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Participant ○

I'm gone

I'm a rather aggressive investor for someone in their late 70's. All equities, mostly Tech, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary over the past 10 years.

During this time I have tracked over a hundred economic indicators watching for the next recession. I thought my charts and tables were pretty good. But I think I had made the comment here years ago that I was feeling pretty confident unless California fell in the ocean or terrorist set off a nuclear bomb in NY harbor in a container ship. Little did I think of a virus. This virus did give a warning. When it first struck in China I felt we would do better with treating it as the Chinese had little warning and had no idea how bad it was at first, so it got a pretty good foothold.

But earlier this week I came to the realization that this virus would not pass in a few weeks. It will probably last into the fall at least. Unemployment will skyrocket. Tens of thousands of small businesses will fail. So I am a worrying old fart.

So I have went to cash early this week. Government Money Market funds. I have went from an aggressive investor to a ultraconservative wimp. That's ok. I'm lucky to have a pot big enough to live to 110 without investing. Down 20% YTD.

My wife and I have hunkered down. Our pantry is full. Our kids have became virtual. I'm going stir crazy and it hasn't been a week yet! No sports to watch.

But I don't care if a cure is found tomorrow and this whole virus thing blows away. I would be happy and not at all concerned about missing the bottom. But I am concerned that we may not be near the bottom. Hope I'm wrong. I have a port in the 2020 challenge that is similar to my real port that I am interested to see out of curiosity if I would have been better off to ride it out.

But I will stay out of the market till the virus and economy situation looks better.

Good luck to you all, wash your hands and stay safe.

Rich

27 Replies
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Contributor ○○

Re: I'm gone

Sorry Rich, I'm disgusted too. I think people in the market are overreacting and by doing so, it is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.  I hope I am right and the damage is done and maybe curtailed over the next few months. If the virus turns out as bad as so many in the media seem to believe it shall be, then we are in for something new and very scary! I am not chasing the market down and sorry I had, given some consolation I did not invested heavy.

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Participant ○

Re: I'm gone

DOW 15,000....S&P 2000 by the Summer (if we are lucky).

Gabe

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Explorer ○○

Re: I'm gone

If the virus turns out as bad as so many in the media seem to believe it shall be-> I can't believe DT and Fox news fell for it. I still say it is just like flu and needed some extra precaution, NOT the kind of response we are instituting-close everything..

Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: I'm gone

@RichinKansas , I am truly sorry for gutsy folks to pack up and leave.

But for investors who have cash to deploy, opportunities like this may not come again for a while.

YBB
Highlighted
Explorer ○

Re: I'm gone

I think the hope for investors is the acknowledgement on how advanced biological research has come with the fantastically powerful compute power now available and the ability to electronically collaborate world wide to mention just two innovations now available to researchers.  The speed that a vaccine is developed could be the 2020 upside surprise. 

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Participant ○○○

Re: I'm gone


@Kings60Man wrote:

If the virus turns out as bad as so many in the media seem to believe it shall be-> I can't believe DT and Fox news fell for it. I still say it is just like flu and needed some extra precaution, NOT the kind of response we are instituting-close everything..

Please post back in three weeks and see if your opinion has changed. - Be well.


 

Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: I'm gone

 

Rich...thanks for your post.

Not sure why the bold position you took, means you have to leave the forum?  I assume the "I'm gone" refers to leaving.  Others might gain if you post updates to what you are doing financially.

R48

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Participant ○

Re: I'm gone


@retiredat48 wrote:

 

Rich...thanks for your post.

Not sure why the bold position you took, means you have to leave the forum?  I assume the "I'm gone" refers to leaving.  Others might gain if you post updates to what you are doing financially.

R48


I apologize, I do not always have a good choice of my words. I am not leaving the forum but leaving investing temporarily.  But I see that it might be some months before I might jump back in. I feel with the uncertainty of the current investing climate I will sleep better with my money in government money market accounts. Currently I feel it would be premature to call a bottom and get back in as I see the markets could sink quite a bit more. This is uncharted territory for me. All the economic numbers have became trailing indicators. Conditions are changing to fast. When I feel conditions are right for me to get back in I will post.

Rich

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Follower ○○○

Re: I'm gone

From statnews.com

"Here is another stat from CDC. Each year in America approximately 2 million people over the age of 65 die of all causes.
I think it’s important to factor in here that some of the causes are being shifted to Coronavirus. So the number of deaths are inflated for Coronavirus when those deaths would have would have happened anyway for other causes.

now this is morbid here but let’s just say two million people died in the United States above the age of 65 this year from Coronavirus. what is the difference between them dying from all the other things vs coronavirus?

What if 3 years worth of 65 and older persons died in one year meaning six million people? I think we would see a dramatic fall in the number of deaths for the following two years because those deaths occurred early from coronavirus instead of the other underlying causes. This is very morbid, but based on actual numbers of people who are going to die in the next 3 ish years. I’m not proposing that they do die. I’m proposing to let everyone else live and let each individual decide their own risk tolerances. Nobody banned cheeseburgers and sedentary life. Some things can’t and should not be controlled. But cheeseburgers and sedentary life will kill approximately 750k Americans over 65 each year.

Meanwhile, we are halting our economies and driving a hundred percent of financially challenged individuals onto the government dole."

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Participant ○○○

Re: I'm gone

I don't follow the reasoning that death has shifted causes. Covid-19 adds more deaths to the total death toll. I agree there is a little overlap if someone dies from Covid instead of a heart attack in the near future. If 6 million die in one year from Covid, it is true that less will die in the next 2 years but relative to the remaining population of 65 and older, the death rate will be the same. The survivors will continue to die at the usual rate. 

For investing what matters is how all this affects the economy, businesses survival and peoples spending, and how investors react. I don't see this going away until there is a vaccine, and that is estimated to be in about a year. Even if social distancing reduces the rate of spread, that will not show up in testing until months after the fact at the rate we are testing now. Its like counting fish in a pond. Once they are all counted then you can accurately count the new ones. Until then you are still counting the existing ones not knowing how many there are until they are all counted. 

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Follower ○○○

Re: I'm gone

Rich

I respect your decision as you come across as well informed. I have struggled with Covid 19 going from it is serious in the beginning to recently a probable hoax and now IT IS SERIOUS. This virus is not typical. I recommend people use proper web sites to become informed ex. CDC, and a host of others. 

One additional point is that Russia and Saudi Arabia are going toe to toe. You being in Kansas know the industries importance. I believe it was 1999 / 2000 where a barrel fell to $8.00. The Russia/Saudi price cut will have a substantial negative effect on our own oil & gas industry. I fail to recall precisely but I believe it represents something like 15% of the S&P 500 (sorry for guessing - my point is IT IS SIGNIFICANT).  The ramifications are obvious. The timing stinks. My own personal opinion is that POTUS Trump should TARIFF their oil shipments into the US during this time (don't hold your breath on that idea coming to fruition).

I wish I could pull the plug like you however that is not possible - I am staying invested for now with me finger on the trigger.

Regards

P

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Explorer ○○○

Re: I'm gone

@RichinKansas  I certainly respect your decision as well. If I were in my late 70's I might do the same thing. This market has shook out a lot of folks like you and that's part of the "finding the bottom" process. 

Good luck and stay well!

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Participant ○○○

Re: I'm gone

Sounds like we are at or near the bottom to me.  Always harken back to the WB saying of be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.  People are incredibly fearful now, so it is a time to be greedy regarding stocks.  I’ve been adding to equities and will continue doing so until I’m out of ammunition. Based on PRWCX’s holdings at the end of February, I was probably 60/40 going into the downturn and I’m probably 70 percent equities now.  Looking at shifting some of my PRWCX to separate equity and bond funds to give me a little better control of my asset allocation.  During the downturn I sold $500K of PRWCX and bought VDIGX to add to my equities.  Markets turn quickly and before we expect it. As Churchill said......never waste I crisis.  Hang in there folks......and buy stocks on sale!  I’m retired and solely living off my investments.  Delaying SS and have no pension.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: I'm gone

Your lucky calls will have to run out at some point. Can’t be right all the time. 


@youth wrote:

DOW 15,000....S&P 2000 by the Summer (if we are lucky).

Gabe


 

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Contributor ○

Re: I'm gone

I have been on these forums since 2002 and I am now 100% cash.  I got there pretty quickly, losing about 3% from the peak but very little on a ytd basis.  Some of the reason was I realized early on that my overwhelming positions in balanced funds would be a double whammy, as both were likely to go down.  Part of the reason was some confidence in my ability to get back in at some point without fear because I have not really lost anything.    I can live well without tapping my portfolio significantly and in the upcoming months, I expect to save a lot of money just by being "socially distanced".

But perhaps the main reason is that after 40 years in the field of Public Health, I recognize a serious potential for both a health and economic black swan that hasn't happened in my lifetime.  That risk exceeds my need to invest right now.

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Contributor ○

Re: I'm gone


@bilperk wrote:

I have been on these forums since 2002 and I am now 100% cash. 

I recognize a serious potential for both a health and economic black swan that hasn't happened in my lifetime.  That risk exceeds my need to invest right now.


Well said, @bilperk. Totally agree with your statement.

Good luck,

Fred

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Contributor ○○○

Re: I'm gone

Don't you think that SARS, swine, Hong Kong etc. flus could have been just as bad? Seems the difference now is 24/7 news and the internet.


@bilperk wrote:

I have been on these forums since 2002 and I am now 100% cash.  I got there pretty quickly, losing about 3% from the peak but very little on a ytd basis.  Some of the reason was I realized early on that my overwhelming positions in balanced funds would be a double whammy, as both were likely to go down.  Part of the reason was some confidence in my ability to get back in at some point without fear because I have not really lost anything.    I can live well without tapping my portfolio significantly and in the upcoming months, I expect to save a lot of money just by being "socially distanced".

But perhaps the main reason is that after 40 years in the field of Public Health, I recognize a serious potential for both a health and economic black swan that hasn't happened in my lifetime.  That risk exceeds my need to invest right now.


 

Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: I'm gone


@yogibearbull wrote:

@RichinKansas , I am truly sorry for gutsy folks to pack up and leave.

But for investors who have cash to deploy, opportunities like this may not come again for a while.


Not to discount the suffering and fear this is causing, but on the investing side, this may be a once in a lifetime event.

A good lesson too on how not to invest beyond your level of risk tolerance. My guess is that those who were too heavily in equities going in are the one's who have shot themselves in the foot. Age though is certainly a big factor. I have been waiting for something like this for over three years, having de-risked before the 2016 election. Not the time to take one's eye off the ball!

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Contributor ○○○

Re: I'm gone

I believe as you do. But the big difference is that this has become a political football. The dems are licking their chops over this opportunistic crisis. So what does the President do? Handle it as he thinks he should or handle it to satisfy the weasels. After all, impeachment didn't work.

The reason Italy spiraled out of control was due to younger people work in cities and travel back to the country and spread it to the older generation. Hopefully the emphasis on younger people in the US will take hold in their pea brains. Google spring break attitudes.


@Kings60Man wrote:

If the virus turns out as bad as so many in the media seem to believe it shall be-> I can't believe DT and Fox news fell for it. I still say it is just like flu and needed some extra precaution, NOT the kind of response we are instituting-close everything..


 

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