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Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?


@Holiday wrote:

 

<snip>

And instead of learning from history, US leaders actively ignore it, a truth for which there could be no better symbolic proof than the Trump administration’s dismantling of the National Security Council pandemic office created by the Obama administration in the wake of the Ebola outbreak. Finally, instead of seeking to keep the public informed to the best of our ability, some of our political leaders and media institutions have gone out of their way to muddy the waters. 

 

Holiday


I see you (and others) are highly politicizing this thread...OK...but a couple observations:

Your reference to dismantling any pandemic office is an old report.  I see that several newspapers, even NY ones, have published articles saying this is false news.  Similarly, the supposedly reduced funding for CDC is showing to be false news.  But no matter...these aren't important.

 I will simply give you a viewpoint from someone who has worked in gvt/industry partnership to manage an entire program--the Naval Nuclear Powered Submarine Program. 

Commercial Nuclear power is controlled by more than one fed agency involvement.  However, for Submarines, an old codger, Admiral Rickover, got Congress to give him FULL CONTROL/FULL RESPONSIBILITY for Subs, and the safety of the sailors.  Rickover then hired full time, a small cadre of technically based expertise, Westinghouse and GE, in managing and independently reporting to Rickover, who could thus keep a much smaller staff.  A team effort.  No-one has experienced the success of the nuclear powered submarines.  None has ever been lost due to a nuclear accident.  (BTW poster Chang was on the Navy side, and we worked together; poster El Lobo was at Westinghouse).

I bring this up, because, in no way would the Navy or GE or Westinghouse have employed anyone like a Pandemic Team or office, for something that occurs about twice a century.  Had we experienced, for example, a virus problem on subs, we would have been all over it, quickly, getting disease specialists to our offices; we would dispatch program leaders to the CDC, and tackle the job jointly.

If you spread out responsibility to various agencies, no one is responsible.  Having all navy nuc responsibility in one place, with private sector technical teams, served the nation well.

Now consider the white house.  I can tell you if I were ever president, there is NO WAY I have a Pandemic Team on staff, sitting around doing nothing, until the next pandemic.  This is how government bloat develops.  INSTEAD, consider these words carefully:

C---Center

D--Disease

C--Control

What a perfect mission...very clear.  In fact, google says: "As the nation's health protection agency, CDC saves lives and ...".  ANY PANDEMIC TEAM SHOULD BE WITHIN CDC, SO THAT ANY PRESIDENT WHO EXPERIENCES WHAT WE DID, SHOULD BE ABLE TO CALL ON CDC FOR IMMEDIATE SUPPORT.  A team of CDC personnel could be dispatched to the White House immediately.  (Eventually, this is what happened).

 

When the post-mortem is done, we will likely see the CDC was a huge failure here...both to have plans, and the methods (testing etc )to react to a pandemic.  Shameful.

But you can bet if one audited the CDC a year ago, here's the typical federal report card, common among such agencies:

--met equal opportunity goals.....................grade A

--met diversity goals....................................A

--controlled theft of federal property.............A

--equal pay.................................................B+

--Have a comprehensive Plan for disease control/pandemics.............................F

The country needs this agency to work...period.

And BTW, Congress is charged with oversight of federal agencies.  Had Congress not been "investigating" for three years, and not conducting two impeachments, but instead, PROVIDING OVERSIGHT TO FED AGENCIES SUCH AS CDC, perhaps someone might have uncovered this deficiency in CDC.  

It's why, as a Quality Assurance Manager, I would lead audit teams periodically ensuring that those involved in the nuclear power program, did their jobs.

Just another viewpoint.

R48

 

 

 

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Re: Is it time to panic?


@copie wrote:

Erryl old investor friend,

I have made up my mind to go one of two ways:

1. Buy two cases of :Wild turkey: and still buy dividend stocks each month.

2. Buy three cases of Turkey and put all stocks on drip and turn computer off and say to he** with it.

I let you know how I come out! :)

Copie

Copie we need you now more than ever!

 


 

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Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?


@retiredat48 wrote:


I see you (and others) are highly politicizing this thread...OK...but a couple observations:

Your reference to dismantling any pandemic office is an old report.  I see that several newspapers, even NY ones, have published articles saying this is false news.  Similarly, the supposedly reduced funding for CDC is showing to be false news.  But no matter...these aren't important.

...

I can tell you if I were ever president, there is NO WAY I have a Pandemic Team on staff, sitting around doing nothing, until the next pandemic.

...

R48


Yes and no, actually. But, thanks for bringing more info to the conversation.

LINK 

"It is also true that in 2018 the Trump administration fired key officials connected to the U.S. pandemic response, and they were not replaced."

The assumption that they were sitting around doing nothing is interesting. Of course we could send everyone home, Congress, the EPA, the DEA, the SEC, the DOJ, the FBI, the CIA and try and round them up again after things get ugly. Why do we even need a military until actual war breaks out? We could save a bundle.

"Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
 
Nov 8, 2013
 
Leadership: Whatever happens, you're responsible. If it doesn't happen, you're responsible."
 
If the CDC also made poor decisions, we should address that too. That would not be mutually exclusive.

 

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Participant ○○○

Re: Is it time to panic?


@copie wrote:

Erryl old investor friend,

I have made up my mind to go one of two ways:

1. Buy two cases of :Wild turkey: and still buy dividend stocks each month.

2. Buy three cases of Turkey and put all stocks on drip and turn computer off and say to he** with it.

I let you know how I come out! :)

Copie

Copie we need you now more than ever!

 


 

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Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?

 

Would supplement my post below with this:

BTW I don't give the White House a pass.
 
 I consider the White House should not be managing this problem.  A team led by top people who have the skills, resources etc should be in control.  Trump is micro-managing (a human instinct).  Such as, appointing one his key trade negotiators, to head up the getting of hospital supplies from industry, is ludicrous.  Need to assign this to a team of experts in manufacturing, delivery, shipping etc, and overall project management like instituting timelines and schedules.  For instance, if GM is making ventilators, need on-site  project reps to oversee this, coordinate requests real time, and so on.  Navy nuclear program would be doing things completely differently.
 
R48
 
 
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Participant ○○○

Re: Is it time to panic?


@retiredat48 wrote:

@Holiday wrote:

 

<snip>

And instead of learning from history, US leaders actively ignore it, a truth for which there could be no better symbolic proof than the Trump administration’s dismantling of the National Security Council pandemic office created by the Obama administration in the wake of the Ebola outbreak. Finally, instead of seeking to keep the public informed to the best of our ability, some of our political leaders and media institutions have gone out of their way to muddy the waters. 

 

Holiday


I see you (and others) are highly politicizing this thread...OK...but a couple observations:

Your reference to dismantling any pandemic office is an old report.  I see that several newspapers, even NY ones, have published articles saying this is false news.  Similarly, the supposedly reduced funding for CDC is showing to be false news.


Hi R48,

You may wish to check your facts. The Pandemic Response Team was part of the Executive Branch, and not part of the CDC. The WHO is responsible for a global pandemic response, and having a team as part of the Executive Branch improved communication, coordination, and response. So, you seem to have been misinformed on a several points.

Amid warnings from public health officials that a 2020 outbreak of a new coronavirus could soon become a pandemic involving the U.S., alarmed readers asked Snopes to verify a rumor that U.S. President Donald Trump had “fired the entire pandemic response team two years ago and then didn’t replace them.”

The claim came from a series of tweets posted by Judd Legum, who runs Popular Information, a newsletter he describes as being about “politics and power.” Legum’s commentary was representative of sharp criticism from Democratic legislators (and some Republicans) that the Trump administration had ill-prepared the country for a pandemic even as one was looming on the horizon.

Legum outlined a series of cost-cutting decisions made by the Trump administration in preceding years that had gutted the nation’s infectious disease defense infrastructure. The “pandemic response team” firing claim referred to news accounts from Spring 2018 reporting that White House officials tasked with directing a national response to a pandemic had been ousted.

Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer abruptly departed from his post leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in May 2018 amid a reorganization of the council by then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, and Ziemer’s team was disbanded. Tom Bossert, whom the Washington Post reported “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” had been fired one month prior.

It’s thus true that the Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it, eliminating Ziemer’s position and reassigning others.

Also, the Navy Nuclear Program is not tasked with managing any health crisis.  This is like citing Betty Crocker as an expert on nuclear fission. Please, let's stick to the facts and keep the political spin out of the discussion. 

Thank you,

Holiday

 

Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?

One hopes that in the times of pandemic Hiram Johnson's comment about war does NOT occur--e.g.,

“The first casualty when war comes is truth

Bob

Highlighted
Contributor ○○

Re: Is it time to panic?


@DrVenture wrote:

@Holiday wrote:

...

When it comes to predictive models, I think the largest and most representative sample is usually the best bet. In this case, all who are infected should include the naturally weighted gradient of those most susceptible through those who least are. So, this sample should be representative provided that it is large enough. Culture can change the arc of the infection curve, but I don't think it will change the mortality rate of those infected absent some unknown genetic immunity.

..

Thank you 

Holiday


I agree. My focus at this point is on flattening the curve and limiting the spread, so my comments are skewed in that direction. My biggest fear is overwhelming the health care system in the short term.

Like you, I have misgivings about averaging in, potentially too soon. In hindsight we should all be buying tomorrow. At some point, those who waited for obvious signs of recovery will have similar misgivings that they waited too long. It is the nature of those who learn from their mistakes to question their own actions. I consider that a positive.


I agree with both of you, adding too much pork may give market rise short-term, but may induce more excessive trading, causing market volatility, which makes investors nervous and can cause another sell-off. Most investors seem to reach a critical mass and sell, then refrain from reinvesting. My hope is most investors will remain somewhat optimistic and are willing to reenter the market.

We need to put first, flatting the virus curve, and keeping sanctions of public service sector business closed to the public a little longer, as a prudent measure for all of our safely.

I also think it is time to put party politics aside and get a stimulus package passed and monies made available.

We need to stop focusing on what we should have done and focus only on what we can do now for the benefit of the citizenry.

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Participant ○○○

Re: Is it time to panic?

         copie - three cases, dividend reinvestment, and keep buying once a month when you turn your computer on out of boredom after you say to * ell with it.

         Watch China, South Korea and Iran. It’s the beginning of the end maybe. That may be us by mid summer. Come on another 6-9 months from start to finish worldwide? Another 6 months or so for the fallout. Maybe a change in Washington, a vaccine in a year or so .......🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸😷

Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?


@Holiday wrote:

@retiredat48 wrote:

@Holiday wrote:

 

<snip>

And instead of learning from history, US leaders actively ignore it, a truth for which there could be no better symbolic proof than the Trump administration’s dismantling of the National Security Council pandemic office created by the Obama administration in the wake of the Ebola outbreak. Finally, instead of seeking to keep the public informed to the best of our ability, some of our political leaders and media institutions have gone out of their way to muddy the waters. 

 

Holiday


I see you (and others) are highly politicizing this thread...OK...but a couple observations:

Your reference to dismantling any pandemic office is an old report.  I see that several newspapers, even NY ones, have published articles saying this is false news.  Similarly, the supposedly reduced funding for CDC is showing to be false news.


Hi R48,

You may wish to check your facts. The Pandemic Response Team was part of the Executive Branch, and not part of the CDC. The WHO is responsible for a global pandemic response, and having a team as part of the Executive Branch improved communication, coordination, and response. So, you seem to have been misinformed on a several points.

Amid warnings from public health officials that a 2020 outbreak of a new coronavirus could soon become a pandemic involving the U.S., alarmed readers asked Snopes to verify a rumor that U.S. President Donald Trump had “fired the entire pandemic response team two years ago and then didn’t replace them.”

The claim came from a series of tweets posted by Judd Legum, who runs Popular Information, a newsletter he describes as being about “politics and power.” Legum’s commentary was representative of sharp criticism from Democratic legislators (and some Republicans) that the Trump administration had ill-prepared the country for a pandemic even as one was looming on the horizon.

Legum outlined a series of cost-cutting decisions made by the Trump administration in preceding years that had gutted the nation’s infectious disease defense infrastructure. The “pandemic response team” firing claim referred to news accounts from Spring 2018 reporting that White House officials tasked with directing a national response to a pandemic had been ousted.

Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer abruptly departed from his post leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in May 2018 amid a reorganization of the council by then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, and Ziemer’s team was disbanded. Tom Bossert, whom the Washington Post reported “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” had been fired one month prior.

It’s thus true that the Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it, eliminating Ziemer’s position and reassigning others.

Also, the Navy Nuclear Program is not tasked with managing any health crisis.  This is like citing Betty Crocker as an expert on nuclear fission. Please, let's stick to the facts and keep the political spin out of the discussion. 

Thank you,

Holiday

 


Holiday, your are posting like CNN News.  Why did you conveniently leave out of the quote, my the last sentence, which was: But no matter...these aren't important.

In other words I pointed out there are two sides to what is "the truth" and cited the sources, however, I said we do not need to resolve this...as in: "No matter."  The post I made did not try to resolve this.

Second, at no time did I say the Pandemic response team was part of the CDC.  I said it SHOULD be part of the CDC, and then when a pandemic occurs, all or part can be moved to the White House if needed.

Further, stating a Pandemic Response Team did well in communication with WHO during the last flu situation, is irrelevant to keeping such a team on WH staff when there is no flu situation.  Washington waste.  The CDC should have full responsibility, period.

Lastly, the Navy Nuclear Program IS TASKED with managing potential health crises.  A crisis that could exist with things like Chernobyl, Japan Fukushima reactors etc.  These were not "Betty Crocker" type incidents.  And plans exist for same.  Health safety is job one when running a reactor anywhere.  Your post is an insult to the Navy Nuclear Powered Submariners and Officers.

You said let's keep political spin out of the discussion.  Your entire post was political spin.  I provided what another agency does to handle this situation.  I've received a lot of "likes" on it.

R48

 

 

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Re: Is it time to panic?


@steelpony10 wrote:

         copie - three cases, dividend reinvestment, and keep buying once a month when you turn your computer on out of boredom after you say to * ell with it.

         Watch China, South Korea and Iran. It’s the beginning of the end maybe. That may be us by mid summer. Come on another 6-9 months from start to finish worldwide? Another 6 months or so for the fallout. Maybe a change in Washington, a vaccine in a year or so .......🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸😷

Agreed, @steelpony10 and @copie. We need to keep this positive perspective. The only guarantee is we don't get out of here alive.  What we do in between is what defines us! The good doctor @drventura is also in the trenches. Onward through the fog.


 

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Participant ○○○

Re: Is it time to panic?

R48, I agree with your points.

Beyond that, I find it amusing that people seriously think that re-arranging or creating new bureaucracies is the answer.

"This one should be over there, under the direction of that one. That will fix Problem A."

And then when Problem A gets worse -- as it inevitably will -- another bureaucracy is needed to correct what has now been labeled as Problem B. It never ends, people become multi-millionaires from taxpayers' money, get cushy bennies and retirements, and nepotism runs rampant along with "the revolving door." Like Generals who retire, then sit on the board of a major weapons maker, who for some reason are always in favor of every military adventure.

Many empires were destroyed by "endless foreign wars" and the predictable debasing of the currency to pay for them.

And bureaucracies, by their very nature, as they age they become less and less responsible and responsive to the problems they are supposed to solve. The higher in the maze a bureaucrat is, the less he will ever be held accountable for. The incentives for what is normal behavior in the business world is backwards in government bureaucracies (very large corporate bureaucracies are usually not much better than government bureaucracies).

The wealthiest ten or so counties in the United States are those that surround Washington DC. But nobody cares, all that matters is that the government gives them free money or other free "stuff."

After deliberations over the Constitution in 1787, one Mrs. Powell asked Benjamin Franklin what kind of government we had. Without hesitation, Franklin replied: "A republic, if you can keep it."

The republic started being eroded a couple hundred years ago. There is no sign of it around anywhere now.

Oh well, if I make it another ten years I will surely be senile by then, and none of this will matter to me.

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Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?

Claiming that inconvenient truths are "political spin" is akin to saying "fake news" without actually addressing their veracity. Claiming that people are "sounding like CNN", without speaking to specifics is an ad hominem attack. These are usually employed when the facts cannot be easily dismissed.

Now it may be time to panic! It is entirely ironic that POTUS may be shoving aside his top expert, at precisely the time he is being defended here for seemingly kicking expertise to the curb. Truth is not politics, spinning the truth is politics.

I pay attention to the opinions of others around here with few exceptions. I am not so inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the guy who has been insulting, combative and dismissive of expertise in a very vocal and public way. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Apologies to anyone I may have offended.

 

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Explorer ○○○

Re: Is it time to panic?

I agree DrVenture... 

I fear that we are behaving much more like Italy than other places that had fewer deaths. I also fear that the US is so big that the tsunami of the disease happens at different times in different regions of the country.  This could spread out the pain over a longer period of time. I am not sure it will end until there is a vaccine.

Fear and panic are two very different things.  I’m afraid for my friends and family, not so much for myself.  I am not panicking about the economy.  We are headed for a depression imho, but I believe we as a country will survive it.  Why do I believe that?  Faith... history, I think, is on my side.

erryl

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Participant ○○○

Re: Is it time to panic?

@DrVenture 

Getting back to the discussion we were having before the disruption, I applied our spurious model to several state-wide reports, and the arithmetic seems to hold pretty close.

Covid-19 Premise List.jpg

I am thinking that a generalized baseline might be helpful. Significant changes might suggest a mutation, or an isolated event which affects a large retirement community (or nursing home) for example.

If the percentages hold, then progress (or lack of it) can be tracked by the number if new cases each day. The percentages of death, and recovery should be somewhat stable, but the number of "unknown outcomes" should track the rate of increase while the number of actual "known outcomes" might track the time-weighted average of new infections.  This sounds like bond math, but this might just be where my head is at.

You mentioned the different "new case" trajectories that other countries are presently on. I think the current hope is that policy can flatten the curve, as adjusted for cultural and societal differences. Like a convexity multiple.

deaths by country.jpg

Source Report

So, if our arithmetic is correct (as it seems to be) then we should be able to predict new cases, unknown cases, and recoveries since deaths are known.  We don't need to make this effort, because the chart has lines which show how many days it will take for deaths to double.

Coincidentally, we got a phone call from the governors office last night and participated (by listening having no questions) to her summary of Michigan's current situation, her policy responses, and presentations by state officials who are directors of an agency like the Unemployment Agency.

Our governor stated that the US is currently on the same trajectory as Italy, and the data in the chart above confirms her position. So getting back to our previous discussion, our only hope is to follow the policies and the rate of implementation if we want to have an outcome similar to Taiwan (your linked report), Japan, South Korea, or Switzerland.

With the rate of deaths "doubling every day", "doubling every two days" or "doubling every three days" being the markers on the chart, it only makes sense that we need transparency along with the most qualified and competent leadership possible as these are the common traits that link the successful countries.

One "unspoken", thread that became apparent during the Governors Call last night and the Q&A which followed was the frustration shared by governors  stemming from the lack of a coherent, consistent, and fact-based policy response from the white house. The Pandemic Response Team, once part of the Executive Branch, would have been the perfect tool and likely could have changed our trajectory from "nearly the worst" to something better.

Unfortunately, the curve might be just to steep at this point. We will just have to ride it out either way.

Thank you,

Holiday 

Edit to include insightful guidance from Dr.Venture:

"Apologies to anyone that I may have offended with my post"

Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?


@erryl wrote:

I agree DrVenture... 

I fear that we are behaving much more like Italy than other places that had fewer deaths. I also fear that the US is so big that the tsunami of the disease happens at different times in different regions of the country.  This could spread out the pain over a longer period of time. I am not sure it will end until there is a vaccine.

Fear and panic are two very different things.  I’m afraid for my friends and family, not so much for myself.  I am not panicking about the economy.  We are headed for a depression imho, but I believe we as a country will survive it.  Why do I believe that?  Faith... history, I think, is on my side.

erryl


This is actually disturbing and very insightful. People could be transferring it back and forth as they travel domestically. A very real concern of mine and I agree that it could extend the problem.

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Re: Is it time to panic?

When this is all over with I will ask that my friends that has asked me about dividend investing and stock market please go back to using all their fingers on their hands when they wave at me. :)

I did try to help everyone that was selling CNP, KMI, DUK,JPM, WFC by buying their shares from them!

We have to be close to bottom. Someone last night stole our bread truck with loaded with bread!

Copie

 

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Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?

Very sorry to hear about your truck. That just simply sucks! I agree that we should all remember that despite differences of opinion, we all share the same trials and tribulations and goals.

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Re: Is it time to panic?

@copie : Very sorry to hear that (about the bread truck).  This will not be unique these days.  Our alarm company just sent us a serious reminder to keep the house alarm on all the time (not that will help a lot if something really happens).  

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Valued Contributor

Re: Is it time to panic?


@erryl wrote:

I agree DrVenture... 

I fear that we are behaving much more like Italy than other places that had fewer deaths. I also fear that the US is so big that the tsunami of the disease happens at different times in different regions of the country.  This could spread out the pain over a longer period of time. I am not sure it will end until there is a vaccine.

Fear and panic are two very different things.  I’m afraid for my friends and family, not so much for myself.  I am not panicking about the economy.  We are headed for a depression imho, but I believe we as a country will survive it.  Why do I believe that?  Faith... history, I think, is on my side.

erryl


Geographical size of US is an advantage because 325M people are spread out over an area that has the same amount of square miles as China with only 20% of the population which make social distancing easier to implement. CV in US has become concentrated in in NY, CA and WA which have densely populated urban areas.

DR Scott Gottlieb former FDA commissioner stated on CNBC this AM that based on analysis of data the from China and Italy  CV in US has another 3-4 weeks to go before it reaches its peak. Virus will peak in NY in late April.

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