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Contributor ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Bought KO @$37.65 and WFC @ 25.35.  Small buy orders in for my four mutual funds: CAIBX (American Funds Capital Income Builder; FKIQX (Franklin Income); FKUQX (Franklin Utility); and SFREX (Schwab Fundamental Global Real Estate Index fund).  

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020


@richardsok wrote:

bujia --

Thank you for your kind words, but any reference to my so-called "insight" is more flattering than I deserve....witness the carnage that is the non-cash portion of my portfolio.   Fact is, I have ZERO CONFIDENCE in my judgment. EVERY one of my current positions is deeply in the red now.   Even Pimco CEFs are being shattered again this morning and I am now busy taking losses.    Sold 50% of my portfolio's "crown jewels" today, dumping big portions of my PTY, PCI, PKO, PHK and also half of NLY and all of PPR.

I do not know if I am selling at the bottom, but I do know that (just like 2008) my instincts were right but I sold too slowly and too late. Should have been 100% into cash MUCH sooner.   My technical system was valid, but my portfolio (again like 2008) was too complicated to move in & out of the market briskly.  If my wife had any inkling of her losses, she'd scream in horror.     However, she trusts me, poor gal.

My only silver lining are my big cash positions and market-neutral options trading which continue to do very well.

 

 


I'm with you. So are many who assumed this down market would not be so severe, who knew? All my buying equity on big market drops is now in the red. Not buying more until I see new hope managing the virus, means I'll miss the bottom, better safe than sorry. I do think the equity purchase will pay off long,  I have good cash reserve and will add a bit more equity when time seems right.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I’m with you FatKat!!! I also started buying regularly as the selloff started, and I’m “in the red” on about all the purchases. But I hope in the long run they will pay off, but it may be a while before they do. I’ve still got a “large shopping list”, just less “dry powder” than I would like. 

Win
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Explorer ○○○

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

 

My 401k contribution went into Vanguard Target Date 2035 today, but I also purchased a few more shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), and added a little to my holding in PRGSX (T Rowe Price global stock fund).  I share the worry that I may be buying before another big dip — but at 34% down on the S&P 500 with comparable drops on other indices, I feel like I am getting enough extra shares per $ compared to a few weeks ago, that this is going to pay off in the long run.   So I’m still investing discretionary income to my taxable account every week, instead of spending on random fun stuff like we normally do...(Also with the lockdown, where can we go to spend it :-) ?)

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I've enjoyed reading the thoughtful discussions here. I've finally got my plan together. Since going to cash effectively in mid-January (see other posts), I am still sitting exactly the same. 86% cash, 3% stocks/metals, 11% treasuries/I-bonds/munis (no corporates). I have not yet fired any orders, consistent with my triggers. But, I'm almost ready to. My big challenge was that since I had sold so much, I now want to avoid too many small trades, but make more concentrated buys. I want to phase in the securities  into the correct cash or tax deferred (IRA or 401K) or tax advantaged (HSA, Roth IRA, Roth 401K) accounts.  

PLAN SUMMARY: Trigger 1 is when exponential rise in cases and lockdowns are at multiple urban centers. Lots of hospital case TRIAGE going on. Trigger 2 is a time of maximum pain, but virus caseload is starting to flatten (acceleration is decreasing). Trigger 3 is when caseloads are actually diminishing and VIX gets back below 25 or so. Trigger 4 is a period of rising equities, likely due to herd immunity or vaccine pending, with improved market sentiment.  While these milestones can be anticipated, it's anyone's guess as to where the trough is. I am expecting Asian markets do better by Trigger 2, and US markets follow later. I am buying after Trigger 1 in case I am wrong!

Trigger 1:  Add individual stocks, and Fidelity Low Price Stock FLPSX and Fidelity FITLX (the latter being a way to prescreen for companies heavy in tech, industrials, and healthcare, with good stewardship, higher cash reserves, less debt - ESG funds do that). I'll also add a 100K slug of MITEX (Matthews Asian Innovators), and US large caps in a 401K account. (5-12 days from now?) Load up the tax advantaged accounts first. Will go up to 13% in stocks.  I'll post my individual stock picks later. I've got charts like the one below for each trigger.trigger-1-caseload-exponential.jpg

Trigger 2: Caseload acceleration begins to decrease. Feels like Armageddon to retail investors. Hospitals overwhelmed. The horrible extent of unemployment starting to be clarified. Do as with Trigger 1 (FITLX, FLPSX), but add the etfs XT (a pseudo-"VC" pick of emergent tech) plus VDC (consumer staples). Add more individual stocks. (Morningstar premium filter shown below - I care about cash flow, debt, sustained growth history). Load up the tax advantaged accounts first, and add more to tax deferred. Leave the after-tax accounts alone (save them for later, for low risk bonds). I'll post my stock picks later. Now up to 26% in stocks. 

   premium-stock-screener.jpg

Trigger 3: Cases decrease. VIX drops. Some economic clarity developing. Time to Add Small Caps! (only actively managed funds). BOSOX and PRDSX picked because of their better performance in bear markets. Anticipate that small cap index funds will not do well due to bankruptcies and slow recovery of bond market/ credit repricing. This is a stock pickers market. Move up to 37% equities. That's my goal. I was 70/30 stocks/bonds until I retired. Now, I am more conservative.

Trigger 4: Herd immunity, or vaccine on the horizon, or virus cycle is better understood or "predictable". Bond credit quality re-rating has happened. Liquidity/repo markets no longer nuts. Start moving cash into bonds again. DBLTX, PONAX, SLQD, BBBMX, VNLA. Keep Buying I-bonds annually (40K total. 10K in each of 4 accounts)

 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Excellent patience, timing, discipline and analysis, Cheryl. Thank you for sharing.

Of the 16 buys I have made in the past 10 days only 5 are in the red and only 2 of them substantially: 1st buy of MMM and first buy of KO. Overall I am in profit territory.

Kicking myself for not buying 1000 of T @ 26.25 yesterday. I had my limit set at 26.10, raised it too late. Fear and greed are not your friends!

We all knew we were likely buying on the way down. Keep your eye on the ball folks. I expect all 16 buys to be in the green when (not if) they sign a stimulus package. At that point, if one is nervous, they should be able to sell any weak positions at a profit or close to it. I think that will happen before the end of this week. Just my opinion.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold 1/2 of my UTX purchased yesterday for 13+% gain. I thought it had been punished too much. I'll re-deploy consistent with  @CherylBoca triggers. I wish I was more of a ninja like her, but alas, I'm just a street fighter. Onward through the fog!

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

It would appear Cheryl is a lass worth watching.  And watch her I will.   I probably over-reacted yesterday and traded emotionally when Pimco CEFs cratered.  Always a bad idea.   Anyway, returned to former positions in PTY and PCI.   Yesterday's panic cost me about $2000, I figure.   

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

@DrVenture  Looks like the market is responding positively to the latest Fed moves, so I too am expecting a big upward bounce when a stimulus package is passed.  

I spent the very, very last of my investment money reserves yesterday with the KO and WFC purchases, plus adding money to my four mutual funds.  So until next month, I'm just an interested spectator.  I actually expected the market to continue down and was trying to hold the money, but as usual the temptation to buy at these low prices was too much.  Might be a good thing that I bought when I did.  

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

@mlott1 

I still have a limit order on SCHD @$38 I hope fills someday. Also SPYD at @ $20. I think it complements SCHD, and you may be interested.

Also NRUC @ $23.50 , another exchange traded bond from a FDR orchestrated depression era institution, like my purchase yesterday, but don't read anything into that....I'm just looking for safe"ish"yield!

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

There will be time when a bottom is found and tested. Don't think we are there yet. I have the same limit order in. Got pretty close recently.


@DJANG0 wrote:

@mlott1 

I still have a limit order on SCHD @$38 I hope fills someday. Also SPYD at @ $20. I think it complements SCHD, and you may be interested.

Also NRUC @ $23.50 , another exchange traded bond from a FDR orchestrated depression era institution, like my purchase yesterday, but don't read anything into that....I'm just looking for safe"ish"yield!


 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

@Gary1952 

Fingers crossed, I've only invested about 1/4 of where I want to end up. Wishing for even lower prices probably isn't going to win us any popularity contests :)

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Frequent Contributor

Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Sold BKR that I bought at $9.75 for $10.55 (+800/8.2% profit).

Sold KMI that I bought @ $10.15 for $12.00 (+920/18.22% profit).

Why? Concentrating on wide moat stocks, these were both no moat.

Also, KMI was in my taxable account. If I buy it back at a lower price, it will be in my 401K, given the high dividend yield. 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

So there's a host of unknowns about CV and the market.   But we do know that our government is eager to throw rivers...even  oceans of liquidity into businesses, infrastructure and families to stave off collapse -- and do it large and do it fast.  Again the term "trillions" is casually bandied about discussing new expenditures IN ADDITION to already fearful levels of "normal" government obligations & entitlements we've become used to.

I wonder if all this finally kicks inflation awake?  Will the dollar status as world trade currency start to erode?   There may be a glut of oil, but there's no glut of gold.

Bought another block of IAU.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

Will be looking at opportunities to buy (more) Walmart, if the price declines. With restaurants closed, why would brick and mortar grocers not see the benefit, at least short term? Would like to get it at a 4-star price, like $95 though.

As a side note to the issue of inflation ticking up and potential currency devaluation, that would make our exports more attractive. So wide moat U.S. multinationals, maybe?

Just spit-balling here.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

@DrVenture 

You'd think, but overtime pay, the costs of new hires and infrastructure expansion cuts into the profits from increased demand.

 I think WalMart is a great longer term play. 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

For those interested, in the M* article on companies with "fortress" balance sheets, KO was listed as wide moat, low uncertainty, and a five star rating.  Not a bad trifecta, eh?  

 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

The greedy investor in me wants to catch the exact bottom. The savvy investor in me says buy because we are low. Any of us are lucky to be within 10% of the bottom or top, except for you know who. I have only bought 100 shares of VTI with outstanding limit orders lower. So there is ample dry powder still available.

I think we are all anxious to get recovery underway. Unfortunately I think it will take time. This CV needs to turn the corner. It is so frustrating.


@DJANG0 wrote:

@Gary1952 

Fingers crossed, I've only invested about 1/4 of where I want to end up. Wishing for even lower prices probably isn't going to win us any popularity contests :)


 

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

richardsok  I would expect deflation through the job losses, and then, like you, I fear for inflation after these multi-trillion stimulus policies are in play a while. I use I-bonds for that (plus a bit of precious metals), though it is under 5% of my portfolio. I buy 10K I-bonds for me, my husband, one of our LLCs, and an irrevocable life insurance trust, every year. So, 4 entities - 40K per year. I have to think they'll be rewarding at some later point.

Anyone seeing my posts - I am probably set up to buy in after the market bottom (at least a local bottom), but that's because of where I exited the market. If I were 10 years younger, I'd be doing FAR more active trading through this period of time, and I enjoy watching the posts of those who do. I've set up my Morningstar stock screener (posted earlier), but don't yet plan to fire.

I have a gut feel (hahahaha - that's worth nothing...) that media images of U.S. mass burial images will result in a good buy point, and I think that will happen even though we are starting to see Italy's caseload acceleration decreasing (i.e., going up, but up less fast). I think this, even with massive US Gov't stimulus. For my later buy triggers, I just feel I need to wait until the impact of unemployment is bit more discernable. This may chop off some rewards on my large cap purchases, but allow a better entry point for small caps.

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Re: BUY-SELL-WHY, MARCH 2020

I just trimmed my UTX again in 1/2.  Day trades are not what I wanted to be doing with my time, but I will survive. Bob and weave, bob and weave...Good luck, all.

Edit to add - Well it appears I trimmed too much too soon. However this serves as an example of how I think this will turn up in a much slower fashion when I repurchase in 10-14 days. Stay safe.

 

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