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Explorer ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

@BigTom - why sell bonds and buy energy stocks? Rotating into a rather beaten down sector? 

Interestingly,  yield of VGENX is higher than PIMIX  and PIGIX while total returns of PIMIX and PIGIX are better.

(I would have expected reverse between stocks and bonds.)

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Participant ○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Well, a week went buy with very little change in the indices.  So...what is next?  Continued volatility is a given and if the virus continues to plague us, then the market will respond even worse.  It might very well be that DOW 24,0000 might be ahead and the eventual bottom and a good entry point.  

Hang on to your suspenders.  

Gabe

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

bujia --

   Before you back up the truck, I neglected to mention SZC reports a coverage ratio, after all advisory fees etc etc, of .6.  (In English, SZC pays out a buck for every 60 cents it takes in, net.)   I understand that's common practice among the energy CEFs, so I regard them as trading vehicles only.  For longer term investments with a fully covered yield, XOM is starting to look like beaten down opportunity -- unless you believe dire Asian COVID slowdowns will persist long term. With their Guyana operations, XOM management reports they are still profitable even if crude hits 40 cents/bbl.  Just  I M O  !

 

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

To compare with SZC, NRGX had a rocky 6 months at the end of 2019.     Net Invest Income: $16million.  Distributions: $48mil....  (very poor distribution coverage.)  Decrease in net assets: -$75 million (from realized & unrealized losses).   The good news is that NRGX has a lot of bond positions, which I imagine means they'll be in a position to buy equities cheap when they believe the energy market starts to recover.  They have a significant position in OXY, which looks problematic to me and until the market recovers they'll be bleeding cash.    IMO both SZC and NRGX are candidates for distribution reductions.

    Hope someone more qualified than I will step in to read the reports.

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Valued Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold PUCZX and JMSIX week before last and bought BAGIX and added to PIGIX about a week ago.

Watching PFE, CSCO and MMM for new positions.

Might add to YUMC if it drops a bit more.

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Participant ○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@waffle wrote:

@BigTom - why sell bonds and buy energy stocks? Rotating into a rather beaten down sector? 

Interestingly,  yield of VGENX is higher than PIMIX  and PIGIX while total returns of PIMIX and PIGIX are better.

(I would have expected reverse between stocks and bonds.)


A quick comment.
Bond funds have had a good run over the past few years and crazy YTD returns (up 22% in as little as 2 months).
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-class/month-end-returns

The 30 year treasury is only yielding 1.56% where it was 2.33% at the start of the year.
A staggering move!
Could rates go lower? Sure.
If you believe treasury yields and headed to zero or will have negative rates, stay in bonds.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30#0

I am slowly taking some money out of bond funds (sell high) and starting to find higher yielding equity securities. 
The Energy sector has already been beaten down over the past decade and has been annihilated YTD
At some point, there is value in this sector along with their higher dividend yields. 

The spike in high yield rates (falling prices) is a concern especially in some parts of the highly leveraged Energy sector since they are a major issuer of high yield debt.  
Invest in companies in this sector that have good balance sheets and low debt. 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY

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Valued Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@youth wrote:

Well, a week went buy with very little change in the indices.  So...what is next?  Continued volatility is a given and if the virus continues to plague us, then the market will respond even worse.  It might very well be that DOW 24,0000 might be ahead and the eventual bottom and a good entry point.  

Hang on to your suspenders.  

Gabe


Gabe...some history.

This continuous monthly thread was created so that posters could post, briefly, their current "buys/sells/why".  Rules were established to keep things brief, and limit discussions to trades.  General market comments or viewpoints were restricted...to be taken to another thread.

Please consider this.

R48

 

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Contributor ○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold FTBFX, Fidelity Total Bond fund, on 6 Mar @$11.32.  As I mentioned in my mlott1 portfolio changes thread, I had some bonus money for opening a checking account with Citizens Bank, and also got their credit card, which has 1.8% cash back on everything.  I thought it would be fun to isolate this money and just sort of goof around with it.  So I opened an account at Fidelity and bought their total bond fund.

The trade has cleared and the money is waiting to be reinvested or withdrawn.  I should buy something in a few days.

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Participant ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Interesting, I thought to see several posts here. Bot new position in SCHD, lightly added to VFH, JENSX, PTY, XLE (in full disclosure I also add to XLE on Friday, pretty bad timing, I'd say). All of these I had trimmed w/ exception of XLE and SCHD (which replaced VYM that I liquidated, as reported here during the sucker rally). XLE is a new position I'm looking at as a trade, or lesson. I'm still well below my equity allocation. I sold a little BND I purchased Friday to help fund these.  Also sold my last of EDV and TLT, sorry to see them go... No intention of being a bond trader, just worked out that way. The individual stocks I'm watching APPL, MSFT, AMZN, VZ, D aren't low enough, IMO, yet. I'm probably done for the day...in more ways than one. Be careful.

Edit to add  an order for D filled, I added more to PTY and also PDI. Opened small position in CVA (> 7% yeild) to replace my SCV index I sold in sucker rally. recently. Must stop...I pull out early but can't wait to get back in...

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

   With crude in the $30s even XOM can't pump at a profit now.  Their breakeven is about $40/bbl. That is my buy point for XOM and not before. If XOM can't profit here I don't believe anyone can.  USAC also crushed: down 8%.   KNOP worse: -12%.  One wonders at what point do  debt obligations go unpaid and service contracts start going voided?   Still, bought an opening position in ET which was also shredded this morning.   Would like to catch more PCI if yield hits 9%. Will wait for that and risk missing today's oppty.

With port allocation over 50% cash and some hedging, I believe I've done about as well as I could realistically do.    Still, today's drop stings.  

One almost feels sorry for the always-fully-invested buy-and-hold Bogleheads.

 

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Participant ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I know this is not the place to argue, but my opinion is the Bogleheads will be just fine. Using asset allocation to determine when to buy or sell works fine over the long term.

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Valued Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@rhythmmethod wrote:

Interesting, I thought to see several posts here. Bot new position in SCHD, lightly added to VFH, JENSX, PTY, XLE (in full disclosure I also add to XLE on Friday, pretty bad timing, I'd say). All of these I had trimmed w/ exception of XLE and  (SCHD which replaced VYM that I liquidated as reported here) during the sucker rally. XLE is a new position I'm looking at as a trade, or lesson. I'm still well below my equity allocation. I sold a little BND I purchased Friday to help fund these.  Also sold my last of EDV and TLT, sorry to see them go... No intention of being a bond trader, just worked out that way. The individual stocks I'm watching APPL, MSFT, AMZN, VZ, D aren't low enough, IMO, yet. I'm probably done for the day...in more ways than one. Be careful.


See that's the thing, strong stocks like you mention, to which I'll add MMM, PFE and CSCO, dropped significantly at open and rebounded off the bottom rapidly. I tried a limit order on PFE and was too low and too late. Gotta decide if I still want it at the current price. This mornings biggest opportunities were fleeting.

At the risk of looking foolish, it almost feels like we just re-tested the lows. I'll shift some funds from 401K bond oef to equity funds at COB today. And I may put in another limit order.

My perception is that all the folks who were praising this economy's fundamental strength before this correction, saying ignore the noise and turn off the news, were doing it to convince themselves. When things got real, they froze up. If these stocks were good at +15%, what are they now? This is the time to ignore the short term movements and focus on the long haul.

Of course, if you believe that this 10-yr bull run is over and we will be down here for a couple years... Do we have evidence to support that?

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Contributor ○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Just bought SCHD at $49.39.  Now it's off to do some grocery shopping and pick up some books at the library.  SCHD has been on my watchlist for a long time, and no doubt it will go lower with the rest of the market.  But I can't pick the exact bottom, so I'm just gonna keep buying as long as the market is going down.

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Participant ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Placed sell orders for bond OEF's. I did not close any positions; just harvested gains and took each position midway to the low point of the designated allocation.

FNBGX - Long-Term Treasury 

FIPDX - TIPs Index

FTBFX - Total Bond

PONAX - Multi-sector

FRIFX - Real Estate Income

FDIC insured CD yields are looking pretty good on a relative basis. Increased the dry powder a bit to fill equity gaps at some point, and harvested some flight-to-safety gains. I still have strong positions in each.

Thank you,

Holiday

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Follower ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Limit buys in KMI, NRGX, DMO triggered. Starting a new position AKREX.

Small add to MINDX.

Sell QSPNX to free up cash.

Waiting for Fido to allow buying ARTNX.

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Participant ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Starter position in VYMI @ $50.

Edited to add "why?".  Continued shift to produce dividend income in taxable.

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Explorer ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Selling out of VBTLX. Low limit orders in for MSFT and a couple of  PIMCO CEFs.

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Explorer ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

adding to pci,pko, pty and utg.

looking for a bottom.     I hope 

                                                              jj

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Participant ○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold some VG LT bond funds - about 1% of my total portfolio and moved that 1% to cash,  I don't see LT bond rates getting much lower.

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Thanks to M* I can't post unless I reply to someone else, so I am bouncing off of Holiday with my post. Thanks Holiday.

I purchased more VDIGX and VDADX Vanguards Dividend Growth and Appreciation funds. I put twice as much in VDIGX.

They are down roughly 15% from top.

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