%) to sustain our standard of living for 40+ years.  We never got stock options, inheritance and will never get them in the future. Basically, all the money we have was from working and investing

2) How can I be always lucky since the beginning which is now about 25 years of investing

2.1 1995-2000 almost everything in US Total stock index 

2.2 Started investing in best risk/reward funds.  About 10 years (2000-2010) I was invested in about 5 funds mainly holding SGENX/SGIIX,OAKBX,FAIRX and while the SP500 made nothing, our portfolio made about 9% annually.

2.3 2010-started planning our retirement and shifting to more bonds.  Retired in 2018

2.4 In 2018 when the SP500 was down about 20%, our portfolio was down less than 1%.  2020 when SP500 lost in weeks 34% and most other categories lost too, our portfolio made money since the first week of 2020 and was positive since then

mmm...no plan? hahaha, that was funny.  The above shows a thoughtful plan that was executed very well.

What is your plan? I was wrong, I thought you had 20 positions but now we know you have 40 and you need excel to manage it.  You have no clue what system/style you want and why you have selected several of them just in case and why they are competing with each other.  We already know you can't analyze markets and make changes based on that.  This is why you have been holding lagging categories such as EM for years (in the last several years I hold only US LC). This is why when it was well known the Coronavirus is a black swan you were frozen.  If it will happen again, you will get hit.  This is why using many systems + many funds don't make your portfolio better but creates a lot of overhead and indecision.  You need to be lucky and it would not surprise me to find that you inherited money and/or has a pension.

anyway, good luck (you'll need it) in the future.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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In a forum like this how can anyone not understand "2% yield = less risky, 4% yield = more risky"? It is so basic.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@Gary1952 wrote:

In a forum like this how can anyone not understand "2% yield = less risky, 4% yield = more risky"? It is so basic.


Yield and Risk are not necessarily correlated. For example RPHYX and VFUSX both have about the same SEC Yield (2.25% and 2.17%), but one has negative total return for each of the M* 2020 measurement periods (one week, one month, 3 month, YTD), while the other has  positive total return for each of the 2020 measurement periods.  When you look at "risk" under the M* risk icon for each fund, there is no mention of yield anywhere on that page.  Instead M* discusses risk in conjunction with total return.  You can find numerous examples of investments that have very low yield that are clearly more risky than investments with higher yield.  It does not appear that clear to me that % yield=risk.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@Gary1952 wrote:

In a forum like this how can anyone not understand "2% yield = less risky, 4% yield = more risky"? It is so basic.


Of course, it's risky with *hindsight* as a guide. I didn't see you or anyone, for that matter, post that SEMMX is a very risky fund before Feb of this year. In fact, most of the bond gurus touted SEMMX as a a rock solid investment and some even proclaimed that it is a "CASH SUB" and you can sleep well at night - apparently, "CASH SUB" has different meanings in M* forums.

Btw, no one is blaming others for the investing decisions - it's just that it will be nice to see, for a change, when someone admits that they were wrong about a fund or two. I was wrong about most of the bond OEFs like SEMMX, PIMIX, JMSIX, SPFLX, etc. as I chased yield/performance over quality.  Instead of picking bonds to act as a ballast to my stocks, I wanted the bonds to perform as well as stocks. Big mistake and lesson learned with a roughly 7% loss and if you take into account all the dividends over the last couple of years, I may be even positive on these trades. No big deal.

In fact, I am very very happy that this bond massacre has given me great opportunities to buy stocks after a historic run last year.  

PS: I broke my promise within 12 hours and posted again on this topic. **bleep**!

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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I'm very cautious, not the same is highly experienced. I bought a bit of PUCZX andd JMUTX from reading here and they lost some $, but along with other bond funds, I sold fast and what I kept, is not so bad, just will be a longer wait until the value returns. I will keep a small, amount and watch.

Yield is correlated with risk, but it is not a direct correlation. It is highly mitigated by fund type and what is held. Risk is not always apparent because some rick does not occur until economic circumstances change. This is what happened with SEMMX, had we not the coronavirus and the big market loss, the fund would still be praised.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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One of advantages of being a small investor is that I can keep things simple and basic (if I restrain myself and use some common sense).  Anyway, I keep my cash in an online savings account at Redneck Bank, pays 1.5% currently and that has been the rate for a while now.  FDIC insured, it is a part of the All America Bank in Oklahoma, which started in 1913 if I recall correctly.  I've had online savings accounts with Marcus, Barclays, and MySavingsDirect, and the Mega Money Market account with Redneck Bank has been as easy and hassle-free as the others were.  

One small step up, I just started putting some money into the Fidelity Conservative Income Bond fund (FCONX), an ultra-short bond fund that pays just a little over 2%.  This might not be the absolute best choice in the ultra-short bond category, but I have been studying it for a while, along with some others, and I liked what I saw.  Also, with the amounts I'm working with, it's really not worth trying to stretch for a few more basis points somewhere else, in real dollar terms it wouldn't make a big difference.  

And to drift a bit from the thread's main topic, reading some of the last posts was interesting.  I had started buying two bond OEF's in the summer of 2018, PONAX and FIJEX, and somewhere in late 2019 I added SEMPX.  I too liked what I was reading in various posts, and I did do some due diligence.  I was planning on just making bond funds the centerpiece of my portfolio, I liked the payouts they were making, and they seemed to be reasonably safe.  While I was always prepared for a bit of NAV fluctuation, when the bondstorm hit, I didn't understand why bond funds were going down so much.  So I sold all of them on 11 Mar.  As I wrote on another thread, now I have a better and more current frame of reference as to what can happen with these funds, I am getting close to going back in with one bond fund, something like an Intermediate Core or Core Plus fund, or a multisector fund.  Right now PTIAX is looking pretty good, a decent return, but what really caught my eye with this fund was that the NAV seemed not to have moved drastically, looking back the last couple of years on their distributions.  

Anyway, back to the main topic.  Simple but effective for me, an online savings account, and the ultra-short bond fund.  I feel good about both of them.

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Re: Where to Put Cash? [Ultra & ST ETFs]

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@mlott1this is what I have at Vanguard: VBILX, VCOBX, VMBSX and VFIIX. I like and hold Fidelity® US Bond Index, (FXNAX) and would consider Fidelity® GNMA, (FGMNX)

 

have a good day.

 

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