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Contributor ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Did some serious selling this morning, raising my cash to unbelievable 75% (A day late and a dollar short), now holding only the Pimco CEFs and ET (which I obviously bought too soon. Got it at 5.88 just the other day and now it's actually under 5).  Also still own KNOP & CXW, which are too late to sell now.  Am frankly stunned by the market losses -- even of fully covered good yielding equities -- not to mention chatter about 20% unemployment, schools closing for the year, airlines and cruise crashing, etc.   No  point selling any more as remaining positions are in the IRA and wouldn't get even a tax loss benefit.

Consolations:    the pension, the Soc Sec. Options trading remains very profitable, but on relatively small scale.  Health is OK.  Daughter is OK. Marriage is happy.    Plenty of time for fishing and working on my dining table project.

 

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Participant ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Limit order for ZION-N filled at $18. YtC: 8% QDI.

At least it's known this Utah bank, founded by Brigham Young, customer base won't be blowing their upcoming free government money on booze and weed. I think they will come out this disaster in better shape than most.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

That is what is so crazy about this bear market. It was caused by a stupid virus, no worse than the flu. Now business fundamentals will be hurt, further retarding the recovery.


@richardsok wrote:

Did some serious selling this morning, raising my cash to unbelievable 75% (A day late and a dollar short), now holding only the Pimco CEFs and ET (which I obviously bought too soon. Got it at 5.88 just the other day and now it's actually under 5).  Also still own KNOP & CXW, which are too late to sell now.  Am frankly stunned by the market losses -- even of fully covered good yielding equities -- not to mention chatter about 20% unemployment, schools closing for the year, airlines and cruise crashing, etc.   No  point selling any more as remaining positions are in the IRA and wouldn't get even a tax loss benefit.

Consolations:    the pension, the Soc Sec. Options trading remains very profitable, but on relatively small scale.  Health is OK.  Daughter is OK. Marriage is happy.    Plenty of time for fishing and working on my dining table project.

 


 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Just got 500 shares of PFE @ $30.60

And 100 shares of MCD @ $125.75

Why? Cuz I'm crazy!

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

OAKIX fund surely testing me right now... A diversifying component for Int'l LC exposure. On it's way to -50% dive YTD.  Better choice other than temporary cash,  anybody?  It's lagged 3 and 5 year to begin with.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@richardsok wrote:

...not to mention chatter about 20% unemployment  ...

 


Mnuchin is clueless! Why would he even say that?

I am desperately resisting the urge to raise my limit order for KO from 41.50 to snag it at $42. Somebody stop me!

Just got 1000 Baker Hughes at $9.70. Getting real now!

Just got 1000 EPD @ $10.30

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Participant ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@DJANG0 wrote:

Starter position in VYMI @ $50.

Edited to add "why?".  Continued shift to produce dividend income in taxable.


Sold today to harvest tax loss.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Oh boy.  "No worse than the flu."  I've gotta guess this is sarcasm.  Sorry, had to respond to 1952's statement.  I wish 1952 and loved ones well.  Hopefully they live in a well stocked cabin in the woods.  

 

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Participant ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@DrVenture wrote:

@richardsok wrote:

...not to mention chatter about 20% unemployment  ...

 


Mnuchin is clueless! Why would he even say that?

I am desperately resisting the urge to raise my limit order for KO from 41.50 to snag it at $42. Somebody stop me!

Just got 1000 Baker Hughes at $9.70. Getting real now!

Just got 1000 EPD @ $10.30


20% unemployment is right out of the Feds "heightened" bank stress test memorandum. It's not a prediction, but is what the Fed expects banks to be prepared for.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@DrVenture wrote:

@richardsok wrote:

...not to mention chatter about 20% unemployment  ...

 


Mnuchin is clueless! Why would he even say that?

I am desperately resisting the urge to raise my limit order for KO from 41.50 to snag it at $42. Somebody stop me!

Just got 1000 Baker Hughes at $9.70. Getting real now!

Just got 1000 EPD @ $10.30


Hi Dr. V,

Enter the "official commentary risk" we talked about in a different thread. I noticed that VTI was near the $110 area maybe an hour ago at $113 also. 

This pretty much wipes out the market gains from the last presidential election for VTI.  I think SPY may be doing a bit better in this regard, but I suspect the CAGR over the last 4 years is in the 4% range about now. 

I have been thinking a lot about your "Easy to understand" comment. Your astute observation suggests that this might get a whole lot worse than I had imagined before.

Thank you,

Holiday

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Contributor ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

By what standards do you believe that CV is worse than the flu?  Far fewer cases and deaths for CV so far. We will see when it’s over. I suggest tuning out the hype. The media wants CV to be big. Not me. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalizati...


@BB2 wrote:

Oh boy.  "No worse than the flu."  I've gotta guess this is sarcasm.  Sorry, had to respond to 1952's statement.  I wish 1952 and loved ones well.  Hopefully they live in a well stocked cabin in the woods.  

 


 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@Gary1952 wrote:

By what standards Do you believe that CV is worse than the flu?  Far fewer cases and deaths for CV so far. We will see when it’s over. I suggest tuning out the hype. The media wants CV to be big. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalizati...


@BB2 wrote:

Oh boy.  "No worse than the flu."  I've gotta guess this is sarcasm.  Sorry, had to respond to 1952's statement.  I wish 1952 and loved ones well.  Hopefully they live in a well stocked cabin in the woods.  

 


 


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

https://reason.com/2020/03/11/covid-19-mortality-rate-ten-times-worse-than-seasonal-flu-says-dr-anth...

I hope this guy is wrong or that extreme measures mitigate it substantially.

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Participant ○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

OK - I'm getting with the system and posting here instead of "what are you plans going forward". Still sitting here at 3% equities with a few bonds (no corporates).  I posted my plans there yesterday (image below - click for more details). But, I tell you, I am thinking of doing like I did in early 2009 and buying stocks only, which worked like gangbusters. I like ETFs for active trading via limit orders, but the decoupling with NAV  is unsettling. I feel a bit handcuffed with mutual funds and end-of-day gyrations.  Stock picking adds work and chains me to the computer more :-(

So, in 10-21 days (at time of max USA hospital triage), I'll proceed with the same plan, but instead of ITA, XT, AIA, PARWX and FITLX (techs and industrials first), I may buy the companies in them best positioned wrt cash flow, higher quick ratios, solid dividend record, lower cash from financing activities, or solid monopolies or franchise models. As the caseloads flatten (2-4 months?), I'll reintroduce PRDSX (small and mid-caps) and components of VDC (staples). Thereafter, add BERIX (or best of allocation funds), and bond plus funds (DBLSX, PONAX) soon thereafter followed LAST by high quality corporates SLQD VNLA or BBBMX after a shakeout of bonds.  If we get a second wave of coronavirus I'll move in an out as needed.

buy-plan-2020-03-17.jpg

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Ok, for one it's much more contagious than 'the flu',  it can be carried with zero symptoms for a week or more while one is potentially infecting others.  Saying 'the media wants it' is not just foolish, it's reckless. GImme an F-ing break.

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

STOCKS  Added to V,  ABBV and BMY.

ETFS:     FTEC, USMV & FHLC (Pharma).    Starter position in FUTY (Utilities).

And for reasons I cannot explain, I've been accumulating FENY (Energy).    Total madness.  

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Added to CEF: PKO -26% and DLS -22% in one day!  Closed end funds are getting blown out today.  

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Participant ○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

 

Exchange PFORX - Pimco International Bonds with SSGLX - Global Equity Ex-US Index

Added to VGENX - Energy

At some point, Energy has to have value. It's trading at 15-20 years lows. 
Maybe I should pray for a government bailout.

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Contributor ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Bought WFC @ $27.79, and added to two of my mutual funds, Schwab Fundamental Global Real Estate index (SFREX) and Franklin Utilities (FKUQX).  

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Contributor ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I'm not saying it is not to be taken seriously or treated with urgency. I'm saying it is getting overblown where it stands now. Looking at the data from the websites, China has leveled out below 90,000 cases with 3241 dead. Take the data for what it is worth. Of course the population in the US is mopre free-willed than China. Many here are not doing due-diligence to stay home. The projections of 1/2 of the population getting CV by some is too crazy to believe. If Dr. My point is that CV is nowhere as bad as the market has made out out to be. Because the death rate is 10 times worse than the flue does not mean 10 times more people will die. There is something else going on in this market.

To get this thread back on track I want to buy more VIG and SCHD! If I was still working I would throw everything I had into the market.


@DrVenture wrote:

@Gary1952 wrote:

By what standards Do you believe that CV is worse than the flu?  Far fewer cases and deaths for CV so far. We will see when it’s over. I suggest tuning out the hype. The media wants CV to be big. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalizati...


@BB2 wrote:

Oh boy.  "No worse than the flu."  I've gotta guess this is sarcasm.  Sorry, had to respond to 1952's statement.  I wish 1952 and loved ones well.  Hopefully they live in a well stocked cabin in the woods.  

 


 


https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

https://reason.com/2020/03/11/covid-19-mortality-rate-ten-times-worse-than-seasonal-flu-says-dr-anth...

I hope this guy is wrong or that extreme measures mitigate it substantially.


 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold all BIL and PZA.....still have 2/3 of Mint from last sold.....looking for opportunities 

 

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